Member Info for armatrading

Thanks andyh1978 - useful service.

I missed the news first thing too, as it wasn't on LSE. I'll be looking elsewhere in future... imagine if we'd missed news of a deal!

2Bn
9 months
30%

Shore Capital report June 2018 said BPC worth 6p per share. And
"We... see scope for a significant value uplift [from 6p] upon a successful farm-out."

Based on a very conservative 15 - 20% share on farm-in, well costs and investment costs paid for.
Share price at least 80p to £1.00
All guesstimates and IMHO. DYOR etc.

Potter isn't the sole decision-maker either. There's the rest of the board, which should provide a balance to any 'extreme' views.

$1.5 would give us a share price of around £, so a 50% discount against probability of finding oil, would make it 50p. That seems very reasonable indeed IMO.

I think the market could take it either way.
1) They haven't made up their mind to do a deal,
share price drifts down a little
OR
2) They must be close to a deal, they wouldn't run into a new month past the initial 3 months,
share price lifts a little.

The initial 3 months of exclusivity with the major, ends in just nine trading days, around Thursday 2nd August.

There has been very low volume trading today, but the price is keeping quite steady.

Just the whiff of a deal being made, could be life-changing for some.

All the LTH are feeling the frustration.

But, if the board were tell us anything, that information would, of course, be in the public domain. Possible commercially sensitive information would be out there for future potential counter-parties, which could give them a real advantage in any negotiations.

Indeed, part of the confidentiality agreement might be to never publicly disclose such terms. The name of the major might also have to remain a mystery.

I'd be ecstatic with 30p on announcement of a deal.

It can be Russian, Chinese, North Korean (!) or Martian, for all I care, as long as they give us a great deal!!

Shore Capital valued BPC at 6p per share in their investment report dated 8 June 2018:
"Ahead of confirmation of the outcome of the current farm-out negotiations, we are pleased to introduce a Risked NAV estimate of 6p/share."

In that report, they suggested that "we see scope for considerable share price upside if a farm-out deal is successfully negotiated."

And, "With regard to BPC's future financial position and capital expenditure
programme, a farm-out deal would be transformational for the company, in our opinion."
"We therefore see scope for a significant value uplift upon a successful farm-out."

I fully agree, and it might go even further if significant volume of high grade oil is proven.

The multiples of 6pm which Shore Capital predict, could occur just on the signing of any decent deal.

I read the word 'multiples' (plural) to mean the share price could be at least 18p when the ink is on the contract.

Probably, especially if the announcement was planned for 2pm UK time, during normal market hours.

Don;t think it was ever £1.50?

But I think there actually is a chance it could be in the future.

$40 a barrel is the figure I keep seeing too.

The value for the minimum expected recovery of oil (1.6 billion barrels), valued around £96 billion.

With a 30% retained farm-in deal, that would give BPC approx. £28 billion.

BPC is the top riser in AIM shares between 5p and 10p in the last SIX MONTHS:

http://investing.thisismoney.co.uk/market-data/risers-fallers/?type=risers&dateComparison=2018-01-15&limit=50&index=AXX&price=5%2C10&filter=

From the psychologist and friend of Gareth Southgate, Michael Caulfield, who was on the news this afternoon:

"Belief comes from evidence...."

This is so appropriate to us here; we have the evidence, we have the data, so our belief in BPC's prospects is not unfounded, not blind faith, or hope.