Member Info for barchid

Any guidance from your contacts yet ?

In 2018 they gave a trading update on 10 Oct & in 2019 it was 15 Oct.
Their website says the trading update for 2020 will be in October but does not give a date, this has historically been the timing of their autumn updates

Fairdealer
I think our views on Mars are pretty similar, the Wells purchase with the cut price placing to institutions was their "bridge too far" imho.
I was just lucky in my timing to sell Mars in early January & I fully agree re EIS schemes and VCT's too, which for income and capital are permanently tax free.
As I said earlier I'd be happy to pay more for MARS once we have a much clearer idea of direction and debt reduction.

@supercharger
I fear you are confused, I never said anything about an accountant, HMRC yes, but not an accountant.
Long term for me is years, have had gold shares for many years, as I mentioned I held Mars for 6 years in varying sizes, just like shares in SE Asia which I started investing in many years ago.

@supercharger
Having been a long term holder of gold shares I am happy to take my own advice thanks very much.
I became interested in them having spent a morning down Kloof mine, then the richest seam & second deepest in the world in 1985, on the then Transvaal,but you probably don't remember that ?

@supercharger
Now you are starting to sound desperate, who cares if your prediction on price movements is correct or not, most of us here are looking for reasons whyit might go better, sales figures could well be a reason, but let's see them then make predictions ?
We all know that a broken clock tells the correct time twice a day.....

@fairdealer
I am sure you are delighted to have received this months complimentary tax advice from the MARS board's personal IFA ?
Most people who were attracted to Mars pre-covid probably had 2 reasons to buy, a good yield and a potential take over target.
People who looked for the former could thus be assumed to likely hold it in their ISA or SIPP. Oddly enough our boards IFA appears to have overlooked that rather obvious fact !
Given the speculation this weekend of CGT being increased to taxpayers top income tax rate buying purely for capital gain will not be nearly so attractive as it is at present.
I have traded MARS quite happily for about 6 years in and out, in my SIPP and it was largely due to an unwelcome tax bill due in January that I sold the bulk of mine and took the cash out through drawdown to pay HMRC so that I now have just a token holding. I wasn't clever, I was just lucky, but I'm still following this plc in hope but am happy to sit & wait to see how the uncertainties pan out, and that is a subjective judgement which we will all have different views on. I would be happy to buy them again higher up once the fog has cleared, certainly not on the advice of someone who wasn't aware of the size of their pub estate !

@Supercharger
Genuinely delighted to hear how well you are doing for yourself.
Just hope that your stated trading/investment income is more accurate than your oft stated number of pubs you believe MARS own.
If not you will be paying more tax to HMRC than necessary.
Other than that, any chance we can keep this board to Marstons please ?

Daave, it is indeed really good to get your input, especially as you are "at the coalface" and not a saloon bar commentator, you see exactly what is/has been going on.
You caught me there with the New River Reit/Hawthorn deal, I never saw an rns on that but I did recall something, and looking it up I see that Hawthorn, who manage NRR's pub portfolio, bought 29 pubs in January 2020, which the news at the time did not have a price for the deal. I think Findlay mentioned the sale in his post results run through on debt reduction. Not a huge number of pubs but it all fits in with the picture we have been looking at.
As a matter of interest Hawthorn, after the Marstons & Bravo deal, hold over 700 pubs a size which surprised me.

@Daave
I did get the 1400 number from their website & they sort of break that up by saying they have 500 local pubs, 200 pubs with food, and "about 400 pubs in our tenanted estate"
So I guess that is about as close as we can get to precise numbers, they have Pitcher/Piano's , not many 18, and a few Revere hotel/pubs. The website is not updated massively regularly so it is not impossible that the 137 which went to Admiral for £44.9mill are still included in that 1400 figure, but whether or not they are we have to be about as right as we can be with the numbers off their site.

@adv
Many thanks, no, not only had I missed this but I called Jarvis dealing desk myself last week and they told me that it had yet to be announced !
But I notice the FT have it correct, just goes to show, don't trust the headlines !!!
Thanks again, & a very snappy dividend....

@Rivaldo
As I said a few times before, you are such a keen ramper, snag is you have been doing it from £30 down to 260p this week, with no shame !
I would still love to know how you think it is not a really tough gig in making money out of crowd control systems when the best customers are closed to the public, or if open, very empty ?
Mark you at 260p with the old CEO back in the saddle there is a better chance now than from £30 down to £3.
I can't remember Syd James in "Carry on Ramping", perhaps you're making it happen ?

Supercharger
I am sure we are all aware that Marstons sell to supermarkets.
However they are supermarkets and pubs are pubs.
Can we keep on subject please ?
I was hoping you might have been happy that I was aware of what is on the Mars website, but now you are saying that they may not know how many pubs they own ?
We are also aware that they supply other pubs which they do not own, but then they do not appear on their balance sheet do they ?
All I am trying to do is to attempt to assess what the plc is worth after liabilities have beeb deducted from assets, and their likely cash flow evaluated
Why should I want the share price to fall ?
I really do not understand where you are coming from. I am supposing that most posters on this board wish to evaluate facts rather than try to puff the share price up or down.

Supercharger
I do indeed consult the Marstons website which says, amongst many other things, that they "own around 1400 pubs".
You, I recall, have mentioned the number of 2000 at least twice.
Where are the other 600 please?
Also has the website been updated since they sold a bunch of them at a loss late last year ?
This board really should be about facts, don't you agree?

@Red
Very pertinent comment, the way the stock price has performed, down from over 60p to about 20p in a pretty straight trajectory over 5 years one would have hoped for decent restraint.....

Fiona
Thanks for that insight, appreciated.

Fairdealer
Thanks for your clarification which is what I thought the position was, but merger law has always been a bit of a minefield so I am grateful for your thoughts.
One thing is for sure though, once an investigation starts it can take on a life of its own and timelines are v difficult to predict, even more so when it is cross border, as in this case.
Let us hope RF has a plan to find the cash needed to keep MARS going in the meantime, they had discussions with their lenders after the announcement but at that time a referral seemed unlikely, hopefully they will continue to oblige ?

Fiona/Fairdealer
Just to clarify, there has been much comment re box ticking etc re the late response by Mars to CMA, but the fundamental fact is that the CMA, since last week, are now investigating the proposed JV and the deadline for their phase 1 decision is 20 Oct ?
Thus any hopes of the JV going through in September are misfounded and the investigation can take rather longer even after phase 1 ?
That is my understanding and would be delighted to learn that it is a misunderstanding, but if it is correct this surely leaves MARS exposed financially as the dash for the JV they were expecting shortly will be delayed ?
Please advise

Sailor
It will be interesting to see how dismal or not these are going to be, but the basic business is good, except for this year selling crowd control systems to theme parks that are basically closed is a pretty tough gig.
Against that the original CEO is now back in the seat and as Qd pointed out the CFO is buying a few shares so I guess we ignore the figures and read the statement very carefully ?

Fairdealer
I doubt you will be hung drawn & quartered tonight, most of that gang will be out on the 3rd day /last day, of the week for eat out to help out .
Probably be tomorrow and I'll be abused too, but am still intrigued with the SP today. Did someone know something, hence the earlier weakness ? I guesss we'll never know.