SB ii19 Jul 2018 12:09
This post should be read in conjunction with that Rocky theme song “getting stronger” running at the back of your mind.
No, really, I think the dark days are truly behind us - we are becoming a “proper” oil and gas company. What you can’t doubt is that Block 12 is floating on huge oil and gas resources, although you can challenge whether FRR has the financial firepower to accelerate production quikcly. In some ways, the Georgian Govt can also derive some comfort in that the country is on a strong footing to develop its nascent O&G industry and perhaps become self reliant. However, we got no comment on the Arbitration Request in today’s RNS.
Nevertheless, the finances will be getting stronger as oil production starts to rise, as will the internal technical and drilling capabilities with the Company. But there is no threat of big debt overhang thanks to the management converting theirs at 1p a share (at US$26MM), while YA will get repaid on a monthly basis instead of force selling the shares on the Market. The amount of damage [and misery] YA has caused over the years is really unforgiveable [but I guess SN should hold the can for that arrangement!]. Hopefully in the next 4-6 weeks, the company can finally tell us the collective stabilized oil production from Taribani, Mirzaani and MK. If it doesn’t come in the next few weeks, I expect to say something in the half year results by 30th Sept. This will help us to assess progress and cashflow position. On Ud, if it was a positive result, it would have helped investor sentiment and perhaps a catalyst for farmout discussions but monetization would have taken time. Nevertheles, I believe they have the data from Ud, Taribani and MK, which could help with any discussions. No doubt, there is gas there, and lots of it (actually 10.8TCF according to NS&A). We can still hope that some discussions are happening either with the oil or gas to accelerate field development. Or on securing conventional financing probably secured against the Taribani Field. But the question for Zaza would be, would I have to give Taribani as collateral with an implied value to US$484M (as per WHI) for a say US$50M facility? I would say yes. US$50M gets me another 15 wells on Taribani, adding potentially another 10 ,000 barrels a day.
Peoples emotions are all over the place after today’s RNS but Zones 9, 14 and 15 on Taribani are alone worth 0.84p - and now they have opened Eldari B - put another 34m barrels to the recoverable guage. In the meantime, the gas will going in to a JV.
JMO