Dev ii8 Sep 2018 11:49
The Niko drill could well be a bit more complex than when the initial planning started.
The Hedge Fund is only interested in at least maintaining and possibly improving upon its predicted return – both in scale and timeline.
Z19 might of course improve both outputs – faster and greater output – but FRR also need to test again for the Z19 reservoir dynamics. And of course as requested to do so by two third parties. Note Zaza’s comment in the RNS: “………such that the current production test from Zones 14, 15 and 19 will continue for a longer period of time than what was anticipated before and additional tests could potentially be performed.”
I take that to also possibly mean Z22 and Z23, or even deeper (Niko originally went down to Z25 before the dreaded sediment problems kicked in). But maybe too early for that.
This really does feel like the data set that you would need for a CPR. But the “major” experts probably won’t need to wait for a revised CPR - at least initially. Their technical experts will be perfectly able to interpret the results in the same way as a Petroleum Consultancy, so the order of getting things done might be very difficult to predict.
So on the one hand the Hedge Fund wants a relatively quick and reliable return but on the other hand FRR need to also carry out further tests. I suspect the contract discussions will take a bit more time – with the contract having to be made a bit more attractive for the lender.
Should we be worried? I think not – the big picture simply gets bigger as more data is secured, and I think Zaza will therefore do whatever it takes to get the short term squared off.
Just my opinion
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