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If Cadia has an AISC of $32 after processing 35mt will Havieron get anywhere near .
Cadia and Havieron will be producing similar amounts of gold.
Havieron will be transporting, crushing and floating 10 times less Ore
Its negatives are Tolling charges, bismuth removal, less copper, no molybdenum to speak of and maybe less silver (I’m not sure of the figures).

Highly likely with the First Ore being high in copper the very first ore will have a very low AISC but I doubt we will ever get to Cadia margins of $1660 per oz

Cadias upgraded 35mt plan is coming on stream, how does this compare with Havieron:-
35mt with a gold grade from the PFS is forecasted to be around 0.38g/t with a min recovery rate of 70% would give production of around 315,000oz pa.

Havieron 3mt plan with a grade of around 3.5g/t with a recovery rate of 88% gives an annual production of around 295,000oz

Therefore with 10 times more tonnage Cadia is going to produce practically the same gold oz as Havieron

NB far more copper at Cadia

Cadia is a global giant

Will it be sold as hinted?

Hi Panama
Heard you been having drinks without me :((

It’s exciting times but I am hesitant about NCM being taken over.
A big concern like Newmont , our little project in comparison will get swallowed up in all the other news.
It’s not been a good ride with Newcrest with last year’s 5% debacle but better the devil you know.
The pace though that Newcrest have put on this project has been tremendous.

I personally hope this takeover gets turned down and back to status quo or Ggp prevail over Havieron and Telfer

“Mr Morgan said Newcrest’s stake in Lundin could be worth $1.2 billion while its stakes in the province around Telfer and Havieron could fetch $1.9 billion."

That’s not something dilution could handle that’s serious cash.
Maybe some shares will be handed out as our commitment but this is an issue for these new board members to handle and achieve the funding

A takeover of Newcrest is not necessarily going to be good for us.
Very difficult to find info on exploration drilling on Newmont website.

Reuters say analysts expected $31 Aus, undervalued
https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/australian-gold-miner-newcrest-gets-169-bln-buyout-offer-newmont-corp-2023-02-05/

Hi Red
If the takeover transpires I don’t think it will have any contract obligations on us, the legal side is that we still own 30%.
The question is will Newcrest increase its asset value in a defensive position, I believe they certainly will along with other assets they possess.
Judging by other takeovers in this sector it could be swift.

On Greatland’s point of view increasing the asset value of their other licences seems imperative to me.
The sale of Ggp assets in Havieron could happen soon after but who knows what will happen depending on who takes NCM over.

Newcrest hit a downward path a couple of years ago.
Telfer was running out of ore
Walfi golpu couldn’t get permissions
Lihir hit ore problems
Cadia was going into an in between phases
Havieron still exploring and issue with soft ground for the Decline
Investment in Solgold static
Sold royalties in Frute de Norte.

They went and spent out on Red Chris and Pretium with immediate increase in reserves.

There’s a large increase in production due in 12 months time and thereafter.

Red Chris open pit running down, underground bulk cave due for first ore 2026
Pretium producing, lot of exploration to be undertaken.
Cadia 35mt operation due to start 2023-24
Lihir new phase progressing
Telfer new cutbacks extending life
Havieron first Ore due 2024.

NCM market cap Aus$20bn
NEM Aus$53bn
Barrick Aus $50bn
Fortesque Aus$67bn
Rio Aus$176bn
BHP Aus$240bn

If there’s a bid for NCM it will come hire than it’s price today, the market cap did get to $40bn and without a takeover could get back to that.
$30-40bn Aus seems like a reasonable price to me might go more depending on how many bids come in.

Hi Ben
I doubt they will delay the DTM as it will increase the price of the asset.
Other assets will start coming out of the closet:))

Shaun made 2 remarks at the Town Hall.
First one he said that if he was the CEO before they hit the HAD005 drill he would have offered $1 for Telfer.
Second one was taken over Winu.

All rumours and here say in my opinion.
Newcrest presentations only offer 4 or 5 projects for future growth.

Havieron is about to get promoted from Tier 2 to Tier 1 , Newcrest will not put it on the market before that happens.
Big money will be involved if a sale is reality.
If Newcrest doesn’t go ahead with the Decision to Mine at this time the clause in the jv will allow Ggp to buy up NCM 70%, but that decision will have reduced the price. Can’t see it happening personally, NCM in too deep financially.
Any sell of Telfer NCM will have to stump up the huge costs of reinstatement or take a low offer

Shaun’s statement in the last Town Hall meeting
“ a buy out of Ggp will need mouth watering sums”

Interesting conversation on this forum
https://goldrefiningforum.com/threads/bismuth-refining-method.9068/

“Anybody have any knowledge or thoughts? I found out that Bi forms a compound with gold, and since I collect elements, I grabbed some bismuth, melted it on the stove in an iron skillet, and threw in a gold ring, cause I figured nothing would happen. Well, the gold ring, 18K was gone in about 5 minutes. The excess Bi just oxidized up and then I had nothing but powder.

Well, given that gold and copper don't melt on your stove, the Bi must have reacted with the Au and or Cu.

Seems like it could be used, especially IF the Bi is highly selecting the gold to react with??

Interesting transcript of a podcast by the Royal Society of Chemistry on casting with bismuth
https://www.rsc.org/periodic-table/element/83/bismuth

This is an extract from a Harvard paper

“Our thermodynamic modeling demonstrates that Bi melts scavenged gold from hydrothermal fluids. Subsequently, sulfidation of Bi melts resulted in precipitation of gold, which was captured by growing magnetite. We thus propose that Bi melt scavenging gold is responsible for significant volumes of gold inclusions enclosed by magnetite at Beiya.
https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..19.4108Z/abstract

From this you can see that molten bismuth draws in more gold forming accumulations.

Hi B4zh
Ppm to g/t calculator
http://www.endmemo.com/sconvert/ppmg_ton.php

Hi Ben
You asked a question about the first Ore coming out.
As I mentioned there’s a lot of difference between reaching the ore and first production, there’s an in between situation of development ore.
This is ore coming out from the process of forming the infrastructure through the ore body.
Shaun dodged this a few times in London, it’s not significant amounts and intermittent.
In my opinion this will happen near the end of the year and early next year.
Once it starts it will keep coming out intermittently.
When the Eastern and Northern Fronts start it will be nearly all Development Ore as the access drives are nearly all through the Ore.
This will be stockpiled on the Run of Mine stockpile by the Box cut prior to primary crushing.
Once Ore starts coming out it will be a continual operation slowly ramping up over the year till the 3mt maximum is reached sometime in 2025.

Hi Strudel
Thought you would have tried to squeeze a few Ben Nevis’s into it , coming from Scotland :))

The Telfer processing train was mentioned in the last interview and could Havieron fill the 10m capacity.
Sandeep mentioned that Havieron ore was 10x the grade of Telfers, so only 1m tons needs to go through the mill to achieve Telfers revenues of 10m tons.
The margins on this should be a lot higher, less tonnage equals less waste rock, less tailings, less acids and less wear and tear on machinery.
3m tons should be really profitable:))

You may have fallen off your chair when I mentioned that figure but stop and have another look at the Lasonde curve.
If it has a steep a rise as it suggests then anything is possible
When you compare NCM and Ggp mcap , Havieron has a different effect on both
NCM have bigger capex to find, more overheads, Telfers running costs keeping it going.
Ggp will only have Havieron as an income if they don’t come across other sources but Havieron is a very unique orebody , the economics yet are still in its infancy of what we’ve actually got there.
Still open at depth, still open to the SE, E , N and NW.
Still filling in with high grade.

Hi Spades
If we have an early MRE that hasn’t had time to increase reserves from resources then that means there’s less ore for the FS to be based on.
An early MRE will up the resources but under TSX rules they can’t be used which NCM are governed by.
NCM joining TSX was not the best thing for Havieron.

I didn’t invest here to remove my money early, in hindsight perhaps I should’ve but I’m still putting money in monthly. If we had all wanted to sell at 38p no one would have got anywhere near it the price could have collapsed putting the company in jeopardy.
From my first investment of c0.6p to 16p is the same rise as 16p- £4.32.
I’m not saying it could get to that but the sp will get to high figures if Shaun builds the company to what he is suggesting.
In the short term it’s painful but low price is a buying opportunity.