Member Info for armatrading

So, they have to issue an RNS just before Brexit Day then!!

If BPC were to go it alone on a drill, would there need to a huge insurance policy in place to ensure compliance with Environmental Regulations, and ensure safety etc..

Indeed, but let's hope not.
Happy New Year everyone!

Carrying on the ELvis theme,
"We can't go on together
With suspicious minds.
We can't be oil investors
With suspicious minds."

For the remainder of 2019, he explained that the main implication of the Hurricane Season is commercial. Drilling can and does now take place during those later months of the year. Given that advanced warnings of hurricanes are now sophisticated, it is simple enough to cap the well, move the rig to a safe haven and to remove the team working on the rig. What this means however is that say 5 days of active work are lost. Accordingly, if a company has raised sufficient funds to drill a well (an exercise lasting about 60 days), losing 5 of those days is significantly costly. Given that there might be 2 or even 3 hurricanes in one season (or of course none at all), potentially 15 days might be lost and this is what inhibits those with a more limited budget or not unlimited funds.
However, if the company is a major with a turnover into billions, the loss of 5 or even 15 working days and the ongoing expense of paying the crew and the rig etc may be regarded as de minimis in the big picture of the potential success. Therefore undertaking a spud at a time when hurricanes are more prevalent is not such a critical factor.
Conclusion
With no bad news to report, perhaps we should take the footballers’ cliché of “taking the positives” and look forward to 2019!
Happy Christmas all!
(4/4)

He did not consider that the Government was under pressure from the environmentalist lobby to avoid extending the licence if needed. He pointed out that the company had done its own PR exercise with presentations a while back in order to establish the strength of feeling and they learned that the indigenous population was very substantially in favour of drilling – their main concern being whether the benefits of the discovery would reach them or would be purloined by the politicians! Naturally, they were concerned to understand the safeguards to protect their beautiful beaches and the company had a complete answer to that with the strictness of the latest regulations with which they had to comply in drilling operations.
Bahamas Government – the Licences
BPC has no problems with the attitude of the Government. Ben was at pains to emphasise that the BoD was very well aware that the Licences would expire in about 6 months’ time and the BoD is currently, as ever, active to protect the shareholders’ position. Ben did not say that the licence position was guaranteed to be protected or that the future was “in the bag”. Very properly he could say nothing like that but my impression was that even now, there was no panic about the clock ticking down.
Predators
I asked whether there was any industry gossip or other information that had reached the company that any visitor to the dataroom had been reaching out to the Government to encourage them to play hardball with BPC so that they could pick up the licences after June 2019. Ben said that the BoD was aware that after June 2019, a company or companies might make such an approach to the Bahamas Government but he said that none would be so foolish as to make an approach whilst BPC still owned the rights. It would expose them to massive litigation. It would be illegal for them to talk to the Government because in areas of mutual interest, those visitors to the dataroom must exclusively deal through BPC at least until after the licences have expired.
Plan B
I had asked at the AGM what was other strategy was being considered besides a farm-in. Simon Potter had answered then that they were looking at an alternative to a farm-in and Ben confirmed that Macquarie had been active about this and keeping such an alternative warm. Perhaps as a slight pointer to Ben’s inner thoughts, he said that renewal of the licence would perhaps prompt some of the visitors to the dataroom to abandon any secret plans they might have had to acquire the licences after June 2019. Instead, they would have to deal direct with the company for a farm-in but in the context of Plan B existing and not being ruled out either.
Spudding
I asked that if a deal were signed quite imminently in 2019 whether it was likely there would be spudding before the commencement of the Hurricane Season at around the end of June. He said that technically it was feasible but he thought it unlikely./

The price of oil is material to the strategy of the major companies as to best use of resources and during the past 5 years there had been serious cutbacks to save expense because their own income had fallen when the price dropped below $30.
US Shale Market
He explained the US Shale market and the politics of the present oil price. Putting it as simply as I can, OPEC adopted a strategy of reducing the oil price with the intent of causing serious damage to the US Shale market. That strategy was not as successful as they had expected because although some companies had been unable to remain in the business during the very deflated oil price, more companies had survived.
The OPEC policy now is to accept the reality of American shale production. As part of my education, he explained that Shale Drilling is relatively shallow such as perhaps 5000 feet but some which would be really profitable, it would be under 1000 feet but life expectation of each well is far shorter leading the owner of the rights simply to drill once again close by.
Farm-In Deals
During current trading conditions, I wondered if Ben could explain the typical approach that majors would adopt in offering terms. He said that there is no simple blueprint and the philosophy would vary from company to company depending on their attitude to different factors. The moving parts would be the appetite for risk whether commercial or political, the potential volumes, the nearness of proven oil production, the costs of drilling and the depth. He gave the example of Senegal where because there has been a proven resource, it is attractive to potential suitors to do a deal adjacent to such a resource.
BPC’s rights are in a new basin and although legally part of the Bahamas, the reality is that it is more akin to Cuba where there is proven resource and in any event, historically past drilling in the area now covered by the BPC licence established the existence of oil then (as we all know from many previous references by the BoD to when it was discovered many years ago pre BPC at a time when it was uneconomic to drill for it).
Bahamas Government
The Government is very pro the Oil Sector as reflected in moves they have made since taking office 18 months ago. This includes the LNG terminal involving Shell. I asked whether given President Trump’s policy of America First, there had been any sign that he did not want drilling and had pressurised the Bahamas Government. Ben thought that the position was the reverse and that the President was encouraging other oil production outside the USA. He is very keen on Fossil Fuels because he wants more of it to reduce the price to help boost industry and the US economy./

From a contributor on another site :-

Meeting with Ben Proffitt at HQ, Isle of Man 21st Dec 2018

Because I had been hoping that since I attended the AGM, there would have been news by now, I contacted Ben and met him today for about an hour. As always, he was as helpful as he could be given the straitjacket that he has to wear. Constraints include the Nomads, Confidentiality Agreements and regulatory requirements for corporations. Putting out an RNS requires some price sensitive information being divulged for good or ill and it is not appropriate simply to put out an announcement to jolly people along (my words not his).
These notes are my understanding and much abbreviated version and of what I believe Ben said.
For those who don’t want to read this full summary, this is the headline:
If there were any bad news, the Board would have reported it. That burden is the same as if there is any good news.
Macquarie
The original agreement entered into expires in 3rd or 4th week of January but that arrangement will be ongoing, within the BPC budget. It will continue on a rolling basis until BPC chooses to end the relationship or there had been a successful outcome. The financial terms of the arrangement are confidential but are in line with typical investment banker arrangements. There is a payment designed to cover overheads with (predominantly) a success element.
Ben pointed out that since the major opted not to continue with the Exclusivity Agreement, Macquarie had really only been truly active for 3.5 months. During the Exclusivity Agreement, Macquarie would have been able to add value if matters had progressed but their true value arose after that Agreement had been terminated. They remain active – see further below.
Offers
I raised Simon Potter’s comment at the AGM of offers that had previously been turned down. Ben made clear that these were well in the past and had been dismissed as try-ons by companies testing to see whether BPC understood what it was doing and whether the BoD appreciated the value of what it owned.
In answer to my question as to any offers that may have been made in the last year, Ben said it was the policy of the BoD not to discuss the situation regarding any offers during the past 2 years.
Current Market Conditions
Although the oil price has fallen back from around $85 in October, Ben did not consider this to be any material impediment for BPC. For most companies interested in doing a farm-in, the current oil price would not be an inhibition. Most of the majors had depleted their resources during the past 5 years and are now looking to replenish.
BPC has said in the past that the break-even for the company even on a relatively modest find was $30 – $40 but those figures would fall even further if there were a bigger find. The price of oil is material to the strategy of the major companies as to best use of resources and during the past 5 years there had been serious cutbacks to save expense because their own

If not, they'd cry

O Come (Drill) All Ye Faithful

Oh 'Oily' Night...

In the Bleak Midwinter

VCB2's prediction:
"I'm expecting some signs of a leak soon. In my view it will start with an increase in volume and some buys in the £10k and £20k regions."

Well, this happened today with those buys amounting to around £26k. Could therefore be news in the next 5 working days or so, according to VCB2's theory.

Re the moon landings:
I didn't know they had weights in their boots.
The feather which was dropped with the hammer to demonstrate Newton;s law of acceleration, it dropped straight down...
it didn't float away....
so why would they need weights in their boots...

I thought it was 5317009 (again, it would need to be read upside down!)

There are significant Institutional Investors in BPC. There is now way they would invest if this was the case. And if anyone was pulling the wool over their eyes, that would be the end of their career, if not their liberty.

The 20 day moving average has now crossed upwards into the 30 day moving average.

A really good, honest and down-to-earth post, which was a pleasure to read.

It would be a pleasure to meet you at the 87p party, should it happen. And I'm sure it will be a very diverse crowd!

Good luck to you Inconceivable, and to all invested.

https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/BPC.LS/opinion

https://marketexclusive.com/bahamas-petroleum-company-plc-lonbpc-had-its-house-stock-rating-reiterated-by-shore-capital/2018/09/

Does this mean it stands by its rating of 6p for BPC?