Member Info for aprogerson

Nice that's what I call solidarity & says 'We will look out for all shareholders'.

Effectively 'cashed' options now but not taking the cash now so become a creditor to be paid over next 3 years from Kalaba free cashflow ... or if ARCM get bought out they vest immediately at market price.
Very neatly done
ATB APR

@mcadder My take on what copper & gold are doing as posted on CCZ today at 09:05. From my charts I think gold will swing up to $1850 assuming current $1,724 resistance confirmed as support ... this is 61.8% Fib retracement which is why it is such a big deal for Gold.

My view is:
> Copper = On a tear but currently consolidating before next leg up. It could breakdown but very strong uptrend support at current $9,100 and also around $8,100 so not too concerned
> Gold = currently correcting and I believe just hit bottom and strong support at $1,680 before swings back upto $1,850 channel resistance high
> Silver = currently consolidating as no where left to go below $25 due to strong unbroken uptrend from May-20 otherwise breakout at $30 beckons
AIMHO & ATB APR

@JTD thanks for the multiple posts I find them useful and informative especially as they provide valuable context. The key transformative news for me will be some concrete updates on newly (re)acquired assets including confirmation of remediation plan and associated costs plus some forward looking information on when a restart is planned.
ATB APR

@Fulmer Nice to see @Eyeguy posting and that he is still around as I used to be an avid follower of his posts

@tom and @viable updated comment posted as requested

Update on 6-Mar-21 position
Nothing here has changed for me and I continue to HOLD despite being 20% down on my 0.30p entry which in hindsight was a little toppy HOWEVER the daily chart seems to show the bottom maybe in at 0.215p after a brutal 76% price brake down through uptrend support 0.37p in mid Jan-2021.

Looking forward & drilling is about to restart at the Big One where CCZ have indeed found a high grade shallow copper deposit ... the BIG question is will it be economic? CCZ are doing all the right things in my view with Big One namely:
(1) Infill drilling
(2) application for mining licence
(3) started modelling for JORC compliant resource estimate

IF the bottom is indeed in the daily chart indicates target of around 4.8p (projected from Nov-20 4.35p high) over the next 6-8 weeks which should coincide with expectation of further BO drill results.

This is AIM and CCZ is an Exploration Junior so very high risk but very high reward ... clearly where the SP goes from my target will be 100% driven on those Big One results !
Personally (as I have previously stated) my position is lighter than I was following my top up at ARC Minerals, but this is still a good hold for me from here.
ATB & DYOR APR

LOL @tom @gold5 isn't the only one long gold ... I am about 45% copper (ARCM & CCZ) 35% gold, silver, copper (Rincon, AAZ & GWMO) plus 20% GUN an InvestCo (oh it has Rincon & Empress Royalty in there somewhere).
My view is:
> Copper = On a tear but currently consolidating before next leg up. It could breakdown but very strong uptrend support at current $9,100 and also around $8,100 so not too concerned
> Gold = currently correcting and I believe just hit bottom and strong support at $1,680 before swings back upto $1,850 channel resistance high
> Silver = currently consolidating as no where left to go below $25 due to strong unbroken uptrend from May-20 otherwise breakout at $30 beckons
AIMHO & ATB APR

GGP is an interesting case study and in 'popular' memory PIs forget that the first suitor Newmont walked away in May-2017 after a 6m EA before Newcrest offered a JV in Mar-2019 based on processing from Telfer facility. GGP 12-bagged in the 6 months Mar-20 @2p to Sept-20 @25p before its more recent wild +50% gyrations upto 38p and back down to 23p over the last 6 months.

GGPs journey for reference:
> Mar-2018 GGP SP =0.55p Shares =3,000m & MCap=£16.5m ... 9 months after Newmont walked away
>>> Jun-2018 First drill results HAD01
>>> Nov-2018 'Famous' drill results HAD05 275m 5.75g/t GEO
> Mar-2019 GGP SP =1.71p Shares =3,218m & MCap=£55m ... NCM JV announced
>>> Jun-2019 NCM starts drilling at Havieron
> Mar-2020 GGP SP =2p Shares = 3,652m & MCap=£73m ... 12 months later and SP up 17%
>>> Apr-20 JV Stage 2 completes =$20m spent & earnt 40% Havieron
>>> Sept-20 Mining lease granted
>>> Nov-20 2 more JVs announced
>>> Dec-20 JV stage 3 completes =MRE announced & additional $25m spent & earnt 60% Havieron
> Mar-2021 GGP SP =22.45p Shares =3,901m & MCap=£876m ... 12 months later and SP up 1022%

I know ARCM is a copper explorer vs. GGPs Gold/Copper @Havieron, but this is what can be achieved with a decent JV with a Major that is keen to get on as NCM has been with over 8 rigs running in parallel to get to MRE in 2.5 years. Remember Havieron is VERY deep (400-1200m) and ARCMs Zambian licences are very shallow (25m-250m) so I would expect timeframes to be max 12-18m to MRE or even DFS with focused effort/resources applied.
ATB APR

@Shorn Yes exactly. Probably less than 10% of the licence area contains the 2x Tier 1 deposit areas probably containing 95%+ of the £value of ARCM so why not sell/JV the 10% and develop the further 90% as this may contain another Tier 1 or more likely a number of smaller satellite deposits that can be sold onto AAL later at a higher price once we have them up to JORC status.

This approach fits with NvS increasing shareholder value over time and not selling out stuff on the cheap because it is 'easy'.
ATB APR

I'm struggling to understand why ARCM SP matters in all this, surely what AAL would be buying is the assets? What matters is the asset value and the CAPEX/OPEX being spent by AAL paid for in %earned for money spent? Looking at it this way AAL have a number of options to acquire those assets and only ONE involves ARCM itself:
> outright purchase of ARCM ... would go to market and highest bidder so todays SP is academic, it is the asset that matters
> Partial purchase of ARCM by taking a stake for new cash ... ARCM is flush with cash so gains little except more dilution and partial loss of control
> Partial purchase on market ... won't be long before market twigs and SP goes up ... a lot
> outright purchase of Zambian assets ... would need to be agreed with others owners of Zaco/Zamsort licences and ARCM CLN settled. ARCM becomes a cash shell and onto next opportunity
> Outright purchase or JV at one or more 'projects' ... far more likely, cheaper & less risk for AAL plus less contentious for ARCM as subset of a licence area focused on a particular deposit. Other less developed/valuable deposits can then be developed and value-added retained for ARCM shareholders

If the route chosen is a JV then there are a multitude of options:
(1) Least cash cost to ARCM but cedes 50-70% share to AAL would cover CAPEX and OPEX to drill out project usually to DFS stage with an associated Maiden Resource Estimate so that the deposit is now recognised asset with resource in inferred / indicated / measured categories depending on levels of confidence associated with drilling to date.
(2) variations on above where ARCM pays varying % of CAPEX/OPEX so cedes lower% to AAL to DFS

My firm belief is that the Kalaba plant is key to ARCMs future as ARCM now has far more choices available that a substantive £20m+ FCF generated by the plant gives it in both negotiating and funding any deal. Do a deal on one project and do a much better deal on the second 18-36 months down the line once you have got it to JORC status yourself funded from Kalaba FCF, proceeds of deal #1, cash from bank (2 years exploration monies available remember!), CASA and/or Sturec cashback deals.
Awesome position to be in!
AIMHO & ATB APR

Thanks @Shorn I really like the Lassonde Curve 'Life of a Mine' https://www.visualcapitalist.com/visualizing-the-life-cycle-of-a-mineral-discovery/ is a particularly good explanation with a real life example Ivanhoe Mines.

Don't be fooled relatively lower grades can still be economic if they are shallow and amenable to open pit mining especially if the strip ratios are low and the intersects are consistent grade over long lengths.

The RNS states "All seven of the new drill holes intersected gold mineralisation of the expected range of thickness and grade. Gold bearing intersections being up to 26.7 meters in thickness." This means that any resource model they are building will have high levels of confidence as the grades and intersections are consistent as they move across the mineralised areas. Pasonfino have already confirmed that they are modelling a shallow open pit operation "The gold is hosted by a flat to undulating layer which outcrops along the western side of the deposit and dips gently southeast to a maximum of 120 m below surface within the conceptual pit."
ATB APR

Charts ... I believe and use them extensively for actively traded stocks as they provide really good guidance for in/out, inflection points and for placing (or avoiding) Stop-losses or indeed buy-limit prices. They cannot predict news or sentiment as both these drive markets but they can tell you an awful lot that goes on in between.

Trading patterns are also really important to understand as different patterns have different %chances of successfully completing on both the way up and way down. Trend change patterns are the most useful as good indicators of when to get into or out of a stock.

Lots of my trend lines and support/resistance lines I drew weeks ago but are still valid & in play today. Fibonacci extension/retracement levels are also fascinating and surprisingly useful.
AIMHO APR

As I said earlier in the week the 7.3p was the cup and handle pattern neckline confirmation price. Expect 9.6p soon by my prior calculations or take Zak Mir's 10p target if you prefer.

The large gap up through prior resistance at 4.1p is still there and is very unlikely to get filled now. This has been identified by Zak Mir as a multi-bagger 'marker' when he discussed this stock earlier in the year.
ATB APR

That's a breakout right there aided no doubt by Sadaat's £160k buy. Close above 7.3p today would be good
ATB APR

@shorn well that is the BIG question but we are much nearer the end of this process after 8 months of the AAL EA than we are the beginning that's for sure. My dilemma is how big to go. In Mar-2020 had 50% of my PF in ARCM and 50% in GGP ... well we know what happened with GGP so I used the proceeds when I sold out last Sept-20 to top up here and diversify my PF.

I'm just waiting for ARCM to do me proud and take my 10-bag tally up to 2! For the avoidance of doubt I now have everything crossed as ARCM accounts for a third of my PF!
ATB APR

You don't need to be a chartist to understand ARCM chart ... just look at the weekly chart and it will tell you everything you need to know as clear as day.
SP close above 7.3p is where it kicks off !
ATB APR

SP been tightly range bound with Open / Close being 6.7 to 7.0p for the last 4 trading days

Looks like the SP has gone into limbo as PIs have taken their positions & are holding breath while we all wait !
ATB APR

@staffnumber I stand corrected ... and good to know
ATB APR

@busytailed Page 17 explains this with a nice picture as a Brucey bonus https://www.valuewalk.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/Valuation_of_Metals_and_Mining_Companies.pdf
ATB APR