Member Info for Auson

Keir Starmer has said he is “doubling down” on the future of oil and gas, in the biggest hint yet that he is poised to give consent to the controversial Rosebank oilfield.

'When asked by The Scotsman about the future of the Rosebank oilfield off the coast of Shetland, Sir Keir said: “A decision is still to be taken as a result of the court case, but as I have said, oil and gas will be part of the mix for many, many years and I want to double down on that.

“It will be part of the mix alongside the fantastic opportunity of renewables, I think we can do both.”

This comes after both UK Energy Secretary Ed Miliband and UK Energy Minister Michael Shanks refused to be drawn on the future of the oilfield, but pointed out that the owners, Norwegian state oil company Equinor, is seeking consent rather than an exploration licence.

Me12345,

Mostly JP Morgan who have increased aggressively from 0.55% 16th September to 1.33% 17th Oct, looks like DE Shaw have joined in with 0.5% on 14th Oct.

GoCPI,

Your analysis is spot on there, I know they got rid of a lot of staff in Amsterdam late last year, and they use the team in Poland and Buenos Aries on global work a lot !

I also know quite a few ad execs, designers, creatives all looking for work right now.

GoCPI,

Good points, and I reckon the US valuation must be at least 20 to 30 % higher than Aug 2024.

London exchange valuation possibly 10 % higher, maybe even less !

The New York Stock Exchange’s market capitalisation was $25 trillion in August 2024 – this is over 20% of the total world stock market value.

The market capitalisation of the London Stock Exchange was $3.4tn in August 2024

Recent Federal Reserve data shows 45% of all U.S. households had financial assets invested in stocks in the second quarter of 2025.

About 162 million Americans, or 62% of U.S. adults, own stock.

The top 1% holds 50% of stocks, worth $23 trillion.

The bottom 50% of U.S. adults hold only 1% of stocks, worth $490 billion.

GOV.UK says 'it is known that stocks and shares are a popular investment type, chosen by 23.5% of UK investors'

people are investing an average of about £363.71 per month into Stocks and Shares ISAs, a form of stock market investment.

From Publicis earnings call.

'Since the emergence of Gen AI three years ago, a lot has been said about its impact on our industry. When it comes to Publicis, let's be clear: today we are winning thanks to AI. This is visible in our industry outperformance in Q3 and in our guidance upgrade. It is mainly due to our €12 billion investment in data, technology, and AI over the last decade. We acquired Epsilon, but also Retargetly and Lotame, to lead in identity resolution, which is absolutely necessary to truly deliver impact with AI. Today, we are enabling our clients to directly engage with 91% of adults connected to the Internet globally.'

'hey are currently facing a marketing landscape that is more fragmented and complex than ever, where tech giants are spending billions on new AI technologies and infrastructure, multiplying the number of platforms and channels and making it harder to reach and engage with audiences. As a result, none of our top clients allocate more than 4% of their total marketing spend to a single platform. In fact, across our top 20 clients, the average spend on their largest platform is just 2%. In this context, our role as a trusted neutral partner able to deliver consistent cross-platform messages, optimize their budget, and maximize return on investment with full transparency has never been more important.'

'It allows us to carve out a wide space for ourselves by serving as the connective tissue for our clients, technology, data, and agents, creating the AI-powered marketing solution that they really need to win in the future. AI is also a way for us to continue to increase our addressable market. By using AI to integrate new capabilities into our data and tech backbone, we are developing new sources of growth. A clear example is our influencer business, which is materially accretive to our growth. By using AI to connect Epsilon data with Captivate technology and influential creative network, we have built the world's largest and most powerful influencer media platform, enabling our clients to deliver the same reach that they can get at the Super Bowl for only a fraction of the cost.'

Tariffs are the key here. Wood Mac's analysis is that the Trump tariffs if upheld could reduce oil demand by 1m bpd thus reducing Brent price by $7 p/b for 2026 from average $71 to average £64.

https://www.woodmac.com/blogs/the-edge/tariffs-implications-for-oil-and-gas/

Dividend withholding tax: A standard U.S. withholding tax of \(30\%\) applies to dividends from U.S. securities. You can reduce this to \(15\%\) by completing a W-8BEN form, which is a tax treaty form required by U.S. tax law.  Capital Gains Tax (CGT): You will have to pay U.S. tax on capital gains from LSE investments, even if you are a U.K. resident. Gains are taxed at the standard U.S. rates, which can be significantly higher than U.K. rates.  Foreign income and gains: You must report any foreign income and capital gains to the IRS, which can result in a U.S. tax liability.  Reporting requirements: As a U.S. citizen, you have an obligation to report foreign accounts and holdings to the IRS. This includes filing a Foreign Bank Account Report (FBAR) for any foreign bank accounts with a balance exceeding \(\$10,000\) during the year. 

Enquest

•

91%

have long positions

•

9%

have short positions

0-50IG clients with open positions in this market

No1plasterer,

If things go right here for a change we could well see £2 again, but before that £1 needs to be regained.

Romaron,

I thought he sounded much more positive in the Q and A saying that the new agreed framework was 'workable' and 'positive'

No1plasterer,

Thats ok wildtiger sold all at 20.6p

She has now just said about the Billions in debt interest, on debts racked up by the Torries !

' no longer will we take no notice of where things are made, if we can make them ourselves, blah blah, Scottish built frigates order for Denmark, £1.5B loan for Jaguar Land Rover'

You could't make it up cough North Sea cough oil and gas industry cough support services cough cough Aberdeen.

Seriously is she having a Giraffe ?

Jjones001,

Probably more buying than selling going on is my bet.

Renndava,

It was towards the end of the Q & A

Anyone else think we should take the government to court, I can't see how they could defend the 'Windfall on record profits from rising energy prices'

Further more if the 'windfall tax' results in a company reporting over a hundred million loss, I can't see they could possibly justify a tax on 'record profit'

Is the oil industry terrified they would just nationalize the continental shelf ?

Rockhopper were able to take on Republic of Italy n a no win no fee international arbitration case which they won ( €247 million) .. then had annulled award against Italy due to a tribunal arbitrator's undisclosed criminal prosecution. They still managed to insure the award and receive a £31 million payout.

Knowhow77

£1.50 can't be too far off SMS's average, ditto some of the larger US funds.

1msn,

What makes you draw that conclusion ?

Surely that wouldn't be too good for SMS / us or the other large director shareholders.

Watched an interesting Harry's Garage on bio-fuel which he is trialing. 80 sustainable 20% fossil. Its £4.50 a liter. Apparently Formula 1 have committed to using sustainable fuel from 2026. The 100% sustainable race fuel currently has a rumored price of £500 a liter...yes thats five hundred pounds a liter.

Sustainble fuel https://sustain-fuels.com/fuels/sustain-classic-super-80/

Harry's Garage episode called

Car makers will never sell enough EVs to meet Government regs. Here’s what needs to change.