Member Info for Balanced66

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/working-from-home-should-continue-says-chief-scientist-sir-patrick-vallance-lp7kzr776

Agree with Scoutt the way the US is carrying on lately with wanting covid vaccines and drugs for itself would not be surprised by them wanting to keep as much of Spin for themselves.

For a small market cap don't know where all these sell keep coming from?

No doubt some impatient and gone to rainbow chase?

Yeah I'm working as well and will have a look later.
One for Wbernard to consider I think as he has shown himself to be more than capable to respond to Doc even I've had a go and I've no scientific background!

Just my initial thoughts for others to develop and consider.

I detect bias from Doc. Now if he is a scientist/ doc with an interest in pandemic medicine as he states he has he would be undertaking more detailed objective research.

1. For example it doesn't look like he has been to that company's website to see full details, scientists would not make a determination based on another posters assertions regarding sensitivity and specificity in a message.

2. Doc is again contradicting himself it seems as Nova was a market leader a couple of days ago with the best test and now it's not because a rapid test (rapid tests are known to have less sensitivity and/or specificity) is better but as I say he has as a scientist based this on one posters figures - Doc you said you were with WHO is that how they do things over there? These alleged 75% for PCR have been in the media for weeks yet doc has been asserting Nova is market leader best etc.

3. I think what doc is referring to is what has been in the media about how samples are taken - but that is a training issue if doc looks at Nova's website they do repeatedly put up their 100% figures. There has been nothing at all pointing the finger at Nova as far as I can see - Doc has pointed the finger at Nova without scientific basis/facts yet he claims to be from that community that's not how they do things.

4. The 75% media assertion is about PCR tests well then that would catch Ygen as well (again I've nothing against Ygen and in fact think it's a great company). Yet doc in his impartial scientific analysis said their test was better again it seems without delving deep into what their tech is - doc seemed to think they were better because of their tech example the pregnancy test but I pointed out that was Illumina patent.

5. Doc is not looking at like for like - "declared" for the rapid test company but real life for NCYT (again I say that the media have not pointed the finger at Nova) to arrive at an alleged 75%. Like for like based on declared would be 100% for Nova v 84% for the other company. As a scientist he should know that and should be impartial.

It seems the stats are being represented in a way to suit his short.

Now I planned to just put some quick thoughts down and that took longer than I intended if any errors in my reasoning I'm sure others will correct.

Is the test 15 minute test high throughput? Looks like it only handles one sample at a time with a 15 minute gap in between will that really be any quicker? The blurb suggests it's not designed for busy sites. The benefit would have been saliva but it only shows a nasal swab.

"This will be a game-changer for frontline health care workers and their patients to be able to access a quick diagnostic test for COVID-19, offering results in real-time at convenient locations like retail pharmacies, urgent care centers and doctors' offices," said Dave Hickey, president of Integrated Diagnostic Solutions for BD. "Such tests will also help communities be more informed and better prepared to help prevent new spikes and additional waves of COVID-19 by enabling public health workers to quickly identify infectious individuals and trace their contacts."

It's a Pakistani airline

https://www.airblue.com/corp/about

Looks like you're still upset with me because of all the Buffet quotes?

Fyi...I got interrupted and returned to typing and there was an additional post in the meantime posting the 3 test suppliers. A little courtesy for fellow investors wouldn't go amiss.

I've contacted Chughtai Labs and they have confirmed also what gggg21 has said but additionally:

They are exclusive diagnostic lab (trusted by the airlines) for the following airlines using Covid-19 PCR Qualitative test for Emirates, Fly Dubai, Etihad, Air Arabia and Air Blue passengers.

The testing has now been confirmed.

Tests used are PCR ( Polymerase Chain Reaction ) and the kits are from

1- Primer Design ( UK )
2- Anatolia Genetech ( Turkey )
3- Qiagen ( USA , Netherlands )

https://www.theguardian.com/science/2020/jul/14/baby-boy-infected-with-coronavirus-in-womb

https://www.google.com/amp/s/uk.mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUKKCN24F1I9

I hope there is an effective safe vaccine all of us as saving lives comes before making money.

But if there is a delay in a vaccine then I'm thinking from this story if testing might become a requirement for expectant mums in future?

With covid we don't know which way things are going or how bad they are going to get.

Obelix
Yes any company interested would want to offer now rather than later - it's not just sales but the reputation and branding of the company should have got better by then so more money to pay to buy imo.

With Qiagen it was really their other business that the acquiring company is interested in and covid testing is part of that - there was some rumoured shareholder disquiet about it being sold on the cheap as post covid the world had changed which suggests that diagnostic companies valuations may need to be revised upwards.

As a comparison to Qiagen we don't have the same pre covid turnover as them so wouldn't be valued as high as them imo. But we may have taken a bigger chunk or lead from them as regards covid testing relatively speaking ( the turnover figures are not the same) so it shows our worth to a competitor we have been first of the blocks for the last few pandemic scares.

Does our pre covid business have value to a purchaser? We are in what may be the fastest growing field in diagnostics going forward - that of infectious disease. Imo any takeover will be at lower levels than those suggested by fellow investors here, doesn't mean I'm right and doesn't mean a takeover will happen.

What may increase any takeover price is the longer the company can keep bringing in the covid income it will put it in a better bargaining position with any suitor imo.

Catwith9lives

It's hard to predict a share price. Looks undervalued to me. Agreements with leading cell therapy companies in cutting edge technology etc.

I aim to have a core holding for the long term. It has stakes in the pipeline of those cell therapy companies but it is valued at much less than those companies which is odd. Anyway valuations can take some time to catch up and the trend is up.

"To all holders, this is the best test and market leader but so were Polaroid, Olivetti, IBM and Kodak."

Bit of a contradiction I say Doc from your weak "no NCYT has no moat" argument.

If it's the best test and market leader according to you then it does have a moat - you were denying this the other day. Make up your mind please.

Imo moat arguments do not come into it it's just about profitability and growing the business for the future.

Those examples you gave Polaroid etc they were market leaders or big companies for a long time so investors would have done very well out of them at the time. Nothing lasts for ever but most experienced commentators are talking about how Nova may reinvest its income to grow through acquisitions etc. The analysis you give is very simple and a lot of people on here seem to be fans of that. But can you give us your thoughts of why you think the business will not grow if it can maximize its earnings for the next 12 months and good income beyond that as well (after all by your own analysis and postings here covid will have a second wave and a third and so on) beyond a simple moat/no moat argument which you seem to keep changing that's why I said read the Investopedia article.

Not sold a share Bench and your profile on LSE is from 2014 and you probably have been investing for longer than that as well! You're not a newby and I reckon you clearly know what you are doing and have on the whole done very well from this share.

Rampant rampers should be permanently banned from LSE. Yes people can have their own personal optimistic view or pessimistic view and that's not a crime but to encourage others to part with their own money for selfish gains is not a desirable trait to say the least.

I've noticed these boards have a few people with ulterior motives and not everyone is what they appear to be. Think there are some skilled traders here who made money on the way up and are now making money on the way down. Someone sitting on big alleged losses would be worried sick and not blissfully in a carefree manner - " oh I'm down and 50p is the next target" or words to that effect. Just a suspicion so you can't point the finger at anyone but people need to be wary of these boards they should come with a health warning - that would be my recommendation to LSE to put a notice up on each board that the views of posters are their own and no reliance should be made on them.

Hope you guys get your money back or most of it at least. I was invested here a while ago but no longer.

Isn't Hemo exploratory be some time before they have something to progress to trials?

It's about 7% of my pf - in ISA and Sipp.

It's certainly showing promise and it's in the right area of work at the moment. My average is around 3.60 ish. I timed GDR well but not this one but you never get the bottom or top - unless you're lucky. Although there is an investor who roams these boards and he always seems to be in the top riser(s) of the day and always seems to get the bottom and sell at the top! Why people resort to such nonsense is beyond me. They do trip up eventually and their stories unravel.

Still think the company has a chance of turning it's fortunes around and reinventing itself from the covid growth. If it can come up with a viable plan then long term it should get a re-rate but those are just my own thoughts and there are no guarantees in this game. It it can extend its earnings from covid well into 2021 then I think it has a better chance of future growth. All imo and every one to their own trades and view.

My first foray in to stocks was during the internet boom when you just bought anything remotely linked to the internet and you did well. Even in those days I tried to look at fundamentals and bought heavily into Imagination Technologies which were making the graphics chip for the Sega Dreamcast. I did very well and made a lot of money enough to buy a small house. I left the market after dabbling for about a year and returned many years later and my approach of putting nearly all my eggs in one basket didn't work then I bought Meldex International the then darling with pi's and lost all my money when they went bust. I only returned back this March and I'm trying to do it the proper way now mostly by diversifying etc hence why you might be getting more Buffet quotes as one fellow investor commented lol! I'm also showing my son how to invest he's much younger and so he should learn the proper way - it should be a lifetime venture for youngsters and I don't want him to pick up bad habits thigh most of his stocks are on aim but we are trying to keep away from the more speculative ones that punters love.
I'm up overall so far but in these markets that can change quickly.
Think most people have their horror stories with shares - it's all part of the learning process to get better.

I wouldn't blame mom's so much most of it is because of our own greed and trying to get rich quickly.

There's a good write up in Sockopedia's daily Small Cap Value Report for those that subscribe to it. It's more in the way of this looks really undervalued am I missing something and the writer Jack Brumby discusses many of the similar arguments made here about sales being near market cap, the company reinvesting into other ventures to grow the business etc.

He says he will take a closer look. Stocko give a 14 day trial for those who are interested in reading it. Just another view really for people to consider in deciding what they want to do share wise.

The saliva adaptation looks very interesting. Is it Harts who commented on this last week or so? Be interested to get his view on developments.

I wonder if it's the mother really using the account or the son as it's all very childish.