Member Info for Balanced66

Yes if he loses his billionaire status he would still most likely remain a millionaire. Still something most can't attain.

It also says "much of a $3.35 billion fortune" so not everything. If he left 500 million in the bank then he will still be super rich if the shares tank completely.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/chewy-founder-buys-apple-wells-fargo-stock-selling-company-billions-2020-6-1029285088

I suppose it's different if you're a billionaire!

Yes my approach as well. I try to spread risk by diversifying and aiming for no more than 10 per cent in any one share.

But that is just my personal approach. Although recently I was a bit to overweight (around 15 % in each share) in some of my other shares and cut my stakes in half and you guessed it they've increased by by 20-30 % in a few weeks! Always the way but at least I can sleep better at night knowing I have spread risk better.

Like the previous poster said I'm not giving investment advice as I am sure most of you are more experienced than me.

A link to an old article couldn't see an updated one.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/amp/news/210960

Also before P3 approval were granted and before Bracco came on board - they will be able to open bigger markets for the company. But 500 million pound sales with a huge margin leaves a lot of profit and a huge future company just based on that 500 million before any other sales in USA and worldwide are considered.

Not the first time we have been mentioned with the big players or let's say the giants in the industry!

"The report deeply explores the recent significant developments by the leading vendors and innovation profiles in the Global Veterinary Molecular Diagnostic Market including are IDEXX Laboratories, Inc., Novacyt Group, QIAGEN N.V., Thermo Fisher Scientific, Inc., VCA, Inc., Abaxis, Inc., Biomedica Medizinprodukte GmbH, Bioneer, HealthGene Corporation, and Neogen Corporation."

https://www.google.com/amp/s/uk.finance.yahoo.com/amphtml/news/global-veterinary-molecular-diagnostic-market-174300557.html

I don't recommend anyone to pay for report no need for it.

From the company pdf (a world leader):

"IVD Manufacturing and development services
Primerdesign is a world leader and an internationally recognised company for molecular diagnostic, PCR assay
development and the production of high quality MDx tests."

Novacyt as an OEM? (Some people probably didn't know this)

OEM opportunities
The entire Primerdesign product range is available on an OEM basis. We have a vast catalogue of tests suitable for all qPCR instrument platforms which are available under flexible licensing terms.
It would also be possible to have Primerdesign transfer and optimise any of our 500+ genesig assays to your platform
(either POC or lab-based platforms).
We manufacture products for a large number of MDx companies. Each customer’s specific requirements are
addressed. So whether you are an established multi-national diagnostic company or an ambitious start-up
For more information and to order, please
visit
www.primerdesign.co.uk
company we can deliver a high end
product to your business within weeks.
We can provide:
• Complete packaging and branding
solutions
• White label packaging solutions
• Items in bulk to incorporate into your
own packaging protocols
• Alternative kit formats to match your
requirements

The potential for growth in this company has always been there I now feel it has hugely improved prospects for achieving its ambitions.

NHS is preparing for second wave of coronavirus in winter
When asked by Andrew Marr if the NHS was preparing for a second spike in winter, the chief executive of NHS England said “yes”, it was perfectly possible.

Simon Stevens said this would be particularly difficult if it coincided with seasonal bouts of the flu, which has similar symptoms to coronavirus. Stevens said we needed unprecedented flu vaccinations to help the NHS cope.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.thenational.ae/uae/health/where-uae-residents-can-be-tested-overseas-for-covid-19-before-returning-to-the-emirates-1.1043875

A very useful article because it lists all the countries from which tests are required and where they can be carried out.

The earlier post showed more distributors in France - we are going to need them - look at the places in France where tests can be carried out for Emirates (NB the one-two gene issue not relevant for these tests as they are done to international standards).

In Pakistan (a lot of people work in the middle East) there are 3 main labs providing tests for Emirates: Chughtai (we know about them using our test courtesy of our resident gggg), Excel Labs say on their website that the tests are WHO approved and Islamic Diagnostic Centre (IDC). I didn't find much info on the accreditations for IDC tests but it is a given that countries like Pakistan would only be using WHO/FDA approved tests for Emirates. Emirates is the biggest middle Eastern airline and tests that are WHO/FDA etc approved would satisfy their testing requirements.

This is Emirates wait until other countries/airlines start making it mandatory.

Just look at the labs/locations in France where the tests can be done.

Come on our French cousins with all that is happening with testing and the Company's growth you have to lift yourselves out of your self imposed depression. Look at the wider picture Novacyt being an international company with customers in over a 100 countries and in different industries as well has insulated itself from adverse revenue impact from any one customer. It is coming up with solutions all the time and will overcome any initial disappointment you may feel.

The first rise up in share price of covid stocks was on the "promise/expectation". Shares dropped significantly as the market awaits further evidence of "delivery" of that promise.

The next rise will be based not on promise but on fundamentals. Many of the competition are still in the first stage while we have moved on to the second stage and will underpin our future share price increases with fundamentals of revenue, growth, partnerships etc. Imo.

I think some of the so called professionals/brokers didn't see this coming I remember in one of the foolish articles from the MF where they said that - most of their contacts missed the share price increase completely. Smacks of sour grapes. I do agree with MF in the general principle that people need to be wary of covid stocks when they had risen so much but were I expect tip sheets to help is to pick the winners from those companies. MF have an agenda and it's plain to see what it is - to write up these foolish articles and then link to their website to make you part with your cash for their tipsheet. I've seen the quality of their research and I'm not subscribing thank you.

My previous post may not have been clear so thought I would try to clarify. The company has previously stated that there is no over reliance on one customer for more than 10% of turnover (2018 accounts) this may have changed later. (I need to look into it if get the time but no real urgency to do so we know that the company is well managed and exercises good commercial sense in diversifying it's customer base). However, I didn't mention the 10% in my first reference to over reliance on one customer but I ended my post by mentioning 10 % . This may have created the impression that I didn't want any new order to be more than 10 % but that is not what I was saying I'd be happy with as big as possible!

Hopefully not made matters worse with this explanation and the below from my previous post now makes sense without confusion:
"Mind you we still want the big chunk from the government contracts of £5 billion by that time we will hopefully be bigger so it is still less than 10%!"

One other thing, while I'm here I thought needed highlighting which I'm sure others have also picked up on is the common "oh this share was 10 pence and look it has risen so much so therefore it is overvalued ...." That isn't exactly correct if you look at the share price history since the company listed.

Yes it did go to 10p or less BUT that low price range lasted for several months only; at all other times the share price has been higher and for a long time it averaged around 60p.

So it's unfair to pick the lowest point in the share price chart to base valuations from imo. If you think that the normal share price average range was say 40-50p before covid ( I've not used a calculator for this just an educated guess looking at the share price chart) then although still a huge rise it appears very reasonable in the context of the company's new found economic and commercial position.

The derampers were using that against us a few weeks ago saying it's risen several thousand per cent. So just have that in your head this share was averaging a price a lot higher than the low point which only lasted for a few months so why should I use that as my reference point.

It doesn't matter in some instances what the previous high or low was as the the stock market doesn't owe anyone anything ( or such similar saying!).

In our case imo the share price risesn from the 10p level are justified as the company has struck gold and the old valuations no longer apply. IMO dyor.

Just some thoughts.

Ran out of space - no dependence on any one customer they have applied that approach to covid sales as well - it is actually a strength and the derampers were twisting it to say our next biggest order was from Zimbabwe. One antibody company has been waiting for the government decision on whether it will take its product or not if that was NCYT it would already have been selling to the world.

Mind you we still want the big chunk from the government contracts of £5 billion by that time we will hopefully be bigger so it is still less than 10%!

Easy to use

"Primerdesign's extensive catalogue of over 550 genesig® Real-Time PCR kits can be run on the q32 instrument, including human, food pathogens and food speciation testing. As all genesig® kits have an identical running protocol, the q16 and q32 instruments are easy to use for customers of all expertise and experience levels and provide results that can be easily compared across the instruments and across different sites or collaborating groups."

South African Distributor

The South African Distributor (has reach in all areas of country and also sub Saharan Africa):

"Celtic Molecular Diagnostics, is a dynamic South African based company that was established in 2003 and specializes in the distribution of high quality, innovative and affordable molecular products to researchers and diagnostic laboratories. With over 25 suppliers of reliable and state-of-the-art products, our vision is to become the leading supplier of molecular biology reagents and instrumentation in Southern Africa. Celtic Molecular Diagnostics is based in Cape Town, but have product specialists serving all the provinces in South Africa including our regional clients from Sub Saharan Africa.

Our commitment is to serve the molecular science community with unparalleled service by engaging our customers with honesty, integrity and sincerity. Our hallmark to bring in competent, state-of-the-art technology has made us evolve into one of the major suppliers of molecular reagents, kits and equipment in South Africa. Our passion to make a difference in the scientific and diagnostic communities drives us to go beyond just selling product, but to create long-lasting relationships with both our clients and distributors."

This bodes well for sales there.

The LinkedIn profile states up to 50 staff as the website gives the impression there are 3. They seem to stock products from quality and specialist companies including Abcam.

Growth

From the 2018 results:

"Acquisitive Growth

The Company has always been clear that significant opportunities exist in the diagnostics market to acquire new high growth products and accelerate financial performance with attractive and accretive M&A. The Company has been able to demonstrate this during the past five years through the acquisitions of Lab21, Primerdesign and Omega ID as it has significantly increased sales from €1.2m to €13.7m and turned losses into EBITDA profitability. With attractive buying multiples and the Group's demonstrated ability to integrate assets successfully, acquisitions are expected to continue be significantly accretive to sales growth, gross margins and earnings."

Bodes well for future growth of the company. At the moment organic growth seems assured to propel it forward for the future so no need for acquisitions IMO but it may acquire "new high growth products" as previously advised.

Reliance on major customers (2018 accounts)

"The Group is not dependent on any one customer..

Yes and some of the larger pharmaceutical companies are weak or have very specialised diagnostic departments so a takeover will grow their diagnostic capability and they can scale up/ set up big operations around the world quickly.

Morning all. Great work Bramley as always.

Not sure if you mentioned the Government Framework Agreements. There is the old one which Microgen Bioproducts (a Novocyt company) is a part of and it has been extended for one more year until July 2021. The Government notice said something like subject to confirmation which I think just means telling the companies on the Framework they have been selected to remain. The sums involved have been increased by several hundred millions for all the companies on the Framework! So more increased sums of money for the the company going forward.

This extension seems to be in addition to the covid tests contract that the company agreed to supply for 6 months subject to extension.

There is also the new £5 billion Government Framework Agreement - Novocyt can tender for this and should be selected as it is now one of the biggest diagnostic companies in Europe and it's group company has been on the old framework and it has been closely working with the NHS and Government Astrazenica etc. If selected (very likely in my view) it will get a share of the 5 billion which has the option to extend for another 2 years!

The company will provide further news releases for these new framework agreements I am sure.

Perhaps France will do something similar shortly in addition to the voucher scheme for tests?

The market might soon be coming around to the view that the company's earnings will not tail off soon and are very likely to increase for several years yet? We know that covid will remain for some time now and there is likely to be a greater focus on infectious diseases benefitting companies in those fields. What will the share price be then when the market has woken up? Certainly not at these depressed levels!

https://www.biospace.com/article/thermo-fisher-to-acquire-qiagen-for-11-5-billion/

Some background information.

*strong

No one or we don't know yet but there is a demand it seems for string covid plays. If anyone it may be Astrazenica as we work closely with them. Nothing confirmed just talk yet by people. But good cause to.

"The veterinary range is currently the
fastest growing part of the genesig
portfolio. qPCR based veterinary
kits attract a lot of attention and this
product range addresses some truly
unique challenges in the field"

From a 2019 pdf I found online there looked to be around 300 different tests for animal pathogens that's in addition to all the other tests the company has.

Obviously biggest growth area now is covid but I think in future there will be a greater shift to animal testing as more threats emerge.

We are not just covid saw some genome tests on the pdf as well.

Yes agree but sometimes (nearly always) a bigger parent will open more doors for you and will pay for those future earnings. We are already doing those kind of sales and/or building up to that and that may be enough for a suitor.

Not based on Qiagen numbers which I think gggg previously highlighted is on something like 9-10 X turnover.

3.60 wouldn't be offered.

Thanks gggg - sure I thanked you but not there. Great info. Mobile testing is happening already.

Great find thanks.

For those that don't use Twitter very much (me included) here is a write up from TAC Healthcare exciting times for the company. The post from mavs should also highlight how undervalued we are as the shareholder discontent at Qiagen is based on increasing covid sales and we are also doing a lot more of that if people haven't noticed!

Independent review (notice "latest technology" and "leading edge solutions"):

"TAC invests in latest technology to provide an even faster COVID-19 testing service to our customers.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, technologies are playing a crucial role in keeping our industry functional in a time of lockdowns, quarantines and social distancing.

We have invested in two of the latest testing solutions to ensure our clients and their operation have the most effective method of testing minimising the time between testing of workers and results being available.

The first solution comprises of Point of Care devices which perform a rapid molecular diagnostic test which is used for the qualitative detection of COVID-19 in 20 minutes.

Our second solution is a rapid PCR test, which handles up to 32 samples at a time, delivering results in just over an hour. This solution utilises the same RNA polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test but requires minimal handling and is able to work outside of a traditional laboratory environment.

TAC is committed to continue investing in technology solutions that provides our clients with leading edge solutions."