Member Info for Atanasoff

It's worse than that. If the newsagent had run out of twix in 2022 and someone said "okay I will wait to buy the twix when you have it back in stock" and then bought it in 2023 that isn't a sales increase. It is deferred.

In addition, if the newsagent focused on just selling Twix sooner or later all those that wanted to buy Twix would have. This is called marker saturation and growth in Twix sales would stop.

Now, imagine that you only ever need to buy one twix. Buying more would be pointless.

All that combined creates a problem as acknowledged by the board of newsagents.

Not much to be upset over on the results and great to see dividends back.

This stock has underperformed for a long time but hopefully the changes made will continue to reap rewards.

People cashing out profits leaving the LTHs back at square one.

Think this could see a sell off going into the weekend. 3p must be a tempting sell price. Won't be that for long.

No one has mentioned Jags big confession yesterday. oops.

4:30 should be interesting.

Anyone interested in this share should ask one question as it is pivotal to everything else. How much of the revenue of 4.9m (H1 2022: £3.4m) is made up of the opening order book of £2.4 million (2021: £1.4 million) on 1 April 2023?

Why is this important? You will always get some carry over between financial years. But let's take the 2021 figure as a benchmark (because sales declined by 12% last year and CNSL cannot use that as any gauge of success).

For the hard of learning - £2.4- £1.4 million = £1.4 million on the order book extra than would be expected. This by the boards admission was due to production issues and other issues rather than an uptick in sales.

So, we can deduce that excluding the additional order book volume of £1.4m carried the revenue in H1 23 would normally be £3.5 million. That means, in reality sales are static. (If this used H50 logic we would deduct the whole order book but that wouldn't be an accurate reflection).

Even worse, they are static against 2022 (which, to repeat was a drop in revenue of 12%)

I hope they get challenged in this.

PS - Based on the consultant costs and other bits - if that is considered they are still looking at a cash burn of £1.2 million this year

Source: 3 Aug 2023 07:00 - RNS Number : 1414I

You have been warned - treat RNS as budget statements from the government. The devil is ALWAYS in the detail (no one has spotted the gotcha yet - lol)

H50

That is the funniest thing any of you spamming losers have posted so far today. Think you just beat your other corker.

Remember - it is better to not post and let people believe you're an idiot rather than post something and confirm it.

Something you and calderkate never seem to learn.

He didn't buy at 1.65p

I dont think he is in profit. Note when he started spamming and the buys leading to that.

Small time loser.

Ladies and Gents

Here we have someone trying to pretend they are stupid by posting headlines instead of detail.

Didnt work leading up to the results. Won't work now.

As I have posted some good news in the result but all that glitters is not gold. That is why you need to look at the P&L and understand it.

Erskine

1) That is patently untrue and you know it.

2) No they haven't. Loser. Your punt and ramping havent worked. Take your loss and move on.

H50

You crack me up. So funny. Pray tell how you get to a market cap of £20m? What indicators do you have? What EBITDA projections do you have? (deal I am involved in current has a 6 times multiplier btw. My own business has just been valued with a 5 times multiplier).

Calderkate

Yes, to an extent. They were never going to make a profit this year but digging through the P&L isnt pretty. As always it is like listening to the budget statement yesterday - CNSL paint a rosey picture but the facts are in the figures.

Nothing in these figures suggest profitability either this year OR crucially next.

In simple terms these results mean the decline has slowed. That is it. Like saying inflation has halved means that prices are still rising. All this means currently is that they won't run out of money as quickly.

A sleight of hand on the accounts is also in there - has anyone else spotted it?

(PS - having to restate last years accounts so they were even worse than declared is embarrassing !)

More I am reading the more it would indicate the share should drop tbh.

Growth in revenues up by £1.5 million BUT they had £2.4 carried from last year.

Overheads have also increased by 31% to £3.5m

This is why it is important for investors to actually understand how to read an RNS and the P&L because away from the words said these are the facts. Sadly, losers like you believe everything on a superficial level.

Note:

"although in the absence of any further backlog to fulfill, is expected to be slightly lower than H1 FY24"

This means that currently they may meet 21/22 revenue which was poor or 22/23 which was 12% down on the previous year. That is not good in anyones book.

This is a good RNS overall because Chartwell have done a great job but it would be very unwise to assume this is the unicorn you would like it to be because the facts dont support that.

Some surprisingly good news in today's RNS. BUT be careful - look at the figures and you have some warning signs. Here are the benchmarks and the results:

1) £4m in bank with no deferments - anything below will be a disaster as it demonstrate they haven't slowed the cash burn. Below £3.8m and they are in trouble.

GOOD - This is good - balance of £4.4 means cash burn has slowed to £1million every 6 months. Still poor when taken in context of sales and margin growth BUT it is an improvement. In addition exceptional costs will also add to the burn so H2 will be of interest.

2) Sales recovered from last years dire performance - (rev down 12% last yr to £7.5m) Would expect to see revenues tracking to at 2022 levels at least (which were poor at 8.5m) - anything below £5.25m will be bad as they had to carry £2.3m from last yr

NEUTRAL - Revenue and margin up which is good. But we also need to note the warning that now they have caught up with FY22/23 (£2.4m) H2 will not be as stellar. As they didn't make any forecast for 23/24 I am not sure what market expectations are. One to watch BUT going in the right direction.

3) White label products - understand why the delay in launch and news with adjusted revenue and margin expectations

BAD - Only in trial.

4) Additional comms payment - this should be on the books by now ("up to" £1m)

BAD - Not mentioned.

5) News of ongoing dispute with tax payers money - not expecting news. If just "confident" noise then it won't be good!

NEUTRAL - As expected with no news.

6) News on search for new site - would expect them to have located somewhere to replace the failed relocation and negotiations underway at least.

NEUTRAL - This seems to have been ditched. Neutral as it isn't critical currently but is a business risk.

7) News on US revenues and margins (and regulatory approval for medical devices) - unless this has significantly grown from the 2 machines already announced then they are playing

BAD - Only one machine up and running. No indication of other growth.

8) News on success of App - this remember is central to the USP they are offering as a service wrap. Expecting to see strong numbers for use. If not then it will speak volumes.

NEUTRAL - Not very much progress.

9) News on China market revenues and margins - strong repeat sales needed.

NEUTRAL - No news so who knows?

10 ) News on CFO - I am expecting an announcement. It has been 3 months now so failure to recruit a strong candidate will be a big red flag.

BAD - No announcement.

Overall although the figures are encouraging this is a company still burning cash and making significant losses. BUT they could have been much worse

The share may even rise a bit today based on headlines.

PS - Also shows why you should never trust "leaks" and "indie" gossip. Base everything on facts.

12 Green Stripes since my last post.

The market must have really picked up and the share must be rocketing on volume........what's that? Barely over 10k of trades?

hahahaahaha

# Trades 6

Vol. Sold 81,000

Sold Value £1.97k

Vol. Bought 388,789

Bought Value £10.10k

Whomever bought at close is "brave". Already down 15%. Something they will no doubt be familiar with.

See you all in the morning losers.

I’ve blocked the losers which is extremely satisfying.

Day before results and less than 10k traded. No one of sane mind has fallen for the fakey3 ramp. Hope he hasn’t sold yet. Need those losses nailed on.

Calderkate: I'm guessing company will release some news before the 23 November.

Wrong. Again.

Wonder if the green stripes will continue to spam the board when the results are posted. LOL.

Hi Anthony

I dont. Not a dime or a nickel. I have explained this many times. Some watch gut rot TV. I read and stalk dog shares. This one is my main one as I lost a few grand on them during covid.

Seeing this fail is reward enough.

Two days to go and despite the formerly banned poster making unsubstantiated posts and spamming the board in the hope his position can be closed the reality is that no one is buying it. Some LTHs have been averaging down (Again) but fundamentally the ones on this board aren't putting their money where their mouth is. Tells you everything.

Best stick with those that publish actual research (note never countered - just conspiracy theory and lies thrown back). Meanwhile 500,000 shares dumped going in to close:

# Trades 17

Vol. Sold 735,264

Sold Value £17.92k

Vol. Bought 89,004

Bought Value £2.31k

(PS - I just C&P from the LSE board - I do not make adjustments for errors they make because it isn't worth it)

Low volume, declining prince 0.2p in the last few sessions. Guess which way this one is going?

Big results coming - but I don't think they are going to be what the rappers want you to believe.

Popcorn bought and stitches prepared for when my sides split.

Captain

They have changed strategy to go through distribution partners. This has some benefits (sales teams in the US are criminally expensive and selling is better when dealing with fellow countrymen) but that obviously also means you are a hostage for fortune, competing for attention with the partner (that will have other products to sell/promote) and will need to have lower margins as they carry the selling costs.

What I found helpful when working with a client on this very issue was the involvement of what is now the DBT. They can provide funding for discovery and research with partners. Think it cost about £50k if I recall (was some years ago). I haven't seen CNSL indicate they are working with the DBT which is a surprise.

At the very least I would expect to see engagement with an outsourced third party marketing company to help them discover and hit the phones of partners and the website developed for the US market.

With my research below and other factors I don't think they are either serious or know what they are doing. I have never known a UK company in manufacturing sector that has found it either easy or cheap to break the US.

To help understand how tough it is the trade agreement with Florida recently entered by the UK government is extremely vague and doesn't provide any firm commitments. Americans like buying American products from America.

This is some research. I know that may confuse some but I hope that one of you will raise this as a question in the presentation following release of what is almost certainly going to be dissapointing results.

This has been raised before and ignored. So here goes:

POTENTIAL PROBLEM ONE

CNSL has two main tests - food print and food detective. The two US sales have been for the former. They haven't given us any information on the later sales in the US. Why not?

What is worrying from a someone that may want to invest is that the CNSL website indicates no compliance with HIPAA for either. This is a US regulation on clinical relates goods and services. It's a slow process to get approval. Now they MAY have this but we know what they are like for governance and controls. The farce during the COVID pandemic indicates that. Alarmingly they have also only just got ISO accreditation for the production side of the business. This is shocking for anyone in the medical sector.

Without HIPAA you have no product. For credibility you would use CLIA certified Labs. And yet we have had ZERO RNS from what I can find going back to 2017 when they announced the strategy to push into the US market.

The website is poor, the privacy policy is poor (e.g they still refer to Privacy Shield which was scraped over 2 years ago) and no amendments to California Law are referenced. Perhaps they have just forgotten.

But, if your business is going to focus on moving into the world's largest market wouldn't you be putting US regulatory approval and compliance with state and federal law front and centre?

POTENTIAL PROBLEM TWO

Foodprint is a key brand for CNSL. But in the US they do not hold the registration. FoodPrint is a registered brand of the GRACE food foundation. Now IP is not my speciality by any stretch but it would seem that from a branding perspective a UK brand will struggle for traction and may face legal implications if it conflicts with a similar food based brand. At the very least it will make SEO.

You've been warned.