Member Info for Balanced66

Hants

I had a quick listen of the Twitter video. It just confirms my view that AVCT are many months away from getting a product launched. He mention a number of hurdles - first one is getting prototype back from Cytvia and then validation tests clinical test etc. He said he was "confident" (so just a hope really) that accuracy will be above 90 per cent and 95 for both benchmarks. He didn't base this on any facts or company research.
With these tests it's also about being first to market and maximizing income which is what NCYT is doing as I said before PCR tests will always be used and imo we are some time away from instant tests possibly being used for screening especially when AVCT may be releasing their product on a mass scale (if they get it right) towards the end of the year - sorry that's how it seems to me for timescales listening to the Twitter vid today.

WHO unlikely to approve instant tests imo without high enough accuracy?

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20200505005741/en/Polymerase-Chain-Reaction-PCR-Real-Time-PCR-Testing

https://pharmaphorum.com/partner-content/covid-19-detection-kits-market-will-touch-8-5-billion-by-2026/

Market is forecast to grow problem with instant tests they will supplement PCR tests as they are not accurate enough at the moment their accuracy may increase but the rush is on for instant tests so that there will be a smaller market share for those companies as more entrants enter the market. The instant test companies do not seem to have created a market lead like NCYT being first to market.

Yes there may be an impact but nothing is ready yet or a large mass scale and for developing countries I would have thought these instant tests would need to get WHO accreditation to gain traction in those countries? Unless they are used as screening tools with PCR to confirm?

https://www.connexionfrance.com/French-news/France-reports-216-Covid-clusters-prompting-health-warning-from-Sante-Publique-France

If Optigene partnered with NCYT who provided testing kits then does that mean NCYT kits work or will work with saliva?

Prof Peter Piot

Prof Peter Poor on Andrew Marr show:

"PP: I’m quite optimistic that we will find a vaccine and
the reason I’m optimistic is that we know already from
nature that our body can clear the virus. That is, you
know that means that that it is possible to eliminate the
virus in a natural way and that’s actually what a vaccine
is trying to do. You have to prove that it works. That can
take time, take months and months so you have to make
sure that it’s absolutely safe and you have to produce
manufacture billions and billions of doses and that can
take time and the capacity is not there in the world. So
it will be ’21 before we can – we should count on a
vaccine to you know to contain this epidemic, and then
my view is that probably we’ll still have to continue some
other methods, it’s not going to be the magic bullet
because it’s unlikely that the first vaccine on the market
will be 100% effective. So – but let’s hope it reduces
severe disease. It will prevent the virus from killing us, so
I think without a vaccine I think we’re in deep trouble."

Apparently he also is against quarantine for travellers as no point now should have been done early on and he thinks second wave will be localised outbreaks.

Many of these experts tend to have different views. So no one really knows direction of virus but most experts tend to agree from my understanding that virus will be around for longer than some people think.

Think GM gave a clue or indication about this in the 2/6 update:

"Despite the decision from HAS not to reimburse our COVID-19 test, we will continue to offer the test for private patient testing and evaluate new ways of supporting the French market. Our manufacturing scale-up is progressing to plan and we look forward to supporting current and additional countries with their testing requirements."

New ways of supporting may extend to a new 2 gene test? It's possible Anglo/French co why wouldn't he want to keep French happy after all they are a customer focussed company.

The other thing is that no one really knows about tomorrow. There might be a vaccine or they might not. There might be a second wave in the proper sense in the winter or there might not. There may be a move away to other non PCR type tests but none stand out or are being used in any significant numbers.
Avct is not a diagnostic company it is not he first or primary activity. Companies like NCYT are. POC machines are still being developed. Genedrive's if I'm not mistaken was to be ready by the end of the year.
I wouldn't put it beyond a company like NCYT whose business is diagnostics to develop an instant test as well. However it will only release it if it develops one when it is happy with its accuracy etc. NCYT has shown itself to be one step ahead of competitors so I wouldn't be surprised if other tests come out later.

Wasn't directing that at you Retireboy as you have tried to reason in your posting but others who pop up now and then.

Aren't all these points against an investment in other covid stocks that have yet to make a sale or are in some sort of "protype" but we can't say more about it yet. I think companies like AVCT would love to have even one of the smallest sales of NCYT. Other company investors have got a cheek talking about NCYT sales when they do not even have a test ready and have not even seen a prototype or made a single sale of 1 test of £8.
Come back when you have sold a test at least then we'll debate with you.

A share doesn't crash through the placing price so quickly in a matter of days the placing price at 120p is a technical support (I'm not a chartist) doesn't inspire confidence.

While UK competitors are still struggling to bring to market their first tests we have our second generation kits ready for sale!

Flush
Share prices of covid stocks rose so quickly and manyfold. The retrace of the same stocks is due to market sentiment changing vaccines etc. But also imo the market doesn't yet know how to value them and is waiting for more evidence - results sales products partnerships etc to arrive at a valuation. Our company should keep coming out with this evidence going forward - it hasn't disappointed yet and the market will then revalue upwards imo.
In this scenario not all the covid stocks will rise back together some will languish or fall as the market is not convinced by their sales etc. People want to assess which will survive going forward. At the end of the day we are buying into businesses and we would want to be in the strongest and best ones imo. Dyor.

One share where management do deserve their incentives so what's the issue? TW does not add up in his reasoning. If he is saying that they are self motivated well that can't be true entirely can it? Sales are over £100 million!

All managements are self motivated to some extent as they have share options bonuses etc. Plus the shares have risen exponentially lol! So the bonus package when it was set would not have been as high in financial terms as it is now I'm assuming the share price increase has increased the bonus package? It's not an issue I'm bothered with personally and I'd say they deserve their rewards on this occasion. Too many companies reward their managements for mediocrity.
Perhaps the FCA/regulatory body should investigate individuals who don't fully disclose the nature of their holdings when publicly recommending/selling the share?

Sorry another typo: progressing

*tends

Surfie
Have the other shares released any info regarding moving their businesses forward to justify the share price rises?

Avct has said nothing new this morning and still looking for a partner. Imo. The market trends to correlate in the long term to business performance so they need to watch out it's not just ramptastic or is it business processing news?

I think the market needs convincing also about the long term strategy after covid 19 ( which may continue to bring sales for the company long after it has peaked).

On a long term basis I am positive. If the company accumulates the cash it is expected to or even at lower levels it gives it a lot of opportunities for acquisitions of companies or even new products.

I have been meaning to look up small profitable diagnostic companies and assess the P/E ratios before covid started and I am confident that these businesses would have been valued at higher than 10 times earnings. Due to time I have not been able to do that. I was aiming to look at European companies as ones on Nasdaq are always valued much higher.
So to justify the current valuation going forward after covid the company would need to achieve around £15 million pre tax.
On 15 X the market cap will increase even more.

The discussion so far has been on p/e based on covid earnings. The market will fully re-rate (there will also be a re-rate imo from exisitng levels when the market keeps seeing covid earnings and cash coming in) when there is a plan for the future that plan will be easier to execute for a company with no debts lots of cash and excellent and shrewd management. Which company can say that from a standing start in Feb/March turnover has multiplied to over 100 million and still increasing! The management need to be given credit for that. Other companies are still in discussions to sell their products so we are in June and they have not yet made a single sale! Yet other companies or one in particular that we all know about is still at the testing or protype stage if their product was so good it would have been ready by now.
Just my thoughts and not investment advice in any way. Please feel free to disagree etc. I think that with cash the company will be able to grow the business going forward and also sales of existing products should also increase.
In summary I am positive on the company's future after covid. Imo Dyor.

On the radio program, Soriot said that “if all goes well, we will have the results of the clinical trials in August/September,” as quoted by Reuters.

“We are manufacturing in parallel,” he added. “We will be ready to deliver from October if all goes well.”

Mention of delivering in October if all goes well these timescales may be pushed by delays nothing guaranteed.

https://www.fiercepharma.com/vaccines/astrazeneca-s-covid-19-to-protect-for-about-one-year-ceo-says