Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
We’re on the verge of success according to ST… strange he doesn’t mention the nuclear detector tenders which are due soon? What happened there? Things we are keenly waiting for often just disappear into thin air…
A few snippets from last article;
“chief executive Arnab Basu revealed that he expects first commercial sales by April for Kromek’s bio-security pathogen detectors which sample air and identify the presence of any biological pathogen including Covid-19.“
“96 per cent of budgeted annual revenue of £15m covered by orders as well as 60 per cent of the £18m revenue estimate for 2022/23, the long-awaited move into cash profitability is on the cards. Jeremy predicts £0.6m cash profit in the second half to 30 April 2022 to wipe out the £0.6m first-half loss, and is pencilling in cash profit of £0.75m in 2022/23.”
So glad I ditched half of my Kromek shares in the run up to the Russian invasion as part of a broad sell off of my portfolio. The problem with Kromek is you have no idea what’s going on. The board make up so much nonsense we don’t know A) if the technology really works B) when the technology is ready C) if anyone is interested in buying any.
May as well go to the casino and bet on red or black! A few more months I keep telling myself and we’ll get some results… Arnab knows that’s what we all are thinking - and he plays us all marvellously. Little bit longer, little bit longer, oh we’re so close we need some extra funding. Then repeat.
CFO said by the end of this financial year the full spectrum pathogen detector will be available… but then again they said the same about the end of last calendar year the covid specific detector would be ready. They surely can’t keep ignoring dates they’ve set??
Kromek has a story that sounds too good to be true… Every now and then one such company does deliver on their ‘story’ while many others fall by the wayside. My conviction in Kromek sways significantly more than anything else I’ve ever owned. Right now I’m 25% sure they’ll deliver on a few of their long term objectives. Few months ago I was 75% certain. I suspect the ic summary of Kromek for this being a “pivotal year” will be accurate. Let’s just hope that pivot is in our favour.
If Kromek don’t pull a significant sale out of the bag with the nuclear detector tenders, or biological pathogen detector- which the cfo claims will be ready by the end of this tax year - formerly it was to be ready by the end of last year. Then Kromek are heading for another fundraising. A fundraising which will have the same explanation as the previous fundraising from a year ago - which I don’t believe will be warmly received. Kromek is getting to the end of the runway now. As Simon Thompson’s headline stated “it’s a pivotal year for Kromek”. Which direction it will “pivot” is yet to be seen. But the constant delays aren’t looking good.
Anyone seen the biological pathogen detector demonstrated? Or the results of the accreditation that happened months ago? Why would that be? Was supposed to be commercialised at end of last year, but wasn’t…. Another clue perhaps? It works we were told months ago, but haven’t got a single government to even say they are considering buying them or even mention them openly in public. Why would that be? I can see very little evidence, other than some vague statements from the Institute of physics that the detector works. Probably because it doesn’t, perhaps it will, but my trust in the board as evaporated. Delay, delay, fundraise. Repeat.
Gallmat, I believe everything will tank substantially more than 5% when all the implications of a Russian invasion become apparent, an angry Russia can cause a lot of damage to the West. I’d put it closer to 20-30% and have sold broadly.
Pre pandemic it was obvious looking back that there was a big problem on the way. But somehow the markets didn’t react enough beforehand. Right now it seems pretty clear there will be an invasion- yet again the markets have only mildly reacted.
An interesting article in the Telegraph:
“In the Great Illusion, a hugely influential book in the run-up to the First World War, the British journalist Norman Angell argued that the economic costs of war in Europe were so great that nobody could possibly hope to gain by starting one, and therefore wouldn’t. He was both right and catastrophically wrong at the same time. The irrational has always played a major role in history. Ignore it at your peril.”
“Even after the Archduke’s assassination, stock markets sailed blithely on as if nothing of significance had happened. It wasn’t until the troops were actually mobilised that the panic set in.”
The New York Times;
“ But the experts have been wrong before. In 2014, Mr. Putin seized Crimea, even as few Moscow analysts were predicting a military intervention. And skeptics of the view that Mr. Putin is bluffing point out that during the pandemic, he has already taken actions that earlier seemed unlikely. His harsh crackdown against the network of Aleksei A. Navalny, for example, has contradicted what had been a widely held view that Mr. Putin was happy to allow some domestic dissent as an escape valve to manage discontent.
“Putin, in the last year, has crossed a lot of Rubicons,” Michael Kofman, the director of Russia studies at CNA, a research institute based in Arlington, Va., said last week. “Folks who believe that something this dramatic is unlikely or improbable may not have observed that qualitative shift in the last two years.”
I was considering earlier how badly a war in Ukrainine war would effect the Kromek share price. I suppose the upcoming nuclear tenders wouldn’t be effected... The bio pathogen detector - better sales because of increased risk/ or lower sales because defence budgets are aimed at more pressing needs? Then there’s the CZT business that shouldn’t be effected...
So we can safely assume Kromek will continue to deliver a sustained and reliably steady loss. A renewed placing might not go down so well in a market rout I suppose. But I’d say Kromeks share price would probably fall at a slower rate than the rest of the market. So based on that we could all be relative winners soon!
I’m just loosing track of all the different reasons things haven’t happened and all the good news about to happen. Seem to be a constant stream of excuses and new imminent good news about to happen. All while the board don’t seem interested in buying any stock no matter how low the SP goes.
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/e55b4716-9587-429e-b518-685fe659fa83
About the virus killer
I have low hopes for the covid specific ones. I think they will be very niche sales for this. I base this on the low sales of Rentokils virus killer machine which cleans the air of all viruses. Governmental sales are the only market for this detector, as I see it, m and they would be huge.
The covid specific ones were priced at £20,000. The market for the ‘full spectrum detector’ is for governments to detect and prevent new pandemics entering. To network a country with these budgets in the Billions have been quoted by the CEO and the United States congress. Governmental sales are the only market for this detector as I see it. If they come they will be huge. The ceo recently stated they were “in serious discussions with multiple governments”, another article in the National News from the Middle East stated Dubai was looking at them. Congress have proposed a budget of $10bn a year for 10years for bio defences and Kromek this week published a White Paper with a forward by the previous defence secretary Michael fallon.
The list comes out on Friday and has a huge effect(10-30%) on each share mentioned. The list is not know before this. Any gain will likely be fairly frothy until there’s news of the nuclear detector sales/biological pathogen detector/sale of part of business. But who knows. I’d suggest it’s a 40% chance of Kromek appearing on the list
18p, still an obscenely low price for what’s on offer here. Should be beyond to 50p as Cenkos stated in their research note. So many catalysts that could trigger a share price surge this year, namely:
*Bio defence orders from new biological pathogen detector - “serious discussions with multiple governments” ceo
*Nuclear detector tender success - tens of millions in revenue, upcoming news on this (current total revenue only £15m)
*A bid for the part of the business management have identified they are prepared to sell (recent sale of rival comparable CZT business for £200m)
*very good chance of inclusion in Simon Thompson’s annual bargain shares edition (10-20% gain on Friday if this happens)
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/amp/news/962195