Member Info for armatrading

https://www.ogj.com/articles/2019/05/karoon-gas-completes-peruvian-farmout-to-tullow-oil.html

Yup, almost £80,000 worth.

Below-normal hurricane season predicted:
https://thenassauguardian.com/2019/05/06/below-normal-hurricane-season-predicted/

Exciting times we're in.

I did a rough calculation when BPC were in exclusivity talks last year, and figured the share might be worth as much as 428p if we got a decent farm-in of 15%. I thought this was a crazy valuation, so I didn't revisit until now. maybe not so crazy, after all..

Interestking - Great point about the original 87p guesstimate being in the days of 2D.

Do you think the share price could equal or surpass 87p if there we struck oil, even with the 'dilution' of today's number of shares in issue?

IMO a gradual derisk as milestones occur, is a very wise strategy, and one which I hope to have the opportunity to deploy.
GLA.

Indeed Bonum, 25p was without an actual RNS.
There was the old '87p party' that someone had worked out a few years ago. I can't remember whether this was surmised if BPC actually struck oil, or if they got a deal.

87p in today's terms would be about 43p.

All very back-of-envelope workings out, and of course, nobody can predict how wild the market will react if that long-awaited RNS were to happen.

IMO 10p to 12p would be a reasonable expectation on announcement of a deal. This is based on the market cap/no. of shares in issue since the share price was 25p some years ago. So, to my mind, 11p is the 'new 25p'!

"Doability:

•? Production facilities and skills capabilities will use current technologies. EIA
completed and accepted
•? Approximately 300 kilometres to US markets, infrastructure, refining capacity,
contractors, services and suppliers
•? ~500m water-depth at potential drill sites and over 3D area
•? BPC has long track record of engagement in The Bahamas
•? Work Commitment: one exploration well in 2nd exploration period (prior to end
2020) "

https://www.bpcplc.com/media-centre/presentations/documents/
15th March 2019

Sorry, I didn't realise what you meant at first. Indeed, the first mention of Thayson Pinedo is in this latest RNS on Simon Potter's contract extension.
https://www.camarco.co.uk/portfolio_page/thayson-pinedo/

...was in RNS dated 18/12/2014:
http://www.lse.co.uk/share-regulatory-news.asp?shareprice=BPC&ArticleCode=7ui3yxky&ArticleHeadline=Petroleum_Act_put_before_Parliment

Maybe the deal-making between the oilies and BPC is a bit like the Brexit dealings.
Maybe they can't find anything to agree on, except the need to reach an agreement.

https://ewnews.com/pm-trump-expressed-his-concern-about-u-s-travel-advisories

"The prime minister [ of The Bahamas] said it was also pointed out to the U.S. president that it was essential for The Bahamas and the United States to have a great relationship because the US and Bahamas were not only neighbours, but Bahamians spent a lot of money in the United States."

Would the Bahamas really allow the US to sell discount energy to them, rather than becoming completely energy sufficient? What can the US do to 'lean on' the GoB to ensure this if this is what the US wants?

Indeed, Spritefan. And intraday, we went as high as 7.8p I think.
Who knows what heights might be reached with the excitement of a positive RNS. IMO, 15p wouldn't be at all surprising.

BPC had a Market Cap of c. £170m in 2010/11. This was on expectation of farm in. A similar Market Cap today, given dilution, would mean a share price of around 10p to 12p.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics-caribbean-idUSKCN1R313H

If there was a major change at the hem now, I think it could totally derail any negotiations. We could be in a worse situation, given the tight timeframes, and potentially lose the lot.

So perhaps a farm-out announcement early to mid-August this year. This would 'mirror' last year's timings, when BPC were in exclusivity talks with the major.