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At the moment we don't know what the flow rates are for T45 & Dino & that is why the sp, is still dropping.

On that one they completely f.c.k. up.

So as you say, it is just hoping now rather that being confident.

Dev reply ii

At this stage the possible reserves are jaw dropping - but as always it is about getting it out of the ground and into some form of gathering infrastructure. MK possible reserves are 5.8TCF and Tarabani 3.2TCF

I think the way to look at the gas is twofold.

For MK it is the journey towards a major commercialisation of the field, and I think that requires third party support. New gas wells probably cost $5-7 million dollars and then there is the gathering and processing infrastructure. If they side track UD2 a much lower cost is involved but I still think this is more about proving that with the right techniques the gas will flow.

Tarabani is different - s last week demonstrates the gas sits alongside the oil in Eldari B and again further down in Gareji. Just say they could get 17000 cmpd from Z19 - perhaps more from other zones - and manage processing and capture - then every 1000 cmpd is worth around $200. The trick of course would be to do this multiple times, but at this point monetising the oil has to be number one priority

Apart from a very healthy initial oil flow we have up to 600,000 scfpd of gas - which is roughly 17,000 cmpd. Just for Z19. It is all in the RNS but it has not got the attention it deserved because of the UD2 focus

apologies for my dim wittedness, in comparison to the 5.8TCF gas, how much is 600,000 scfpd (17,000 cmpd) i struggle to understand the gas quantities
thanks in advance

Dev reply on ii

I think we would all accept the Xmas present comment was misjudged

MK has gas- but the well isn’t up to the job. There is gas in Tarabani as well - last RNS up to 600,000 scfd natural flow from Z19 of Eldari B, which sits on top of Gareji with its 3.2 TCF possible reserve (re NSA). Gas is still a big play here but it has never been spec’d out in the financial modelling (because they have a submitted field development plan for the oil)

Why did he buy shares??? First time I have ever heard a CEO criticised on this one! I suspect he will have realised that UD2 was struggling at the time but he still bought - because he clearly has great confidence in the eventual outcome. Same as Dustin.

This is still an oil and gas play - but it is clear that Tarabani Gas is going to move up the agenda. But the real key is monetising the oil - and I hope and expect more clarity in the next few weeks.

Hi
Zaza has lot answer
-why did he say Xmas present
-why did he say look for Gas in his last pod
Cast
-why did he buy shares last time when he had bad news on the way
-why did Justin buy shares when bad news on the way

Would hope above starts this week & for that lets hope on T45 results as they are now well over the 60 days.

Now that UD2 news, is out of the way would think that nice looking flow rates for T45 & Dino would give us a nice move upwards.

On previous positive news on the initial flow rates there must be a reasonable chance that the UD2 news being held up for around 6mths, just might have been putting a negative on sp & as we know on this bb it was the UD2 info before release that was overshadowing the very positive news on the oil side.

On LSE yesterday there were some really insightful posts - trying to extrapolate what was going on. Worth a short summary for those interested:

There was speculation that Dustin might have left - he hadn’t signed off the RNS. A LTH with good contacts checked this out - he is definitely still there and focussing on stimulation drills. Most likely just T45 and Dino.
By reasonable deduction it therefore looks increasingly likely that T39 Z19 is flowing initially without stimulation - which just goes to show how the pressures in Eldari B help
Apart from a very healthy initial oil flow we have up to 600,000 scfpd of gas - which is roughly 17,000 cmpd. Just for Z19. It is all in the RNS but it has not got the attention it deserved because of the UD2 focus
This figure is without the other Eldari B zones and of course just a few hundred metres further down lies Gareji with its 3.2 TCF of possible gas reserves
As FRR are planning to drill in up to 250 locations I suspect the business model will now evolve to offer a mix of gas and oil production - with some wells some fracked, some not - perhaps alternating through their productive lives. Will be interesting to see how deep the next drills go.
All attention now on flow rates for T45 and Dino - but it is quite easy to see a model where you start producing oil and/or gas in Eldari B, and as the life of the well progresses move up to stimulate Z9,14 and 15. Perhaps 13 as well. The life cycle of the wells goes up, operating costs decrease and ROI becomes even more interesting. In reality each well will no doubt have its own profile
A number of us (me included) believe that much of the 3 test well programme is about creating a reserve declaration opportunity . And over time this could be for both oil and gas. If you read the original NSA report to simply demonstrate that technically you can access and extract the oil (and gas) allows you to progress towards an initial reserve declaration (on Page 14 for those interested).
based on this lot - ie the gas - you might also conclude that a major might be as interested in Tarabani as in MK. Whatever - the focus is on proving up those first three wells. But of course MK will be revisited and IMHO will eventually deliver
As I have said all to play for - and I suspect Zaza was pretty gutted that the UD2 outcome overshadowed the T39 initial results. But that is life I guess - and I suspect he did the right thing (although I might reserve judgement until after the other results have been revealed!)

Hope this helps

Will produce good fiqures on the flow rates.

As has been mentioned zone 9 has been producing around 180bopd for a good while, so going on that there should be a good chance 14 & 15 will do.

There most definitely have been, some of the above today.
😁

See our waste of space is having another conversation with self.
🤣

Great post & Recommended

Has the above not been producing around 180bopd for a good while, so on that basis 14 & 15 I would think will have a reasonable long term flow rate.

Overall, it is a case of waiting on the release of the results & that must surely be next week.

On T39, as it is all within budget then it seems to be a good idea in looking into the deeper zones.

People are over thinking the gas news and missing the fantastic news from T39. Remember they only raised $750k last Sept to do the work over of Ud but don’t know how much more was spent. I believe no more than another $250k? It would have been advisable if FRR gave some details on the cost of Ud and to say that they have collected important data but this was missing. But for the love of God, they have successfully drilled in to Eldari B and flowed sweet oil from Zone 19 at T39, plus they showed that they were successful at the cement/bonding job. Remember, this was a ‘surprise’ revelation and we were only told about Eldari B at the last minute, but let us not underestimate this development. Personally I think the Eldari B will boost recoverable oil numbers, help with the conversion of the license, and booking of reserves.

As far as Exxon is concerned, they were at Block 12 and probably collected data/drill logs. The don’t need a flowing gas well from 1980s drilled by the Soviet to determine if the geology is prospective or to make a JV decision. In fact T39confirmed there is great amount of gas below Eldari B and indeed throughout Block 12. Let us also not conveniently forget that Repsol signed an MoU, Schulumberger and the Chinese have taken some blocks in Georgia.

The negative reaction to the s/p can be solely attributed to Zaza for the way he handled the Ud well. He should have said at the outset that the well will be ‘appraisal well’ rather than a productive one due to the age of the well. Instead he started raising expectation by talking about laying gas pipes and connecting to the national grid.

But I will not that distract me from the facts that he has spent massive energy on raising new finance for the Taribani campaign, dealing with YA debt and operationally completing the 3 oil wells on time and on budget.

Ultimately, he will be judged on the performance of the s/p, and here has let a lot of investors down, both retail and institutional via the PB fundraising which were priced at 0.58p and 0.46p.

Hopefully he can give us the results from T45next week, which may restore some confidence.

JMO

Thanks & both Recommended

Now above is out of the way until next year & going on the news on the oil, is looking very positive. Let's seriously hope that we start to see sp make a nice looking upward movement from next week.

Wold think that there must be a reasonable chance of T45 & DINO results being release next week, as by then both will be over the 60 days.