Member Info for Aus3009

Amen

Snooze - is starlink an alternative network openreach?

Because that is the context of my post.

Why are you fixated about the narrow definition of an “altnet” when the discussion is about services not using openreach.

It’s like you are drowning & arguing about how deep the water is?

I would invite you to re-read the post & its context & to realise this isn’t a BT or industry board it’s for share holders

Snoopz - to AI “what does altnet stand for “

Perhaps you might like to reread my post & this time consider context. Context being “not using openreach “. As in an alternative network. As in number of connections “leaving “ as in “not connected to openreach”

As opposed to an Ofcom brochure.

Altnet" stands for Alternative Network Provider. These are newer broadband providers in the UK that build and operate their own networks, offering an alternative to the larger, more established providers that typically rely on Openreach's infrastructure, according to Airband. They are also sometimes referred to as "alt-nets".

I mean, it’s not difficult is it? I don’t mind if you want to have narrow view of these words, but for the purpose of my post, I am very obviously talking about openreach losses to another (alternative) network.

Because you continue to argue with me, I have assume you think connections moving to starlink don’t by some magic impact openreach numbers.

Or are you arguing about the semantics of what alternative network means? Just asking for a friend.

Mararab - what about virginity media then?

What about city fibre & any number of alternative networks available which don’t use openreach for retail connection.

Mararab - you have to be one of lil rods accounts?

The clue is definitely in the name. Altnets are alternative networks to the incumbents / established ones.

They connect customers directly to their networks

Snoopz - so you don’t understand the complexities of churn for the context of openreach and its network.

Can you work out how many different kinds of churn there might be from openreach perspective & the very different impacts these have ? Thought not, I bet you’ve never spent a second thinking about it.

So you are saying starlink isn’t an alternative network & somehow, magically, openreach don’t lose out should one of their connections move to to it?

Interesting

Marab - altnet stands for alternative network

Connections moving to an altnet means they don’t use openreaches network.

You are describing a “service provider”

Where an account moves to a different company but they still use openreaches network at a wholesale price

Obviously there are exceptions to everything, but this would be the general rule

Snoopz - so starlink isn’t an alternative network then, when talking about BT?

So when we are talking about Openreach and customers connected to it, an Openreach connection moving to starlink can’t be considered the same as it moving to … I dunno, say city fibre?

So to you it’s completely different is it? Do you think openreach maintains some kind of magic hold and revenue, when these connections move to starlink? In some way different to a move to city fibre

No. Because from openreach perspective they are the same thing, which is what I said.

As for churn. You don’t stand a scooby of working out the complexities behind that number, because it’s not just moves away from one network to another.

Snoopz - you really need to stop & think yourself sometimes

If starlink isn’t an alternative network, then what is it?

Starlink developed starlink - do you seriously think Elon, designs, builds & engineers everything he pays for?

Seriously go to the naughty step.

Spanialeze - I did say I could be wrong

So you are saying a total of 169,000 connections have left the network.

Whereas I read that as Openreach has 169k less connections. Which if they are connecting new accounts (which they are) the total number leaving the network would be new connections + 169,000. Even though most of those are replaced with new ones, which I think is called churn. But that doesn’t escape the fact of how much movement there is & does the new connections hide how many are moving to altnets where openreach don’t have fibre?

Same as with all altnets (starlink being one of them)

They don’t need to take all or even a majority of BT’s business, they only need to take enough revenue to impact BT operations and ability to service dept, dividends, future upgrades etc etc

With respect to starlink, once you agree about the genius behind it (not Elon) they you can’t assume the same genius hasn’t already though about and resolved its capacity.

Areas - I’m not going to argue that 10% pre tax profit drop is or isn’t significant.

The theme of my post still stands BT is continuing to shrink but currently market thinks they can deliver cost cutting in time.

As do I

I find it stunning how posters are denying what PRK is saying.

The strategy is that BT will shrink, lose customers and revenue over time.

The two bets are whether BT can deliver its cost cutting in time so that profits increase or whether something will disrupt these plans leaving BT with major worries.

The latest update seems to suggest BT are confident they can do it still, but fact remains they are in a race to deliver these plans quickly as they can.

I’m still invested so I think they can.

My question and my thinking is what do BT do after this initial plan is delivered, they can’t carry on shrinking, because they won’t be able to easily costs again.

I still don’t know for sure whether Openreach gained 566,000 connections with 168,000 leaving or whether they have gained 566,000 but ended up with a 168,000 (fro memory) loss which suggests lots of business going to altnets?

Good day for share price today though, I didn’t expect that, but it’s not a matter of opinion, revenue, profit etc act are significantly down.

I’ll keep my eye on what disruptors do next and next reports

MJS1 - I read those numbers as

566000 additions - openreach 167000 loss

So if you gain 566000 but end up with 167000 less

It might mean 566000 in and only 167000 out that would be okay.

I did say I could have read it wrong

False argument there snoopz

National security UK didn’t see a problem, Huawei was removed after political pressure from America.

Even if America were right and uk security services wrong, equipment used for spying is different to new ownership & no one is talking about allowing a sale to “just anyone”

You are guilty of inflating your point of view to try and win an argument.

Notakin - yes you’re right share price rise is very good.

I see some reports saying BT has “stems” its losses and network rollout paying off.

With over 650,000 connections lost to other operators in 3 months!!!!

Hmmm. I’m pleased with share price rise, but is it real or maybe I misread those figures and or my conclusion?

“ On the operational front, BT reported "record customer demand" for Openreach FTTP, with net adds up 46% year-on-year to 566,000, while its retail FTTP base grew by 32% to 3.7m and its total customer base increased in the period, with its broadband base up 11,000 and post-paid mobile base up 41,000.

However, Openreach broadband lines fell by 169,000, driven by losses to competitors and a weaker broadband market, and business adjusted UK service revenue was down 2%.”

Not sure how market will respond as BT says its in line but

Those numbers say other things, I think. Record wholesale connections but an overall loss of 169,000? If I read that right well over 650,000 connections lost to other networks.

Small increase 11,000 retail customers

Associated losses of income reported

If someone out there wants to give me the good news?

Fleecy - the first rule of telecom security is to use the correct encryption & the second is to assume over time it will be broken.

Physical restriction & a few PV engineers is not a reason to stop a BT sale.

I’d hope similar precautions could be in place for banks etc.

The differences between retail, Wholesale and altnet (including VM) BB connections are very important.

A retail is the best revenue / profit option for BT and hurts all competition

A wholesale connection is a lot less revenue and increases competition impact on BT. Large wholesale service providers will have more and more power over the wholesale price they are prepared to pay, as altnet coverage expands.

An altnet connection is the worst possible outcome for BT where it sees no revenue.

So PRK - I read situation slightly differently

I’m hoping for £350 at some point in short to medium term because at some point of delivered, BT will deliver reasonable free cash. Although I do agree, lots of obstacles

I think you describe what I see as the next phase of BT. If BT doesn’t do something drastic, my opinion is it’s a picture of steady decline, without the ability to dig themselves out of it by cutting costs.

I don’t want to see this which is why I want to see radical action and a concentration on revenue growth & cost cutting, or a stronger defensive strategy & cost cutting.

Cost cutting alone doesn’t work for me long term.

It’s why I like lil rods idea to split openreach up across major competitors, sky, Vodafone etc. that way BT can release some cash value, reduce dept and incentivise competitors to grow Openreach customer base rather than go elsewhere.