RE: Calculations14 May 2021 23:24
Great post Texlax,, a few good points in there, very good points!
Personally I reckon we will see MRE of 6-10m oz. I think some are getting carried away - drilling has been upped considerably but as confident as GGP and NCM are they can only report on actuals.
As for the SP... — I believe there are a couple of Mutuals who have for some time needed to decrease their holding before reporting date, (due to their own funds regulations) and as we all know, they are not going to do it in the open market for obvious reasons.
I also believe they have not approached brokers to break the sales up over time with multiple exchanges so as to minimize the market impact. I think the brokers have said let's cut to the chase, lets get the deal done, and bought all the shares. These brokers are big and they can afford to sell them off later. Obviously it's too risky to pay the average SP price of the day as they need to sell the shares themselves over an extended period, and events beyond their control could cause the price to fall. The brokers have offered to buy the shares from the Mutuals at a per-share price tied to a fraction under the VWAP over some future period. All the brokers need to do now is sell those shares over the next few months in a way that exactly matches the VWAP, If they can beat the VWAP, all the better. Problem is, I believe we have brokers representing institutions wanting to buy considerable amounts, and they are using the exact opposite tactic... thus, the SP will be relatively rigid until the buying brokers convince their institutional buyers to step back so to speak and up their limit. When that happens and other institutions feel like they will miss the train, boat, plane.... the SP will rocket and I mean rocket. In 12 months time I guess, yes guess, 50 - 60p. 12 months after that (if we are not subject to buyout) £1.20 - £1.30 if not more (like to be conservative) I'm currently 23% down but not in the slightest bit bothered.
If I bought a Sovereign ten years ago as an investment for the future, would I be continually checking it's value... no, it's a safe long term investment!
Apologies for the waffle, just sipping some McCracken (the cheaper one)
GLA