Member Info for armatrading

Thanks, Linton. But, I've not had any notifications about messages, and it appears private messaging is a premium service (which I don't have unfortunately) :-(

Does anyone have the full text of the Share Prophets article, and could they post it please (even anonymously)?

Thanks, Dutch, and I never would. Just gauging opinion... and I realise it is opinion. I'm invested but not adding.

Thanks everyone. I'm relatively new to this share, so I appreciate the info.

Where do you see the share price/market cap going if some good news comes at the end of this month?

The clock is ticking at Bahamas Petroleum (LSE:BPC).
11 October 2019. That is the date...
hTTps://www.valuethemarkets.com/2019/09/27/bahamas-petroleums-race-against-time-bpc/

Wow! Hope they are both 'genuine' buys. Someone in the know? Not usually any leaks from BPC, running a tight ship.

EA approval is already in place, in principle. The EA just needs the actual details of the rig, and other details such as the position of the well, then it will be officially completed.

http://www.tribune242.com/news/2019/sep/23/oil-explorer-in-total-certainty-on-25m-well/

https://thenassauguardian.com/2019/09/20/bpc-shareholders-clear-the-way-for-drilling-of-initial-exploration-well/

6p was probably used as it's the baseline price that Shore Capital value BPC at, both in 2018, and in the new valuation report mentioned at the AGM.

See notes tot he AGM, written up by an attendee:

Ø Today, Shore Capital published their report by [Lead E&P] Research Analyst, Craig Howie. Mr Howie told me that this had been prepared on a very cautious double-discount basis that confirmed a risked share price of 6p (similar to 2018).

Yes, the conditions for the loan have ALREADY been agreed.

Just to make clear, the report wasn't written by me, and I did not attend the AGM. It was written by someone who did attend. So all credit to them (although they wish to remain anonymous).

12. On a successful drill, BPC has a 30 year production licence but that is only for one small part of the overall acreage and the company will have to determine what to do regarding extending those licences to other areas for further drilling.
13. In a point emphasised previously, it is possible to drill during the Hurricane Season commencing in July 2020. The risk is a commercial one. If one of the unpredictable hurricanes is a threat, then on a budget of $25 million, pausing operations with all that entails, would add a cost of perhaps $5 million to the budget and therefore is best avoided.
14. There is no imminent listing likely on the Bahamas Stock Exchange. This has been investigated but according to the regulators in the Bahamas, it exposed unsophisticated investors to the risk of what might even be regarded as gambling regarding an oil discovery and perhaps foreign exchange.
15. In answer to a question from the floor, SP said that the Board had duly noted the suggestion/request that shareholders should be given opportunity to acquire more shares favourably.

Answers to Questions from Facebook page

a. At a London meeting, it was mentioned that the shareholder percentages of Retail to Institutions was something like 85-15. What is happening to reverse that and when and will it have a major impact on the share price?
Answer
Discussions with institutions will be ongoing right through to drilling and their involvement will impact the share price. The answer was no more precise than that.

b. What has been achieved by Macquarie?
Answer
SP said that the present and ongoing situation with funding had been achieved by “our team” of Ben Proffitt, Eytan Uliel and himself and not by Macquarie. When challenged as to what Macquarie were doing, SP indicated that they were very active with potential farm-in partners. Macquarie had “kissed a lot of frogs.”

c. Is the drilling scheduled for 1H 2020 a foregone conclusion?
Answer
It was impossible for SP to go that far. However, it did not come across that this was other than natural caution at a public meeting rather than any serious fear that the drilling would not be going ahead.

d. Is the estimated dilution to fully fund the drill 45% or is this just for initial funding?
Answer
At the current share price that dilution is more than sufficient for BPC to do the drill. Whatever ultimately happens in achieving drilling, there will be dilution at some point.

e. Are there restrictions on the rights of option holders to sell shares immediately after exercise of option rights?
Answer
In accordance with the information provided in advance of the AGM, there are different trigger points for exercise of options but there is no other restriction on selling the shares subject to the overall restrictions of those with insider knowledge.

/END

4. SP emphasised how the cost of drilling had fallen from a previous reasonable estimate of $120 million down to about $25 million and this figure had been reached by the most careful analysis of the various moving parts essential to proceed. Drilling time would be about 40 – 60 days and at a modest depth compared to the type of depth that a major might have drilled of over 21,000 feet. He confirmed that a major would accept a successful outcome based on BPC’s approach to drilling depth.
5. SP explained that the importance of the involvement of Halliburton and BakerHughes GE should not be underestimated. Such companies had done their own due diligence before agreeing to become involved along with Seadrill. Such companies do not become involved in anything which may tarnish their own public image and reputation
6. SP suggested that those interested could look at the experience of Echo in Guyana where there was a 15% stake involving 250 million barrels. This should be compared with the present position where BPC has 100% with potential into billions.
7. Current thinking was that there was a preference for a farm-in if it did not cause delays and delivered a fair advantage for the company and shareholders. SP indicated that in all his long career, BPC’s was the largest discovery and he had every confidence in oil being discovered, supported by the 3D seismic evidence and the Moyes analysis. However, he said that if a deal involved a farm-in partner, it gave the added comfort that such a major wanted to become involved.
8. In passing, he also mentioned that going it alone meant that he personally could be at risk of imprisonment if something went wrong but he indicated that everything was being done to ensure no spillage. Additionally, BPC pays an annual fee to subscribe to clean-up involving an emergency task-force.
9. Something that may be new to many shareholders was an explanation from SP that a problem for the majors was dealing with a new country (New Country Entry). It was not just Bahamas specific but part of a mindset involving any new country and the uncertainties which it could present. However, the fact that BPC is now so far advanced in its planning for 1H 2020 with Government support, has coloured the conversation with the majors in a favourable way - not least, because (to use his terminology) they now realise that the train is leaving the station.
10. On 11th October 2019, the company must sort out with Seadrill the plan for 1H 2020. Nothing is payable to Seadrill until the vessel commences its journey to the drill-site.
11. No specifics were given about what type of funding may be raised by the company. Basically, all options are open and are being worked on and assessed. The Board is confident that it will raise the money it needs.

REPORT
BPC AGM 17th September 2019
This Report is in three parts:
a) Headlines
b) General Points
c) Answers to Questions that I was asked to raise by users on the Facebook page.

Headlines
Ø All Resolutions were passed. About 340 million shares were voted and my perception was that somewhere in the region of 95 – 97% were in favour of the Ordinary and Special Resolutions.
Ø Today, Shore Capital published their report by Research Analyst, Craig Howie. Mr Howie told me that this had been prepared on a very cautious double-discount basis that confirmed a risked share price of 6p (similar to 2018). He pointed out to me that the risked NAV assumed a conservative probability of success at 10% and that if the assumption were of a 30% chance of success, the risked NAV would move to almost 20p per share. As most shareholders will know, the technical audit by Moyes and Co gave a geological chance of success of 25% – 35% so that one can see that the analyst is indeed being ultra-cautious. Finally, Mr Howie’s conclusion was that, once unrisked, the c/share rose to 83.2.

General Points made by Simon Potter (mainly) but also by Eytan Uliel (Commercial Director) and Ben Proffitt (FD / Co Sec)

1. Both the company and individual members are active in providing real support for the victims of the hurricane. SP gave details which included support for an Orphanage as well as providing relief supplies of water, food, bedding and plywood for roofing.
2. The adverse impact of Dorian on the tourist industry may be beneficial to BPC although there was one element of negativity in that because the Ministry responsible for the Environmental Impact Assessment is the same as one involving Housing, that Department may be distracted by the impact of the hurricane and handling that crisis. It might get less priority than at other times BUT, the company still intends to sign for the Seadrill rig even if the EIA had not yet been confirmed. In fact, about 90% of the work with Government on the EIA had been done but SP had considered that it would be insensitive and not timely to be announcing anything during the current crisis.
3. SP’s core message was that the strategy of the company was to proceed as fast as possible to drilling in 1H 2020 and to continue irrespective of the lack of a farm-in partner. The reality is now out there that BPC, consequent upon the resolutions today, is capable of going it alone and can weigh up the commercial advantages for the company and its shareholders when and if any potential farm-in partner wants to become involved. It was evident from what was said that the company is not short of suitors accessing the dataroom.

From the RNS:
"The permissions granted by our shareholders today will allow us to move forward a series of coordinated steps that the Company has taken toward drilling of an initial exploration well during 2020, consistent with our licence obligations, including providing important options available to us in funding the well.

Importantly, this will add tension into the ongoing farm-out discussions, such that the Board can pursue whichever funding option it deems is in the best interests of the Company and all its stakeholders."

Source at the AGM: All resolutions passed. Overwhelming support.

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/902757/bahamas-petroleum-company-plc---proactive-oil-capital-conference-902757.html

From the article: "here is a deadline of mid-October to commit to the rig."
The deadline can be rolled back by mutual consent.