focusIR May 2024 Investor Webinar: Blue Whale, Kavango, Taseko Mines & CQS Natural Resources. Catch up with the webinar here.
Sekforde,
Absolutely agree, the maintaining current production was for me a big one. Also although the few hundred grand is a red herring its the regulatory costs and compliance that I think is the real kicker with keeping the Swedish listing. Does anyone know what the Swedish tax position is on holding over seas stock, I think this could be a problem for many Swedish retail holders. ( Are Swedish retail holders circa 3.3% ? )
I also agree at 13% and the EPL any M&A targets don't look wise to me even if we can benefit from accelerated tax loss usage.
Once we get under 0.5x net debt to EBITDA I wonder if we could refinance at a better rate ? Looks like Harbour for instance definitely could !
Sekforde,
Do we know if Linda has sold all her shares yet ? If she has she might be more inclined to make an acquisition. Of course it doesn't have to be Harbour, this low market cap lowest debt ( for some time ) and $91 Brent has got to make us a very attractive take over target. Could Amjads 12% be enough to fend one off ?
Totally agree with Leases and Decom its just future Op Ex, if you go bust it can't be met anyway.
Stevo12,
Just some thoughts...
Harbour would not be buying $2.3Billion of tax losses from the majors.
they are now debt free with $1.6 Billion available.
Harbour would increase their crude production by circa 46% in one fell swoop can be increased to well over 50%
Most of their revenue is from crude $1115m vs $759 for gas on a roughly 50/50 split
They are valued at £1.9Billion so circa £1115m on crude if valued on production alone a 46% increase would add circa £513m to valuation. Meaning take over would probably add value to Harbour.
Increasing crude production by 46% would be massive for them
Our debt would be refinanced by Harbour no doubt at a lower rate.
Take over could be part cash part shares
Why are Taconic shorting Harbour with a very large single position, while Oil price is rising and their debt has recently been paid off ?
Mr Long,
The only upside surprise I can see in the next results would be buy back announcement and some interesting new partnerships which are not material ( at the moment ) or they would need to be RNS'd
I don't expect too much movement in shareprice on the 18th
Pearls,
They have gone from £55m revenue to £1069m in 5 years. In my view the Golden share is inconsequential to todays shareprice unless you are pinning your hopes on a takeover. Who said SMS is in poor health ? He is still working hard !
Jcj07,
I think that is exactly NigeCo's point. It is possible for market participants to inflict so much pain that shareholders will gladly accept a silly offer. Well thats not happening here with SMS's Golden Shares.
Jpl26,
I agree with your sentiment but don't believe there are no institutional buyers. In July we had these Institutional buys
Miller Value Funds 6,000,000— Jul 31, 2023
Third Avenue Management LLC 1,922,937— Jul 31, 2023
Deka Investment GmbH 1,735,000— Jul 31, 2023
Baron Capital Management Inc 1,101,982— Jul 31, 2023
BAMCO Inc 1,093,228— Jul 31, 2023
Debeka Asset Management GmbH 0.15 845,400 –Jul 31, 2023
Franklin Templeton International Services S.à r.l. 713,057— Jul 31, 2023
State Street Global Advisors 423,137— Jul 31, 2023
1832 Asset Management L.P 350,350 Jul 31, 2023
Fubon Securities Inv Trust Co Ltd 305,976 Jul 31, 2023
BlackRock Investment Management (UK) Ltd. 219,858— Jul 31, 2023