ToT on ii28 Jul 2018 11:36
Thanks SB and good to have your summary as things are getting ever more complex here. Whilst funding for next year is unclear that has always been the case here but the ramp up in production and the booking of some reserves will make the job much easier going forward ( and yes I do think you are being very conservative in moving only 25% of the 103m bls to the P1 category).
On the funding issue I have just been looking at this presentation on Schlumberger’s website:https://www.slb.com/news/presentations/2018/2018-0612-schorn-wells-fargo.aspx 1 and I think this section below is very relevant here in confirming a reducing cost base as more wells are drilled and tested and also reducing the time it takes to complete a well:
"More recently, an increasing percentage of the work has come through lump-sum turnkey, or LSTK, contracts. LSTK work is based on a contract that sets a fixed price to drill and complete a well. The model is typically applied to development land drilling activity in areas where a significant number of wells have already been drilled. This means that substantial data and records are available to define drilling programs that minimize risk. For Schlumberger, the advantages include the ability to capture the value generated by operational efficiency and reliability—two pillars of our transformation program—as well as to capture the value of well engineering and differentiated technology. At the same time, risk is managed and capped at an agreed level.
With the longer timespans of LSTK projects, increasing performance becomes accretive to margin through the benefits of the learning curves acquired. On recent contracts in the Middle East, for example, we have been able to increase footage drilled per day by 40% during a three-year period, and decrease non-productive time by more than half over the same period."
It seems to me that we are rapidly approaching an inflection point here where the evidence base becomes sufficient to attract a major. We know that at least two have been talking to the State agencies in Georgia and they will no doubt be looking very closely at the final well results from the Taribani campaign as well as the fact that the company has flowed gas from the Gareji formation for the first time. They will also no doubt be keeping a close eye on the deep gas well that Schlumberger are currently drilling just to the north of Block XII.
Meantime the share price defies logic, but that really doesn’t worry me as true value must eventually emerge and I am sure that will result in a share price which is well north of the 1p that the Directors converted their CLNs to equity.