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Perfect summation well done.

Exactly how I see it. (Not sure I’ve considered morale) I would guess that’s the first casualty?

Way too weird behaviour.

Chilling.

Czql5v - kind of same here, I look towards £3.50. Which I think is possible.

Although with income reducing, it’s something to keep an eye on, it’s a race to reduce costs in time before sell offs and revenue loss go too far.

I’m optimistic short to medium term, but very pessimistic long term, unless BT does something differently. Over time one cut at a time, revenue loss and selling failing assets might mean the next high is the last one, it won’t go higher from there, probably slowly decline.

It’s one of the reasons I would like to see bold moves to defend their position.

PRK - I’m so sorry to see you being jumped all over by the usual dullards on this board.

It’s quite clear to me you have described their religion perfectly. BT follows this strategy endlessly and most on here push it at every opportunity as the best possible option, that being cut costs, all while revenue is decreasing.

As for buying at £1.30. Fleccy would be the first to announce the benefits of topping up at £1.30…..

Crazy world we live in & they like to call lil Rod & others dumb.

IP3LY - sure I kind of agree, the strategy of having a target which could be exceeded does feel like some new CEO could play for.

So far she has proved to be very canny and not afraid to play the market.

Will have to wait and see.

BTs own target is £3bln by 2030.

You’re right again lil rod, I shouldn’t get drawn in to Fleccy’s bragging. I need to be better than that.

Yes, you are repeating the strategy BT has formally described as their plan & their findings these are areas where fibre isn’t available from Openreach.

Initially this sounds like quite good news, but what I think it means is these potential connections are lost to BT based on the principle these areas historically have a higher take up once Openreach have fibre available.

So logically these addresses already signed up to altnets are not going to be jumping to openreach, which changes the financial model in a big way…….

I like to hear what BT has to say, of course but this is only one part of a dataset & one side of a bigger story.

You prefer to scoff, I prefer to have a little think about what these other analysts are saying & IMO what is being described here is an issue, I think it might be overblown, but I can see how quickly that could change.

I’m not negative about BT shares. My personal fair valuation is somewhere in region of £3.50 within next 3 years give or take.

But understanding the dynamics of revenue (vanity) profit (necessity) & cash (reality) indicates a longer view & helps assess whether competition or other outside forces will impact this

In my view these losses need to be watched & need to be corrected. If for instance next year saw similar & I thought the year after could go I would divest from BT.

Snoopz -

If you take out building the fibre network revenue

BT openreaches revenue has been driven by connecting more and more Service Provider (wholesale) services……..

Ie more and more broadband services using it. These loses show circa 1m less of these, which means assuming the retail customer still exists, have moved to other networks, ie not connected through openreach.

So on balance of probabilities it’s means two things

a) a loss of revenue into Openreach & and increase somewhere else

b) Openreach is not attracting as many “new” broadband connections as we would like, so these too are going somewhere else.

You can scoff all you like, but them are the numbers and some analysis are putting weight to this.

It also means, if BT are not going to do anything different, one of their choices might be to reduce prices further, which impact revenue.

At some point reducing revenue & reducing costs is a strategy which could lead to just less & could make paying their bills harder.

Whereas a business increasing revenue, means dept is cheaper, more money for dividends & innovation etc etc etc.

Do I need to say declining revenue eventually means?

It is one of the reasons I don’t like idea of loosing global, it makes loss now (which should be sorted) selling it IMO diminishes BT too far.

Snoopz - perhaps this is where you realise why people use the term “retail” & “wholesale”

You have completely missed the point because of your difficulty with this

Those numbers are broadband customers (not retail) leaving the openreach network…..

Might make more sense why it’s a risk now.

Based purely on BB losses this year alone, makes circa £210,000,000 reduction from income……

I mean, it’s not difficult work out the risks of this strategy is it?

Could next year make it £420,000,000 hole in Openreach revenue?

What about the year after that?

You guys don’t like it, but this is the point lil Rod keeps making. It’s not a prediction, it’s a risk and it is a perfectly reasonable question to ask and understand what the plan is, other than spend more money quicker building out a network (which may or may not make difference?).

Bearing in mind building out the network quicker was the reason BT results said the losses would reduce 1/4 on 1/4 but that doesn’t seem to be what has happened.

I too have a large investment in BT stock. I inherited at first and then matched that with my own money. Unlike you I don’t feel the need to Bragg of its detail. Perhaps you will impress someone on this site, or maybe they will realise you could write any number & no one would know for sure.

So I’ll stick to a large holding and leave it at that.

Your thoughts on whether altnets are a threat to Virgin Media O2 rather than BT very much depends on next steps competition makes, I won’t bore you repeating the version I think probable & the reasoning behind why I think it.

Suffice to say

a) Virgin Media’s network has not lost circa 1m broadband connections in the last year

b) you might be right long term, unless of course Virgin Media doesn’t become the driving force behind altnet consolidation

Maybe they will out of necessity ?

As for BT because I have a sizeable investment I like to try and track reality, with an eye on risk. I already know what BT’s plan is, it is exactly as you describe & this makes me a little nervous for many reasons.

I would prefer to see a more agile and aggressive approach to making money & growth, rather than the current plan which, in part does involve cost cutting, diminishing by revenue & in some ways hoping the competition does outperform itself in terms of growth but also in terms of disruption

It’s why I genuinely like the idea lil Rod has, sell / lease a piece of openreach along with network to its major competitors so they have little interest going elsewhere.

Obviously I’m not emotional.

& that’s not a question, it’s a passive aggressive accusation, as you always do, should anyone dare provide evidence to counter balance your narrative with a tickle of reality.

No one on this board should be underestimating the headwinds and issues BT needs to overcome, many of which are outside of its control.

I don’t think you are interested in a balanced view.

Are you being pathetic again Fleccy?

Have I reported anything inaccurately ?

Openreach reported 208,000 losses in 3rd quarter stating they expected decline to slow down, then reported 243,000 losses in fourth quarter.

Don’t forget these are other service providers “retail” customers not BT retail.

It shows losses are accelerating & either service providers are preferring other networks as Sky has said it will do where city fibre is available or these service providers are loosing retail customers to altnets directly.

I suppose this reporting could include BT retail because at this stage BT is another service provider ? But BT report overall small increase in BB customers

Although these analysts are wrong about the share price, thus far, what they are saying is worrying.

Originally BT predicted 400,000 broadband loses to other networks, citing these leave to access fibre speeds where they do

Not offer it.

This number is now 1.4 million estimated loses to other networks.

Geordie I feel your pain

BT has two dividend payments one usually paid in February one in September. February payment less than August

Dividend payments are declared / confirmed by the board each year.

To pay dividends the company needs a period to work it all out.

This means there is a date called the “record” date. On this date any shares you own will be included in your dividend payments. This date is usually first day of ex dividend period (I think)

Then there is an ex dividend periods, usually several weeks where company organises and checks dividend payments etc to brokers.

Finally a payment date where you as a share owner receives the dividend payment

It’s the record date that’s key to getting dividend payments, you must have shares registered to you on that date to get them

I’m sure someone can do a better description, but that should pretty much cover it.

Depending where your shares are and how many you have you may need to pay tax on dividend payments. If they ate held in an ISA the dividend payment is tax free !!!

Sustainable reliable network, what’s not to like?

Sometimes thinking about cleaning up your operation for environmental reasons can trigger all kinds of efficiency discoveries. Sometimes parts of business can continuously improve given a trigger

Lil Rod. I think my point is

If BT has a strategy to cut costs until profit soars why can that not be equally applied to BT and BT global?

Is it a winning strategy ? I think Global shows competitors don’t just sit and watch & somehow global hasn’t managed to adapt quick enough for market conditions

It’s hard to reason why the BT brand can’t make serious money globally