Member Info for aprogerson

Conference replays
Go to https://www.australianenergyconference.com.au/ and scroll down to Rincon

Rincon Resources Limited (Rincon or the Company) is pleased to provide an opportunity for shareholders and investors to view a virtual presentation by the Executive Chairman, Geoff McNamara, who will present at the Australian Energy & Minerals Investor Conference at 3.00pm EST, Thursday, 18 March, 2021. The Company provides an updated Presentation (attached) and Mr McNamara will discuss the planned activities to progress the Company’s Laverton Gold Project, South Telfer and Kiwirrkurra Gold and Copper Projects in Western Australia.

Event: Australian Energy & Minerals Investor Conference
Presenting: Geoff McNamara, Executive Chairman
Time: Thursday, 18 March 2021, 3.00pm EST/1.00pm WST

New Deck @ https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/ann-rcr-to-present-at-australian-energy-minerals-conference.5961034/
Paydirt TV interview @8-Jan-2021 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o-KnsEqZZjk

In Summary:
> New licence map showing other tenements and holders in more detail
> New timeline for Hasties
? Photo-Geology Mapping & Targeting Completed
? 18 Targets Identified with 7 High Priority Targets
? Heritage Surveys - April 2021
? Ground Geophysics (IP) - May 2021
? Maiden RC Drill Program - May 2021

My Observations:
Schedule = Looks like they are now running 6 weeks behind their initial schedule issued in the IPO with no mention of the Hasties MRE in 2021 and some follow-on drilling now at end Q1 2022
Cash = stated as A$6m or £3.3m so A$800k spend since IPO
GUN shareholding = stated as 16.89% in reality is 17.34% @RNS 25-Jan-2021

IMHO the delay is a bit disappointing but I waited 18 months for the IPO so I can wait a bit more I guess. The delay and price drop has allowed me to load up at average A$0.266c just above IPO price so I should not complain ! Hopefully once they get on the ground they can accelerate and recover some time. I suspect they will be planning to build the JORC model Q4/Q1 2022 and then infill/update drill to tweak the model at end Q1 2022 drilling for the MRE. Timing confirmed by CEO on 8-Jan-2021 Paydirt TV interview. I suspect Hasties was just too darned hot to start much sooner.
ATB APR

@gold5 Well we all know the Russians have 'form' using proxies to further their goals be they military (Ukraine) or business (Oligarchs). Interesting move with last weeks announcement that Trans-Siberian Gold (AIM:TSG) is to be bought out by another Russian entity. I get the strong sense that Russia wants access to more gold producing resources to back the Rouble and the loss of a large operating mine that has been returned to Azeri control must be a huge setback.

IMHO I suspect we haven't heard the last of their attempts to exert some control over what was until recently an operating mine, but I also expect the Azeri Government to resist any overtures unless they are on a reasonable economic basis & ensure AAZ can contract accordingly ... governmental 'air cover' & other means of support will doubtless be provided if necessary so that AAZ can operate their government granted licences without undue hinderance or interference from foreign powers.

Bottom line is AAZ and the Azeri government interests are aligned as both want built mines secured, maintained & back online ASAP as: Revenue for AAZ and jobs and tax revenue for the Azeri Government with associated 'success' & 'back to normal' Azeri newsflow.
ATB APR

@McAdder They say "The best place to find a new mine is next to an existing one". We really need to add something like "Using modern remote sensing technology on old mines to direct new drilling significantly increases chances of finding new mineralisation" as the by-word not only for existing producing mines but also for newer junior explorers the world over.

These new technologies were not available when GWMOs historic mines closed 60-100 years ago as the easily discoverable mineralisation was worked out ... this has now changed. I do not think it is in dispute that there is more mineralisation on GWMOs licence areas the REAL issue is exactly where, how much and at what grade so we can work out if it is economic to recover. The good news is from historic records we know both the locations and tonnages of ore recovered and how much metal was recovered so we know its average grade PLUS we now know through use of modern remote sensing technologies in 2021 where we should now be drilling to have the best chance of finding more mineralisation.

A few material observations that don't seemed to get mentioned:
(1) the REAL grade of future ore is likely to be the historic grade plus the tailings grade. Modern & cost effective gravity separation plus heap leach technologies can extract more of the contained metals than historically possible
(2) OMCO mine extension is actually the 'feeder' system for the historic workings so likely to be higher grade
(3) Small scale tailings production facility can also be used to process new ore if we decide to mine
(4) Olympic also contains historic tailings that will become available for processing when the Olympic project option fee of $130k has been paid to fully acquire the licence
(5) some completed M2 copper drilling results were NOT included in the current JORC resource as they were too small and/or too far away from the main inferred ore body. A follow-on programme of infill drilling between these areas 'should' enable the current JORC resource to be upgraded in size, grade and/or confidence levels with more closely spaced drill data
(6) GWMO has 4 main Copper targets at M1, M2, M4 and M8 ... only M2 has a JORC compliant resource (so far)

Junior Explorers are high-risk, high-reward beasts so having a well funded, capable management team, good licence areas, sound business strategy & ability to deliver on their promises is absolutely key. They even listened to our moans to improve their corporate comms !

So far GWMO have demonstrated all of the above and in my view have 2 things left to demonstrate by end Q4 2021, either will force a rerate of the current £8.1m MCap ... one gently and the other violently with no prizes for guessing:
(A) commission small scale plant & begin continuous tailings processing to generate steady gold/silver revenue stream
(B) prove up at least ONE drill target preferably the OMCO mine extension
AIMHO & DYOR APR

Welcome @MrC AIM algorithms look at each transaction (remember to buy there must be a seller and vica versa) and marks it as a Buy if it is above the mid-price and a sell if it below. so to find out if it was really a buy or a sell can be tricky sometimes especially when MMs play with the price spread to make buys look like sells.
If you want 100% transparent then AIM is not for you !
ATB APR

@techtonic Interesting news, let's hope RB continues to surprise to the upside.
ATB APR

@bead For recent examples of JVs that have gone well for the miner and just how differently they can be structured take a look at Orosor Mining (OMI), Hummingbird (HUM) and Pasofino Gold (Vein) and Greatland Gold (GGP). GGP have done further JVs with NCM to develop other licence areas and are a good example of what can be achieved when the Major wants to move quickly. OMI experiences have been mixed with slow progress and poor value-add for the SP as the Major was not in a hurry and it was only when their JV was split and First Majestic came on board that their SP shot up as exploration pace increased.

The key thing to remember is in a JV the investing Major earns a %share in the asset for investment of time, cash and expertise that the Junior licence holder does not have. It is a trade where the Junior usually gets to retain 20%-35% of the asset or in the case of HUM it did a stonking JV with Pasofino and will retain 51% controlling interest in Dugbe gold project. Usually the incoming Major pays all OPEX and CAPEX up to DFS or even as far as 'ready to mine' stage on teh expectation that the Major will also become the Operator going forward.

GGP is a very interesting case where NCM has even provided GGP with a $50m loan facility so that GGP can pay its share of JV costs at reasonable rates, doubtless to be paid back from future earnings which NCM know are safe!

All to play for and I still think a JV is more likely than an equity purchase as ARCM has no revenue to fund further exploration so having a Major owning a big chunk of your shares and probably a Director on your BoD (in my view) achieves very little. IF it is to be a JV then the key will be the terms agreed and residual %share to ARCM after DFS PLUS the speed at which the JV stages will be set so that some pace is injected into the Earn-In stages to be completed.

Do not underestimate just how important to ARCM the ability to generate its own FCF from its own production facility and assets will be to retaining its independence and being able to drive a hard bargain for at least one of its Tier 1 assets. I also think that ARCM will be pushing on an 'open door' with AAL in terms of wanting any JV to be 'at pace' given the forecast copper demand.
AIMHO APR

FACT = Central banks desperately need more inflation to reduce nominal value of multi-trillion debts with more debt very likely
FACT = Central banks are pushing interest rates and hence bond yields as low as they can to finance these debts
FACT = FED tolerance for 10-year US Treasury note is now under 1.5% before they become effectively insolvent ... yield control measures (QE, MMT et al) will resume shortly
FACT = REAL interest rates (NOMINAL minus inflation) are negative and direction of travel is lower still
FACT = Commodities and PGMs thrive when REAL interest rates drop ... miners do even better
FACT = Commodities do well at lower dollar value
FACT = Mining destroys reserves as ore is consumed. Replacement resource investment since 2013/4 has been low or non-existent due to low commodity prices and investment only really started picking up in last 12-18 months
FACT = new mines take YEARS to find, finance, drill, permit, build, commission and put into operation. Copper mines particularly so as they tend to be very capital intensive and 8-10 years+ is not unusual from discovery

My observation is that Copper has put in a multi-year consolidation pattern from 2008/9 to today which is in the process of braking out not breaking down. Given the massive stimulus and move to EVs and green technologies the world will need much more copper now which will continue to drive copper price higher and not lower. Also given peoples belief that more inflation is coming and fiat currency is being printed into oblivion then REAL assets will do well.
ATB APR

Doubtless more canny investors will have already set there buy limits at 7.4p in anticipation of a cheeky bargain at such an obvious price point. IF that is the case I would expect price to bounce back hard as buy limits mop up all the bedwetters selling out early.

People may not like charts or dismiss them out of hand, but they are very, very useful when positioning your buy/sell limits or indeed stop losses below key support or above key resistance points if you feel the need. Not understanding why you bought or not doing sufficient research can make PIs jittery when short term price action swings about ... this is AIM and this is what happens !
ATB APR

Price moving up through major resistance @7.3p, establishing a new higher high @8.8p and then falling to retest what was resistance @7.3p and doubtless bouncing to the upside is a GOOD and VERY VERY normal thing as it will allow price to consolidate before move up through my 'cup and handle' short term target of 9.6p.
Not sure what the fuss is ... nothing to see here
ATB APR

Bottom now in at 2.15p with a steady rise to resistance:
> Retracement 61.8% Fib @2.68p (where we are say now)
> Retracement 50% Fib @3.0p
Outlook: the 20 day MA is now neutral and if SP breaks 2.68p I 'd expect that to be tested to the downside to confirm as support. Price Action is currently weak but positive and with a restart of drilling expected soon I expect 3p to be taken shortly.
ATB APR

@kewben I had to recheck back to the company presentation
. M2 Copper Project
• Indicated and Inferred Mineral Resource of 4.3 million tonnes at 0.44% Cu, for 19,000 tonnes of Cu metal
• Deep copper target defined based on IP/resistivity anomaly within the host diorite
2. M4 Copper Project
• 3 diamond holes drilled in 2018
• Best intercept of 43.0m @ 0.24% Cu, within a large quartz-copper-carbonate breccia vein
• 6 further holes permitted to test the extent of the breccia vein and a >4km strike-length buried IP anomaly

M4 PROSPECT @RNS 25-Feb-2021
At the M4 prospect, a large copper-rich breccia vein has already been discovered and a near surface intercept of this vein is the initial drill target. Although this is both a gold and copper target, the objective of drilling at M4 will be to appraise the copper potential at minimal cost with a view to attracting a larger industry partner to join the Company in exploitation of its copper potential. To avoid road building, the two-man portable coring rig will be used to drill this hole and possible follow-up holes.

Bottom line is JORC resource was in M2 and moonshot Sharkstooth drilling that broke GWMO was in M4. From everything I read going back to 2017/18 RNSs GWMO was trying to link up M2 and M4 resources and had indeed done some drilling between the 2 areas, but not enough to get the levels of confidence up to declare a bigger JORD resource. I strongly suspect GWMO strategy is to increase their EXISTING JORC resource by infill drilling between existing drill holes currently outside the current JORC to connect up more known resources to at least the inferred category.
I may have totally misunderstood but that makes the most sense with what limited information we have and they have added in the new RNS.
ATB APR

@JTD Agreed & you won't be surprised when I mention the daily chart has just broken out from the downtrend channel from 25-Jan-21 high @182.5p after hitting bottom @129p prior uptrend support. This was a brutal 90%+ retrace from when licence repatriation news landed and says the market discounted this happening any time soon. Price is now recovering and downtrend resistance broke @141p (prior high from 16-Nov-20) on 11-Mar and retested it 13-Mar-21 confirming it as support.

Simply put bottom at 128p looks in with decent support tested and reconfirmed at 141p
AIMHO & ATB APR

GMWO MCap is £7.8m and is more than fully funded for their current accelerated 2021 Exploration programme due to warrants being cashed in et al. Brian Hall has stated that GWMO may accelerate both exploration and small scale production facility further plus we know that they have ADDED M2 copper exploration into the 2021 programme since ditching it officially Nov-2019 strategic shift with last actual M2/M4 drilling in Oct-2018 when copper was less than $6k/t.

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/944003/great-western-mining-present-2021-drilling-plans-as-an--exploration-company-looking-for-the-big-one--944003.html (thanks Troajan)

My current price target is 0.7p or MCap £23.4m by latest end Jul-2021 based on recent RNSs and BH Pro/active interview & assumes:
> no dilution via new Placing as fully cashed up into 2022
> Current 2021 accelerated exploration programme and new copper drilling announced
> Drilling commence by end Apr-21 with all results back by end Jul-21
> good progress demonstrated on small scale production facility & contracts target start Q3/4 2021
> Confirmation of small scale production economics via gravity separation ONLY (heap leach info a bonus)
> Further MJ tailing material extracted for gravity only processing from Q4 onwards

4 reasons WHY I think this year is very different?
(1) Small scale tailings production (gold/silver via gravity separation only)
> could generate £0.5m to £1.5m pa free cashflow from tailings from Q4 2021 onwards
> Any at surface gold/silver discovered in 2021 drilling could just be mined and used to feed production facility = £Bonus

(2) OMCO vein extension
> if discovered then SP of 0.7p will be the start as historic grades are stunning
> Extension is actually the feeder system so even higher grades to be expected
> any ore could easily be fed into own production facility and secondary heap leached/CIL processed later

(3) M2 copper
> drilling may surprise to the upside , just knowing that current Copper JORC could be extended and/or linked to M4 would be transformational as deposit would scale up considerably & become economic especially at todays Cu prices

(4) MJ & RH Drilling
> we know there were historic mines in these areas all we need is for ONE set of drills to prove up a new vein
> We also know that the historic mine deposits are in fact connected (quelle surprise) by using modern imaging and geophysics could identify a whole new deposit especially as RH has not been drilled or mined previously.

An exciting year ahead for GWMO
AIMHO APR

Hi @viable I agree with your observations about grades but this is the case the world over with (most) of the 'easy' large, high grade deposits spoken for or mined out. Increasing copper consumption will mean that higher prices will be needed as we are already seeing and will make once marginal mines profitable and richly rewarding those positioned early.

Looking at the long term copper weekly chart from 2008/09 to date shows a huge multi-year bullish cup and handle formation in the process of completing which will drive copper price strongly up from here. The pattern low is $4,400 up to the neckline at $9,600 high which if the pattern completes implies a $5,200 uplift or $14,800 price target over the next 2-3 years.

On that basis I'm looking to be positioned in well run explorers with good grades, continuity, near-surface and scale .. if CCZ hit anything at depth at the Big One that is a bonus and if Arya comes off that will be the better still. IF they can get to small scale production at Big One in the next 18-24 months using nearby contract processing and generate some decent free cashflow to fund building this out without dilution then I will be very happy.
ATB APR

@ken I'm hoping that at the very least that Rincon at least 'do' after they have set out their stall in massive detail in their IPO Prospectus. I haven't seen the team in action on Tesoro but from what little I've picked up they come across as a very competent team. Rincon MCap on ASX is now £6.5m of which £3.8m is cash raised from the IPO so valuing everything else at £2.7m ... screaming buy territory considering that they are now funded for at least 12 months.

The map of the 540km^2 licences south of Telfer and GGPs Haverion licence area tell me all I need to know and then when I read that NCM drilled 22km and Rincon have all the historical data which they are collating and digitising to inform their drilling programme then I take notice ! https://www.rinconresources.com.au/projects/sthtelfer/

I have a good position here indirectly with GUN in my SIPP and a big chunk with Rincon directly on the ASX in my ISA so this should be a very interesting journey leading up to Hasties MRE planned for Dec-2021.
ATB & DYOR ... I know I have
APR

Lol, note to self do NOT read results from one company and watch a video from another at the same time ... please ignore this post !
Apologies APR

Key takeaway is cash position at 31-Dec-2020 of US$3.11m or £2.3m and a £7.6m MCap or another way of looking at it GWMOs Enterprise value is £5.3m plus £2.3m cash.

Watching the Pro-active video Brian Hall also indicated that drilling will start a little later in April and we should be getting results back over a 3 month period. He also indicated that there will be additional drilling as they clearly have the cash funds to accelerate exploration drilling further.
All good
ATB APR

Rincon had a rough day putting in a new A$22.5c inter-day low overnight and closed at A$24.0c just on the 20 day MA. This now looks like the bottom given exploration programme is about the kick-off properly and some kind of newsflow should start.

Admittedly not what I was expecting from the seasoned team that 10-bagged at Tesoro last year, but Rincon are fully cashed up for 2 years and have an MRE to produce for Dec-2021 so have a lot to do in a single season across 3 projects with main focus at Hasties project area near NCMs Telfer in now famous Patterson region.
ATB APR

RNS just oozes confidence and indicates that we won't have long to wait