Member Info for aprogerson

Weekly chart clearly shows GWMO has been range bound between 0.215p support and 0.265p resistance since 18-Jan-2021 awaiting start of 2021 Accelerated Exploration Programme which is encouraging as it makes strong SP base for upcoming news flow.
ATB APR

Yes @Newbie, 8 months in negotiation with AAL to buy/JV some or all of our 540km^2 licences containing at least 2x Tier 1 copper deposits. AAL have concluded Technical study and DD. Talks now down to what the offer is. ARCM is funded for 2 years and in that time will go into production so any walkaway downside is more than covered if we even go there!

Suggest you read some of the RNSs if you want to know more & DYOR
ATB APR

If Low6 goes for a Placing as part of its IPO (very highly likely) then it will have to offer its shares to the market and will need to balance cash raised with decent % return to its early backers whilst avoiding not pricing itself too high and not shifting the placing shares. Rincon placed its shares too low so overly diluted its founding funders by placing a lot of new shares so it will be interesting to see what Low6 does ... my guess is it knows the demand will be very high so will price aggressively as it also needs funds to fund its new game developments and expand to drive its growth model. It's whole model is predicated on marketing its products and so I suspect it will bring those skills forward when selling itself at IPO.

You could apply for IPO shares and if you get some you will get them at the IPO price ... the risk is you don't get any/all the shares you asked for. I understand from the HotCopper BBs that ASX is very quick allocating shares and returning any unused funds.
AIMHO APR

@Techtonic You can trade directly from II and it even converts your £ to A$ when you place the trade. I simply take my £available and divide by 0.55 to get A$available and place a Buy Limit order for that amount; if you get it wrong II tells you to add cash or place a different amount/price order until you can cover it. Alternatively trade direct but you will need to be a night owl as market opens 23:00 UK. I would also open ASX site to see market price range and volumes to date as II is not very intuitive. If you are patient and in no rush you can get good prices if the market is thin as sellers have to take whatever price you are offering to buy at or not at all.
Good luck and have fun!
APR

I moved my ISA funds over to ASX so I could trade Rincon shares directly as a number of other GUN holders suggested and kept my SIPP invested in GUN. I was getting a bit frustrated at the delays getting everything setup but it stopped me buying in straight after their IPO at A$0.45c . Instead I have been drip feeding in funds over the last 2-3 weeks buying small batches using limit buy orders below the prevailing market price as I knew there would be little or no news before end of March when drilling commenced.

I finished buying in last night as gold bottomed so managed to average down reasonably well to sub A$0.30c overall. Perhaps I can get some sleep now rather than starting trading at 23:00 UK to catch ASX open to see if my order was being filled or not. Let's wait and see what happens in both GUN And Rincon over the next few weeks ... it should be interesting!
ATB APR

@JJT You are correct investing direct gives you ALL the gains but if you get in post IPO and the stock is heavily chased as I think Low6 will be then you may not get in 'cheap'. Like all IPOs it depends on the strike price set and how much (if any) they decide to raise at IPO. What I like about the ASX system is if they place at IPO anyone can apply for the new shares which will be available 8-10 days before IPO. IF new shares are oversubscribed you may get some or none of your requested shares depending on what the prospectus says.

Have a look at the Rincon ASX prospectus from their 21-Dec-20 IPO as it was oversubscribed with bigger requests being fulfilled and a lot of smaller investors getting nothing as allocation was at RCRs discretion. Low6 prospectus and allocation may differ.

Link to ASX new listing site @ https://www2.asx.com.au/listings/upcoming-floats-and-listings
ATB APR

@roley I have low expectations for the Rogue Baron IPO this Friday so I'm kind of hoping I will be pleasantly surprised and it will be well received ! Maybe I have been hard on them but their prospectus is a bit thin to say the least and (I think) an opportunity missed whether GUN have not advised them well or more likely RB Owners have not listened to GUNs good advice.
APR

@JJT Investing in ASX directly is straightforward once you have found a provider that can give you ASX access. I have now moved my ISA over to Interactive Investors who allow ASX stocks to be traded in both ISA and SIPP wrappers. The biggest problem I have had is the time it takes to transfer an existing ISA to a new provider which should take less than 4 weeks according to FCA guidance but this has been noted by some providers I spoke to as 'variable'.

Personally I cashed my ISA, opened a new II ISA and just moved my cash in the same day (I did have less than £20k and a full 2020/21 allowance) and then closed my previous account. Clearly DYOR around use of ISA/SIPP wrapper, tax advantages, costs, risks et al. My comments are clearly not advice just what I did as it worked for my circumstances & needs!
APR

@TornadoTony Useful piece. My assumption has been that the bond yields would rise for all teh reasons you outlined until they become unbearable as the US Government cannot allow things to get to a position where it becomes effectively insolvent.

At some point (soon) yield suppression will resume and real interest rates will head further negative rather than further positive as they have been since Aug-2020. The various commentators in this space have been citing circa 1.5% on the 3-year and 3% on the 10-year ... we are currently around those levels which is why I think this situation will not be allowed to persist.

Once the Fed restarts yield suppression activities in earnest then the gold/silver bull will resurge. We may even get gold and the USD rising in unison as USD is the 'least worst' fiat currency so safer than being in cash elsewhere.
ATB APR

I do hope so as holding these last few weeks has been painful seemingly despite good news
ATB APR

@techtonic Analysis in 2 parts Low6 and Rincon (corrected figures below) ...

Low6 Investment @£265k cost to date:
Data from last funding round and Companies House info you provided is:
Low6 shares = 544,381 @£30 each = £16.3m MCap implied as NOT quoted entity
GUN Low6 shares = 6,667 (£200k cost) +2,167 (using £65k CLN @£30/share) = 8,834 or 1.62% for £265k invested

If as is suggested Low6 were to become a Unicorn then they would need 62x MCap growth from here valuing GUNs investment at £16.2m on the same basis.

Rincon Investment @£258k cost to date:
RNS 25-Jan-2021 "Gunsynd now holds 8,900,000 shares in Rincon representing approximately 17.34% of Rincon's issued share capital."
Rincon 52.2m total shares and MCap =£6.9m with £3.8m cash !!!!
Gun holds 8.9m shares or 17.34% for £258k invested & valued at £1.2m today (RCR=A$0.245c)
Rincon announced its maiden drilling programme 15-Feb-2021 for late Mar-21 start across 3 projects with drilling at Hasties Gold/Copper project very near NCMs Telfer targeting Apr-21 drilling start for a 5,000m aircore drill programme targeting maiden MRE Dec-2021.
My expectation is Rincon MCap to rise to £15/21m (1 to 2x bag) near term on drilling commencement and £21m (3x bag) to £35m (5x bag) dependent on grade & intercept lengths of drill results.

In Summary:
GUN is an £8m MCap InvestCo with 3x near term price triggers namely:
> Low6 IPO in April-2021, if (its a BIG if) no dilution & Unicorn status then £16.2m to GUN
> Rogue Baron IPO in Mar-2021, modest expectations IPO @£5m to monetise GUNs investment @nil premium !
> Rincon & Hasties drill programme commencing Apr-2021 = 1 to 2x bag (£1.2m to £2.4m gain to GUN) & May/June on drill results = 3 to 5xbag (£3.6m to £6m gain to GUN)

Note: Rincon valuation comparable = Wishbone (AIM:WSBN) with licences north of NCM Telfer & valuation of £21m with IP surveys for drill target ID & cash raised in Dec-20, but no drill start or results as yet.
AIMHO & DYOR APR

@techtonic Analysis in 2 parts Low6 and Rincon ...

Low6 Investment @£265k cost to date:
Data from last funding round and Companies House info you provided is:
Low6 shares = 544,381 @£30 each = £16.3m MCap implied as NOT quoted entity
GUN Low6 shares = 6,667 (£200k cost) +2,167 (using £65k CLN @£30/share) = 8,834 or 1.62% for £265k invested

If as is suggested Low6 were to become a Unicorn then they would need 62x MCap growth from here valuing GUNs investment at £16.2m on the same basis.

Rincon Investment @£258k cost to date:
RNS 25-Jan-2021 "Gunsynd now holds 8,900,000 shares in Rincon representing approximately 17.34% of Rincon's issued share capital."
Rincon 52.2m total shares and MCap =£6.9m with £3.8m cash !!!!
Gun holds 8.9m shares or 17.34% for £258k invested & valued at £1.2m today (RCR=A$0.245c)
Rincon announced its maiden drilling programme 15-Feb-2021 for late Mar-21 start across 3 projects with drilling at Hasties Gold/Copper project very near NCMs Telfer targeting Apr-21 drilling start for a 5,000m aircore drill programme targeting maiden MRE Dec-2021.
My expectation is Rincon MCap to rise to £15m (1x bag) near term on drilling commencement and £21m (3x bag) to £35m (5x bag) dependent on grade & intercept lengths of drill results.

In Summary:
GUN is an £8m MCap InvestCo with 3x near term price triggers namely:
> Low6 IPO in April-2021, if (its a BIG if) no dilution & Unicorn status then £16.2m to GUN
> Rogue Baron IPO in Mar-2021, modest expectations IPO @£5m to monetise GUNs investment @nil premium !
> Rincon & Hasties drill programme commencing Apr-2021 = 1 to 2x bag (£1.6m to £3.2m gain to GUN) & May/June on drill results = 3 to 5xbag (£4.8m to £8m gain to GUN)

Note: Rincon valuation comparable = Wishbone (AIM:WSBN) with licences north of NCM Telfer & valuation of £21m with IP surveys for drill target ID & cash raised in Dec-20, but no drill start or results as yet.
AIMHO & DYOR APR

@Angoose GUN is £8m MCap so will need to rise £72m to 10-bag off the £265k Low6 holding implying a 270x uplift on our investment. Never say never but I would l would love to be around to watch that !
GLA APR

Difficult to answer without some more information on a 'valuation comparable' for Low6 Particularly as I can currently find no information on the pre IPO shareholdings and/or capital structures (Pires and GUN hold shares but no idea on total shares) let alone what they are proposing for IPO and/or any associated raise to fund expansion and/or new product offerings as I would expect.
You already have my thoughts on Rogue Baron and Rincon, but I suspect that Low6 will drive GUNs SP in the near term.
ATB APR

By my calculations from todays TR1 Akers has 25m GUN shares or 6.19% worth £460k at todays prices

More importantly Chris Akers (Twitter SportsChris) also holds 16.16% of Pires as per Holding RNS there today as well as 6.19% of GUN. Curiously both GUN (£265k) and PIRES (£235k) have holdings in Low6 (a Sports Betting company) that is due to IPO

"... if you listen to this months Spotify interview with Jamie Mitchell of Low6, he says the IPO is taking place in April, and draws a comparison with PointsBet , which IPO'd with 100,000 subscribers (same as Low6) and is now valued at at around £1.6Billion." (thanks @Tectonic @Pires BB)

I don't believe in accidents & coincidences especially when he is so heavily invested it is obviously a conviction play
ATB APR

@staffnumber Yes I have calculated NAV previously. but not since Rincon IPO'd back in Dec-20. Looking through I'm happy with your numbers, but I think cash position is slightly higher as GUN is low OPEX costs
Cash = £1.5m (£1.1m cash Nov-20 +£163k Angold +£200k Jan-21 warrants +£55k Warrants Feb-21 +£67k warrants Mar-21 less £85k more Rincon)
Investment NAV = £5.75m
Enterprise = £7.25m
MCap = £6.77m so 7.1% discount to Enterprise NAV +cash

My expectations:
> Low6 cost £265k (2% holding) and my expectation is minimum 400% gain or £1m profit on Q2 IPO
> Rogue Baron current NAV £1.8m (28.5% & £111k CLN) and IPO at £5m but illiquid & no cash raise
> Rincon £6.9m MCap (17.34% holding RNS 25-Jan-21 & £1.2m NAV) newsflow from end Mar-2021

In summary Low6 should do well on IPO as expectations are very high (see AIM:Pires as also an investor), Rogue Baron IPO I am completely underwhelmed as no cash raise or marketing and 2-page prospectus is frankly rubbish & cursory. Rincon is a dark horse and exploration is only just getting underway in Aussie so newsflow should pickup in coming weeks. I have a £21m target MCap for Rincon by end Jun-2021 or £2.4m uplift to GUN. I hope I'm wrong about Rogue Baron and it exceeds my low expectations!
AIMHO APR

@socialist Thanks for the information, but for balance just need to point out that the recent AGM provided approval to the BoD the ABILITY to issue a further 620m shares. Remember GUN is an investment company and its primary source of raising new cash for further investments is via its existing shareholders and/or new investors by issuing new shares to raise the necessary cash.

For me an investment is GUN is simply do you or do you not trust to BoDs judgement in finding and securing new investments at decent rates with manageable risk and then identifying a path to an exit and monetisation at attractive returns?

We know Peter Ruse is currently hunting for a Copper investment as he has told us so and both Low6 and Rogue Baron are planning to IPO in the next few weeks. What he cannot control is timing of exit/monetisation and when something juicy may darken his door. Pre-approval of issuance up to 620m new shares gives him that optionality and firepower. No one likes dilution, but as long as he does it AND delivers increased shareholder value in short order then I am okay with that.
ATB APR

If GWMO can get their copper play back on the agenda and demonstrate viability with the newly added M2 drilling then as Copper is 'Resource De Jour' then a considerable rerate is on the agenda. My other 2x copper exploration plays are currently sat at much higher MCaps but differ in scale and advancement to GWMO.
> Castillo (AIM:CCZ) - very much early doors high-grade copper exploration in Aussie = £23m MCap & JORC planned Q2
> Arc Minerals (AIM:ARCM) - advanced copper exploration play in Zambia = £73m MCap & no JORC, but interest from Majors and small scale production and very decent £20m+ FCF in 12-18m

By contrast GWMO is MCap = £8m of which £2m is cash with a modest JORC copper resource and modest near-term revenue from Tailings production and a good side line in Gold/Silver exploration. An enticing prospect !
GLA APR

@Mcadder My suspicion is that M2/M4 drilling is back on the agenda because the light drilling rig & target location is relatively cost effective to drill, the BoD are flush with cash and most importantly copper is up 50% from when the project was shelved in Nov-2019 substantially transforming the resource economics for the better.

IF the planned drilling can demonstrate resource continuity between M2 and M4 targets, as was their original aim before they got side-tracked by their ill-fated Sharkstooth moonshot, then the JORC resource will also scale up considerably. To put it mildly IF all these things align it would be a game-changer for GWMO as a copper JV would become not only viable, but considerably more attractive as would the JV terms for GWMO as the project risks would diminish.
ATB APR