Member Info for aprogerson

@Tom Yes and still waiting for AAL transaction to complete almost 9 months waiting so far!

All 3 of my junior exploration plays are sat waiting for planned drilling and exploration programmes to start and all 3 SPs are 'struggling' ... so what this is what happens ! Nevada its damned cold and inhospitable whereas in Aussie its wet and/or damned hot and inhospitable. In both cases the exploration window is now 'opening' and activity will soon restart.

Sit on hands, remind yourself why you invested and wait !
ATB APR

Lots of PIs now positioned and sitting on their hands waiting !
ATB APR

People forget that the world was a very different place a year ago and a lot of Gold explorers were not fully funded so assets could be picked up relatively cheaply. That is NOT the case now and a lot of Juniors have now been doing the financing deals and progressing their assets so gold pulling back to $1720 makes little or no difference to them as they are not producing. It is the high AISC producers that have taken the hit NOT the explorers.

I'm actually of the view that CASA coming back to ARCM would be a good thing especially as it is now very likely that we could fund the development ourselves or JV with a specialist operator to build it out as Hummingbird did with Pasafino (TSX:VEIN)on their Dugbe project in Liberia. At 3Moz CASA is not a small deposit and with the correct financing and Management team could be operating within 3 years.

I'm firmly of the view that in 6-9 months we will be looking back and laughing at this 'waiting' period whilst we talk about Kalaba plant upgrades being completed & coming onstream with the associated £20m+ FCF.
No panicking here & definitely lots to look forward to !
I can however see lots of ducks in lots of strategically ordered rows
ATB APR

Just checked ASX:RCR price action overnight as it opened at A$0.248c spiked low to A$0.193c but closed at A$0.233c down 12%. Looks to me like someone placed an open market sell order on what was initially a very thin trading day that met a very cheeky low buy limit order from someone who now has a very big smile on their face.

Curiously yesterdays ASX volume of 624k vs. 220k average was unusually high so it looks like that price was heavily bought into despite the spike low. On that basis I think the bottom is most definitely in as RCR is clearly on lots of watchlists hoping for a good entry point ... especially as we come into April and the exploration news should start flowing from Laverton and then Hasties drill commencement towards the end of April.

Yesterday very brief A$0.193c low makes my A$0.266c average look lame now but considerably better than the A$0.495c paid just after the 21 Dec-2020 IPO. Rincon now has a MCap of A$12.8m or £7.1m with £3.3m stated cash @11-Mar-2021 and a 12-month exploration programme across its 3x projects focused (almost) exclusively at Hasties prospect just 12km from NCMs giant Telfer Copper/Gold facility.

RCR have stated that they intend to produce a Hasties MRE latest Q1 2022 ... personally I hope that they accelerate the Hasties work programme & bring it forward to Q4 2021.
ATB & DYOR APR

Take 2 with GWMO Copper Jorc details !
IMHO the best way of valuing explorers is looking at comparable companies in similar jurisdictions, circumstances, assets and/or resource type and seeing if there is a disparity in their MCap. I've included GWMO summary for comparison.

Great Western Mining (GWMO) - A junior explorer mainly focused on its multiple historic high-grade gold/silver prospects in Nevada using modern exploration techniques on old mine areas to discover new mineralisation. It has a fully funded maiden drill programme ready to go & is working to build a small scale production facility for historic mine tailings. GWMO has an existing JORC copper asset of 4.3Mt of 0.45% copper & GWMO has a MCap of £7m.

Castillo Copper (CCZ) - An Aussie explorer with big aspirations is currently halfway through drilling its fully funded maiden 'Big One' high-grade, shallow copper project at Mt Oxide was £60m and now dropped to £24m MCap due to disappointing drill results (so far & disappointing grades are 4% to 6% !!). Currently modelling up for first JORC compliant result from drill results to date. CCZ have a JORC copper resource of 3.2Mt @ 3.35% Cu for its historic Cangai mine.

I'd be interested to see what you guys turn up for comparisons. I have excluded Arc Minerals (ARCM) due to the potential major deal situation there that makes it not very comparable!
ATB APR

IMHO the best way of valuing explorers is looking at comparable companies in similar jurisdictions, circumstances, assets and/or resource type and seeing if there is a disparity in their MCap. I've included GWMO summary for comparison.

Great Western Mining (GWMO) - A junior explorer mainly focused on its multiple historic high-grade gold/silver prospects in Nevada using modern exploration techniques on old mine areas to discover new mineralisation. It has a fully funded maiden drill programme ready to go & is working to build a small scale production facility for historic mine tailings. GWMO has a MCap of £7m.

Castillo Copper (CCZ) - An Aussie explorer with big aspirations is currently halfway through drilling its fully funded maiden 'Big One' high-grade, shallow copper project at Mt Oxide was £60m and now dropped to £24m MCap due to disappointing drill results (so far & disappointing grades are 4% to 6% !!). Currently modelling up for first JORC compliant result from drill results to date. CCZ have a JORC copper resource of 3.2Mt @ 3.35% Cu for its historic Cangai mine.

I'd be interested to see what you guys turn up for comparisons. I have excluded Arc Minerals (ARCM) due to the potential major deal situation there that makes it not very comparable!
ATB APR

@hertstrader I would also be interested to see what would happen to the economics with the EXISTING JORC Copper resource given the $9k/ton copper price and upcoming copper super-cycle due to the increased demand and dearth of new projects replacing mined resources. If we just join up existing non-declared mineralisation then the JORC can also be upgraded improving things further.
ATB APR

@Techtonic There is a LOT of IFs in there, but theoretically GUN would triple as the Low6 investment would increase GUNs MCap by £16m. I am sure GUN would have chance to add to its position in Low6 at IPO, but what we do not know yet is %dilution at IPO and if there will be any further opportunity to invest and at what price.

I am 99.99% certain that there will be further dilution at IPO as Low6 will want more funding to continue its growth and that GUN will do very well out of its investment.
ATB & DYOR APR

I've just checked Companies House and Low6 Ltd. latest filing dated 17-March-2021 stated total shares of 567,158. So GUNs 6,667 shares plus a CLN of £65k at £30/share is 2,167 or 8,834 equivalent in total or 1.56%.

@Techtonic It's a big IF but IF Low6 attain Unicorn status on IPO then that modest £265k investment from GUN will be worth 62x £265k or £16.4m. HOWEVER, I expect Low6 to raise more funds at IPO diluting GUNs overall shareholding and gains unless PR ponies up some more funds at IPO.

I would hope that any further fundraising is sufficiently geared so that early investors are relatively protected so that new funds are raised at a higher SP locking in some %gain for GUN. I am also expecting a stock split as current SP is £30 per share and they will be IPOing on the ASX in Aus$.
ATB APR

@roley both GUN and Pires have made 2 investments in Low6s last 2 fund-raising rounds namely:
> GUN £265k total comprising 6,667 shares (£200k) and a £65k CLN = £265k investment
> PIRES £265k total comprising 6,667 shares (£200k) and a £35k CLN = £235k investment

Summary of Pre-IPO announcements & total Low6 funds raised I am aware of:
RNS @26-Feb-2021 Low6 raised £3.3m in CLNs (ref: Pires RNS for amount raised)
RNS @14-Dec-2020 Low6 raised £1.5m via share sale

Low6 Investment by GUN @£265k cost to date:
Data from last funding round and Companies House info (Techtonic @10-Mar) is:
Low6 shares = 544,381 @£30 each = £16.3m MCap implied as NOT quoted entity
GUN Low6 shares = 6,667 (£200k cost) +2,167 (using £65k CLN @£30/share) = 8,834 or 1.62% for £265k invested

'IF' as suggested Low6 were to become a Unicorn then they would need 62x MCap growth from here valuing GUNs investment at £16.2m on the same basis.

Low6 IPO on ASX in April-2021 ? .... Link to ASX new listing site @ https://www2.asx.com.au/listings/upcoming-floats-and-listings
ATB APR

@04Portia Like you I am also perplexed but also intrigued as to why these events have taken place, in this sequence and at this time.

This close to a potential deal I am assured they are NOT accidental and NvS has NOT lost his marbles. On that basis I see what has been happening as part of an overall strategy with 2 main aims (1) get a GOOD deal with AAL over the line and/or (2) have one or preferably more backups plans ... think Kalaba production, decent cash cushion in bank, alternative/backup assets to avoid becoming a cash-shell and pre-approved freedom to do more deals in support of (1) .
ATB APR

@JTD Appreciate the time and effort you are putting in to clarify things for us PIs
ATB APR

@lantier Thankyou for your (un)common sense observations.
My 2p worth is DYOR and if the reason you invested hasn't changed hold or add otherwise sell ... leave your emotions out of it they will just screw with your judgement and on AIM that is not good for your money or sanity!
ATB APR

Kopore Metals ASX:KMT is a £6.7m outfit so a deal for ARCM to acquire a 75% stake in just 2 of their licence areas for £1.2m is a really BIG deal for them especially when it then carries a 1% NSR (US$5m to purchase) plus an option for 25% at US$5m ... add it up and that comes to US11.66m when their MCap is US$12.26m.

IMHO SP Drop is massively overdone and suggests £1.8m raised has no value ... Wrong!
All good
ATB APR

@CM Very well made point and thanks for keeping us all honest as £1.8m raised is not all dilution.

Placing raised £1.8m of which £1.2m is an asset purchase so NOT dilution and balance of £600k could be argued as dilution as it is for general capital purposes and exploration. If we find at a later date that some was used to buy more Zamsort then that tiny amount of 'dilution' reduces further still.

Cracking RNS, asset purchase and confirmation of more exploration on our licences. Nice to see NvS is still top of his game
ATB APR

@alyhels Not sure if you noticed but from late autumn to early spring it is closed season so not much exploration gets done.

I posted ages ago my analysis of what the Dore bar may be given the tailings grade and the quantity processed ... not surprisingly if it was only a few grams and mostly silver. As @Lukeytukki points out until you have a lot of tailings processed you will not get a reliable average grade built up and one single processed sample (good or bad) will never be representative.
ATB APR

Placing now closed with increased figure of £1.8m raised for 27.7m new shares all duly issued @6.5p with NO warrants.
Someone is clearly very keen, doubtless we will know more soon.
ATB APR