Member Info for Bamps21

Hi Tmt
Great post.
I always stand back from Brokers notes it will be out of date tomorrow.
I try to look at the positives though
2m oz minimum, 9 months ago we would have all excepted that figure.
The mid case of 5.4m oz is very conservative and would probably have been ok 4 months ago with the dimensions that were issued in June for the High Grade Sulphide Zone and surrounding Breccias.
To add only 1.65m oz for the New Breccias and the rest of the Breccias looks like a figure plucked out of the air especially as there are no dimensions to work from.

Now if I can get a scale rule and come up with a rough square area I'm sure their experts can, this is a copy of my workings if the whole volume was just Breccias:-

"I'm happy with 176,500 square metres
x1000 deep =176,500,000 cu m
The Specific Gravity of Breccias varies between 2.67 and 2.87
Using the grades for Breccias on the plan
cemented >1g/t
crackle >0.5g/t
Average minimum = 0.75g/t
Total Au oz = 11.7m oz"

If the average grade is 1.5g/t then the total = 23.4m oz

If Berenberg get to the same volume as me then they would have been using a very low grade of 0.3g/t.
When you can see a drill hole of over 300m with 0.99g/t 0.3 looks unlikely.

I'm of the opinion the average grades will be around 1.5g/t and maybe higher.
Without confirmed data/dimensions though it's all best guesstimates from everyone.

The one glaring omission from this note is the lack of any value attached to the copper or cobalt, Havieron is not just a gold mine.
The MRE will change all this guesswork, let's hope my figures are close.
:))

A statement about the Gruyere Mine really shows what Havieron is about.
"With estimated ore reserves of more than 3.5 million ounces (Moz) of gold to be produced over an initial 13-year mine life, the project is claimed as one of the most significant undeveloped gold deposits in Australia."
Costs to date $610m
7years from discovery to first gold bar.

What's the next goldfield directly north about 100km?
Answer:- Ernest Giles- Meadows

Hi Rubic
These 9 rigs will gradually disperse around the Havieron 12 block mining lease to see what else is there. In the last RNs they were on about using the Skytem Aero survey to explore it, it's a superior Aem and can reach greater depths.

I doubt they will move to Scallywag unless a joint venture happens .

ATB:))

Oops not going to take 5 minutes:))

I'm not surprised by the length of time they are taking drilling at Scallywag, although I am surprised at the amount of drills I wasn't expecting this many.

You have to realise the shear scale of Scallywag, it's far greater area than Havieron.
It's the coincidence of the IP survey and the magnetic surveys they are targeting.
Kraken's coincidence is about 500x500x500m deep = 125,000,000 cu m
Blackbeard 's Northern coincidence is about
750m x 750m x 1,000m deep = 562,500,000 cubic metres

You can see the size of it, it's going to take 5 minutes.
If Newcrest are spending say $100m on exploration drilling on Havieron, then I would expect $100-150m on Kraken and 200m on Blackbeard North and maybe that again on the South just to prove their size. That's without London or Barbossa.

If they hadn't found anything they would have moved on to the next target, the fact that they have brought in a Diamond drill says it all for me.

Hi Tmt
Thanks for that, looks like they will be ok.
I always look forward to your posts to, don't work too hard.

Hi Bully
I have to admit I know nothing on spread betting seems too risky for me.
Antipa joint ventures with NCM ,Rio and one other are very early stage exploration and those terms are no where near Havieron. NCM have bought 10% of their shares to start with and left Antipa to do the exploration and they are concentrating on Minyari their 100% licence. Interesting Minyari is on the NW trend from Havieron, Scallywag, Blackhills, Winu.
Only exciting thing about Antipa for me is Parlay which is sat partly on their licence.
All sorts of things cross my mind with that situation like jv, a buy, a sale, gold target

ATB:))

Thanks Ruprah, Flashy500
They seem to be Ok so far.

I certainly hope Ggp don't get bought out or sell Havieron, this has been the ride of a lifetime and I certainly don't want it to end.
I can see why investors are getting excited about other firms being taken over but this share is not about that. It's about a little firm having a dream coming into reality and taking all its many followers with it.
The momentum is unstoppable , why shouldn't NCM be with us and enjoy the ride, they have a lot to profit from Ggp assets not just Havieron.
Ggp have a very good hand and hold a lot of the cards.

Sorry Bamping again. Be in the Oxford Dictionary next year
All the Best :))

Hi Trucky
The exploration licence covered Havieron 12 blocks and the whole of Scallywag and Blackhills South.
Before the Mining Lease could be applied for Newcrest needed to have their 40% ownership legalised, so for a short time they had 40% of Scallywag.
Once the mining lease was granted the Scallywag exploration licence reverted back to 100% ownership.
NCM seem to be doing everything by the book.
ATB:))

Thanks Tom

Hi Bully
I really can't see NCM committing funds to get Havieron or GGP.
They've just raised funds for Red Chris.
The investment at their flagship Cadia is still vast and also building a new Molybdenum processing fascility, new activities to their mines in New Guinea .
Plus their other joint ventures with Antipa,Newmont, Havieron.
I just can't see them borrowing loads to buy us out but if another major moves in they might have to. These guys don't normally step on each other's toes.
ATB:))

Hi Tom
I'm Ok but my son and granddaughter both got covid, she's locked in her student halls in Bristol. They're both ok at the moment but she says they are running out of beer. I didn't realise beer cured Corona Virus:)) Maybe lemonade.
I'm keeping away.

NCM have the exploratory permissions to drill on the 12 block Havieron mining lease.
Ggp would be daft to let go of the mining lease while that exploration takes place.
Scallywag is 100% GGP and are drilling it independently of NCM.

Hope you are keeping safe
ATB:))

Hi GGPT
Just a point the PFS is 60% not 70% we may have to wait another year for the Full Feasibility Study
ATB:))

Hi Tom
I think the time for taking over the 100% passed long ago.
Newcrest have a lot of other pressing commitments on their budgets.
Spending another $100m on a joint venture at Scallywag would be a much better use of funds and keep GGP on tow for their other tenements.
They're working well together why change.
If NCM make a bid for Havieron it could start a bidding war for the whole company. NCM are playing this softly softly in my opinion.
ATB:))

Hi Mush
I think that was Hydrogen getting excited:))
If you add all the mineralisation up though the gold equivalents may get to that.
If the specific gravity rises in the Breccias and the average grade doubles then 20-30m of gold ounces could be on
I know too many ifs :)))

Hi ProfQ
I agree with what your saying about getting to 88p but I'm not so sure about the £1.44.
What about the copper if it gets to 0.4% in the MRE it will be as big as Winu a tier 1 mine without gold, maybe 10-15m gold oz equivalent.

Regarding C&Cs comment on Kirkland Lake they've plenty of gold but hardly any copper.

Additionally the Cobalt has not come into the picture yet but it will. The peak of over 4,000ppb is above average.
Also the credits of minerals from the sulphides have yet to come into play eg the Platinum Group of Elements, arsenides,tellurides and others.
This time last year Mickey's dream of 74p looked impossible, I was dreaming of 10p when it was stuck around 1.6p.
Scallywag might not produce gold ounces I hope it does but it still could be another Winu.
GGP is a multi mineralised company and not just gold, although the amount of gold is very pleasing.
ATB:))

Hi 944T
I don't know whether you saw this post.
Hi 944
Barbossa is big over 2km long. It's in a low gravity area similar to London but away from the hinge. There's been no magnetic coincidence issued that I can see, still very early days .
The drill that Paddy spotted looks further to the NW in a very low gravity spot.

If they do drill Barbossa this time it should be right in the centre where the 3D gravity model is, but I don't think it will happen this time as it's not a priority."

I think it's very early days and more geophysics are needed to pinpoint drilling targets and produce a coincidence model.

The line of drills elsewhere on Scallywag is a common practice to find the extremities of an anomaly as seen on Saddle Reef and Meadows West and East.
Some of these will be blind or lacking mineralisation when they fall outside the anomaly

Hi Dorsett
I wouldn't pay too much on those figures
600x600x500 deep (400 to 900m depth below surface
If it's a square = 540m tons
If it's an ovoid = 418m tons

The sizes are now 650x350m x about 1000m
Depending on the mass of the sulphide and Breccias the tonnage will increase, plus also Paddy allowed 70% to allow for the Dyke, areas with no Breccias and the surrounding rocks of the Breccias.
The areas of no mineralisation are filling in so I'm expecting the tonnage to lift higher.

Hope that helps

From a previous post I worked out how many ounces if it was just Breccias.

"I've been playing about with the plans and a scale and come up with a few area measurements.
I'm happy with 176,500 square metres
x1000 deep =176,500,000 cu m
The Specific Gravity of Breccias varies between 2.67 and 2.87
Using the grades for Breccias on the plan
cemented >1g/t
crackle >0.5g/t
Average 0.75g/t
Total Au oz = 11.7m oz

I've not allowed for the High Grade Zone.

I consider this to be a minimum total
Reasons
If there are chalcopyrites in the Breccias the specific gravity will rise.
Additional HGZ ounces.
The previous plans show the Breccias as having 2g/t and 1g/t which would double my total.
The Breccias around the HGZ are also about 2g/t.
I believe 1.5g/t to be a fair estimate and would = 23.4m oz
In conclusion there's a lot of gold in that hole :)))))

Hi Hydrogen
Are the 2 Northern Breccias linked, maybe but doesn't look like it.
The New zone hasn't had that many drills in it but there are a few that have clipped it.
This is what I posted on 29th Sept about it

"The NW end I hadn't twigged before, the plan views show a small cemented breccias circle at 150m from the top of the ore body and it travels down ward widening out to about 200m wide and continues at depth .
I don't believe it is part of the New Zone but maybe. It will certainly add more ounces to everyone's estimates, at 200m dia for 1000m would be about 4-5m oz and if 100m dia about 2-3m.

Still a lot of drilling to firm up the Breccias in the NW"

The New Breccias sizes are 300x300x100
so it's smaller
That works out roughly 1m oz for every 1g/t
Now there's that massive sulphide bit in the middle and we've not much to go on with that, assuming about 10% @4g/t .
I think 2-3m oz would be a good estimate for the zone.
So for the 2 zones I'm estimating 4-8m oz
more drilling should narrow that.

Studying this zone in a bit more in depth.
There are 2 plans on the website showing drill intercepts, it also shows a dotted shape of the Northern Breccias Zone.
This zone is not shown on the cross sections.
The top level of the zone is about 950m below surface with a depth of 300m to about 1250m.
The step out drills to the NE have stepped out too far , they've gone underneath it for example HAD48 309m @ 0.99g/t from 1215m below surface to 1524m.
(NB the depths shown on the plan are from the Reduced Level which is about 300 below surface)
Had78 step out drill to the NW has veered away from it 208.6m @1.2g/t from 1106m from surface to 1314 .

The next NCM drilling update will hopefully have targeted this zone as the edges are not defined especially the bulge protruding from the ovoid to the North.

The cemented Breccias zone in the NW of the ovoid shown as a circle doesn't look like it is part of the New zone .
It starts at about 650m below surface and looks like the top of pipe structure that broadens out at the base and continues below known depths.

In conclusion there are 2 cemented Breccias Zones both with massive sulphide zones in the Northern section of the ovoid