Member Info for armatrading

EA approval might lead to the 6p which the Shore Capital report said was current fair value? It could well surge beyond that though.

As to a Farmout Approval, I think price would very much depend on the exact terms of the deal, percentage share, etc.

And it's 4 weeks on Thursday since BPCs exclusivity agreement with the major.

I wouldn't dare resign until the shares were sold and settled in my account ;-)

Text of the Shore Capital Report from 8th June 2018:

With an exclusivity agreement with a major oil company in the bag, along with a recent
placing to reinforce its negotiating position, we believe that BPC is now positioned to
agree farm-out terms and target drilling in FY2019. The shares have already responded very positively to the news of the exclusivity agreement (announced 3rd May), although
our sense is that this could just be the start if the company successfully delivers the
goods on its long awaited farm-out deal. Such a transaction has the potential to provide
a transformational valuation read-across, cash to cover back costs and the financing
necessary to drill a very high impact exploration well in Bahamian waters in FY2019. In
the meantime, we continue to see potentially world class prospectivity in BPC"s 100%-owned Southern Licences, which have been substantially delineated and independently
audited by consultants Moyes and Co. Like subsequent exploration drilling, BPC's
current farm-out negotiations will likely lead to a binary outcome, so we acknowledge
that the proposition is not without risk. However, we now have sufficient confidence to introduce a 6p/share Risked NAV estimate and see exciting times ahead
With a crucial exclusivity agreement now in place, we are pleased to introduce a 6p/share Risked NAV estimate. Given the binary outcome that can be expected from the current process, the conservatism (or not) of our
valuation approach will surely be tested in the coming months. However, in the shorter term, we see considerable running room for the shares, noting BPC s stated confidence that a farm-out (possibly including "cash and carry" elements) will ultimately be achieved.
World class prospectivity: BPC holds 100% interests in its Bahamian licences and
Moyes, technical audit (published in December) confirmed world class prospectivity based on the latest 3D seismic data, along with estimated probabilities of success of up to 35%.
The latest volumetric assessment drives our sum-of-the-parts valuation and. whilst
acknowledging the risks, we would also fully expect an upgrade to our Risked NAV
estimate (and a concomitant share price response) if a transformational farm-out is agreed.
Maintaining a respectable cash position: Having cut administrative costs to the bone
(and deferred the majoity of board remuneration until successful farm-out completion),
BPC has recently raised £1.3m via equity issues and is also receiving non-refundable cash payments of USS250,000/month from the potential farminee (for a maximum six month exclusivity period). Despite its modest cash balances, we therefore expect BPC to remain adequately funded as it undertakes crucial farm-out negotiations in the months ahead.
Now on critical farm-out path
On 3, May, BPC announced that it had entered into a confidentiality and exclusivity
agreement with a major international oil company. BPC and the counterparty (whose
identity will r

Yes, it's genuine

I make it just seven weeks into the exclusivity period, with five weeks left until the end of the initial period.

That's the £15 billion question! I think 15 - 20% share on farm-in, well costs and investment costs paid for. Share price at least 80p to £1.00 All guesstimates and IMHO. DYOR etc.

Barchart analysis website is suggesting that BPC is now an 80% BUY https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/BPC.LS/opinion

Hope you have enough dough after the spud to get the Bentley.

Great point, Private_Investor. Love the edit!! You weren't a journo in a former life, were you?

I was just going by number of shares currently in issue. Your 2 billion shares is probably closer to the mark given the deferred salaries etc. So about 30p per share instead?

Sorry, £785 million.

And an sp of 50p would give a market cap of £78.5 billion.

Given the number of outstanding shares, at current level, an sp of £1 would give a market cap of £1.57 billion pounds.

It does make good reading, inspires confidence: https://www.bpcplc.com/about-us/staff-profiles/

#MeToo

Okay, if we get a decent sized slice of the pie in a farm-in, then the share could go over 100p (£1.00)

Is she still on the BPC team?

I'm sure she is/was fully qualified to occupy her position ;-/

It is fantastic, of course, that BPC have an UPSIDE of 28 billion barrels of oil potential. It is still in the ground, and only a certain percentage could ever be recovered. This is all about probabilities, of course, and today's RNS reiterated "The results of this work validated the Company's own in-house assessment of the prospect volumes, with Moyes reporting an aggregate mean STOIIP (Stock Tank Oil Initially In Place) of 8.3 billion barrels and upside of 28 billion barrels." Recoverable oil: "Application of a recovery factor in the range of 20% - 40% to these volumetrics would result in an unrisked EUR (Estimated Ultimately Recoverable) in the range of 1.6 billion to 3.3 billion barrels (mean), and up to 11 billion barrels (upside)." Personally, I would prefer to work within the 8 - 11 billion barrels when calculating value. IMHO this is more realistic.