Member Info for armatrading

It could be positive in that, if US is opposed to drilling immediately off their shores, and are going to 'war' against OPEC, then it's all good for BPC. Also, the current Saudi oil issues can only help the oil price, which should have an indirect sentiment benefit for us.

And this:
https://news.wjct.org/post/us-house-passes-2-bills-banning-new-offshore-drilling

And we have the AGM at 11am next Tuesday 17th.

Wise words, bigpat. Let's hope there's enough of a share price rise moving up to the drill date (mid-March 2010?) for us to break even or make a decent profit, and then have that free ride whatever the outcome of the drill.

Which is the lowly ambition, Specialist, £1 or 20p?

Scisborg, I've learned to appreciate Specialist's messianic utterances, they now make me smile.
I guess he would say I'm a true believer.

Apparently they will video it. Not sure if it's live streamed.

Already the word 'catastrophic' is being used to describe the oil spill from Equinor:
https://time.com/5670986/hurricane-dorian-bahamas-oil-spill/

Great stuff, Spiritefan. Hopefully we'll get this over the line.

Spiritefan, are you in agreement with the AGM resolutions? I think we have to vote them through otherwise we could be fnished.

Simon Potter's top three reasons for following (from his recent interview on Vox Markets):

1) Asset base -
Prospect inventory is measured in billions of barrels with Competent Persons Reports showing a Chance of Success in the range of 23% to 35%.
So, the asset base is considerable.

2) Plan -
Well costs at $25 million. Technical support and, indeed, funding in place to be able to deliver that well, notwithstanding whether there's a farm-in there or not.

3) Timing -
It's not out there in the future, it's in the next six to nine months. It's in the first half of 2020.

I miss Fatal and his Eurovision tips.

The loan isn’t straightforward by any means, as Bahamas is required to have the remaining funding in place, and if that was to occur via an equity raise then the loan would become convertible at a 25% premium to the placing price (or 6p if that was lower). The loan would have a three year term and an interest rate of 12%, so even just covering the interest would require £1.2 million per annum – it isn’t exactly the cheapest company to run as it is, and would have made a loss of around $2.3 million for 2018, if that hadn’t been partially offset by the $1 million exclusivity payment.

It did manage to raise $2.5 million back in March, so in terms of covering the corporate costs of running the business it has plenty of cash until at least the early part of next year – although costs are expected to rise steeply in preparation for drilling and more staff have been employed.

Currently the company is being valued at £48 million, which seems high to me given the uncertainty surrounding how it will actually fund a drill, and if it does have to secure such a large amount of funds via a placing I would expect that to happen well below the 3p level.

The company has been prone to big spikes in the past, usually followed by a sharp drop, and the only thing that I can see at the moment which would avoid the share price going back down is news of a farm out deal.

But given progress on that front to date I certainly wouldn’t be banking on that happening, and it would come as a surprise to me.

So, for me, the risks here at the moment just aren’t worth it at this level of market cap – if it is a drill that you do want to hold shares for, then there would still be plenty of upside potential if and when financing is sorted anyway. For now it is one to avoid as there are too many factors that it is dependent on and which are out of the control of the company."

"The share price of Bahamas Petroleum (BPC) almost doubled following an announcement of progress on its ambitions to drill an exploration well next year, but is such a big rise really justified? Today there is a further ramptastic "technical update", world class prospect, yadda, yadda, yadda.

The Bahamas focussed oil company has been threatening to drill one of its licences for over a decade now, but thus far no drilling activity has taken place – partly due to drilling regulations and largely as a result of a lack of funding for an expensive deep water well.

The market cap of the company has risen by nearly £23 million during the past couple of weeks since news came that it had secured £10.25 million in funding via a convertible loan and was pressing ahead with plans to drill during the first half of 2020, with an obligation to drill at least one well during 2020 under the licence terms.

The cost of drilling has reduced dramatically and the company has an agreement in place with Seadrill for a rig, with a single well expected to be in the region of $25-30 million, or possibly under $50 million for a concurrent two well programme subject to permitting.

The prospective resources make attractive reading with targets of over a billion barrels of oil in place – although only 20-25% is expected to be recoverable should a find be made – and the chance of success ranges from 23% to 35%.

With such large figures being talked about and the type of interest that a big exploration drill usually attracts, it isn’t surprising that it has attracted the interest of PIs and is now trading at around 3p on the ask.

But the reality is that this drill is unlikely to be quite as straightforward as many seem to expect, unless a farm-in partner can be found, and you have to wonder why no one has come onboard already as the company has been seeking a partner for a long time now. One potential partner did pay $1 million for an exclusivity period to secure a farm in, but never took things any further and the agreement lapsed last August.

Without a partner, Bahamas would have to seek to raise the remaining money needed via an equity issue – I find it hard to believe that any sort of debt funding could be obtained for this type of drill due to the risks involved and also the costs.

As part of the conditional loan agreement with Bizzell Capital Partners, the company has issued it with 25 million options to buy shares exercisable at 2p – and that is just the first tranche for entering into the agreement.
....

************* dot com
/views/44560/bahamas-petroleum-is-still-a-long-way-from-securing-the-funding-that-it-needs-to-drill-sell?fbclid=IwAR0aLd4n9q80bwmZlQQiX_tc8IEqgO21SPKFoGwy_5_Yh_T1ofJFKvPg3-Y

Perseverance is the name of the game

... and the well too.

vox markets dot com
and then the rest of the /media/....................

35 minutes into the podcast, Simon Potter talks about BPCs prospects.
****************************/media/5d6d0667052336001724ec21/

That sounds like really good advice, Brynjon.
We should really each have a personal plan, based on our circumstances and goals, and try to stick to that plan. Mine is to sell some shares at each major stage of the proceedings.
Good luck everyone!

For what it's worth, I shall be voting 'For' to everything. I see this as possibly the only chance to get this drilled, and potentially encourage a major back to the table and give a farm-in offer. IMHO DYOR etc.
Good luck all.