Member Info for aprogerson

@SeisNav If I had 20-20 hindsight I would not be on this BB I'd be sunning myself on my own private beach.
ATB APR

@Shorn From what I've seen of NvS so far there are no accidents and everything is being done for a very good reason ... we might just not see or appreciate it just yet. Most of the necessary 'threads' required for a deal to play through and/or downside insurance are now in place and have been declared, just time to grab a beer, relax and watch it unfold methinks !

I'm sitting with 35% of my PF here which is rich enough for me at this stage. I just wish my other copper play CCZ was doing as well as its 28% down :-((
ATB APR

@Wayne You're not kidding at least 5 years for me and longer for others here !

@shorn and @CleverThoughts If you like charts check the ARCM daily charts and Zak Mirs (Trading Cafe) comments on ARCM chart including the importance of the gap up through resistance at 4.2p (still unfilled) and the significance of a 'cup & handle' pattern which looks as if it will complete shortly when the SP goes through 7.3p and why I think the SP will go to 9.6p and Zak is targeting 10p.
AIMHO APR

@SeisNav Fab thanks ... I really ought to make a note of it myself !

@Cleverthoughts Please read the RNSs as there is a huge amount of material in there. Also see some of my summarised pointers below and hopefully some of the regular posters with dig out the links for you as per my request. Otherwise sorry you will need to dig through posting history over the last 2-3 months.
ATB APR

@Shorn Also check the RNSs relating to the sale of both Sturec to MetalTech and the CASA / Ayanka gold mine as both deals have a kickback mechanism in ARCM favour on further JORC upgrades to the Sturec resource over 1.5Moz and a Net Smelter Royalty in CASA case so we retain a right to payment if it is resold ... which we understand is also happening at the moment. Both events would also significantly improve ARCMs cash position which we now know covers us for a further 2 years exploration and OPEX regardless of any additional funding.

This is an inordinately good position to be in for a Junior Explorer and is no accident, but the direct result of a long-game now playing out driven by the BoDs strategy over the last 2 years or so.
AIMHO APR

@04portia No problem just trying to keep us all honest ! This is a fantastic BB with lots of enthusiasm and fab content.

Could someone please repost the links to:
(A) the chappy on Twitter with material on ARCM soil sampling with the Copper / Scandium ratio material, overlays and associated links ?
(B) David Woods lecture material and his Zambian 'missing copper' thesis?

@Shorn That is my experience also with these kind of processes. From a geology perspective AAL have had David Wood involved who has significant experience with FQM Sentinel mine and has worked across this whole area in Zambia looking for his 'missing copper' his geological models say are missing from Sentinel. NvS has declared ARCM has multiple Tier 1 copper deposits both verbally and in the ARCM Co presentations and yet we have not done enough drilling to prove it up sufficiently to get a JORC compliant resource ... there has been lots of conjecture on this BB as to why he has made such a bold claim.

Some useful background materials:
(1) Regional map showing relative proximity of FQMs Enterprise Trident / Sentinel mines to ARCM licences https://www.zamareminerals.com/s/34/ntambu-licence
(2) How to value a miner and info on JORC resources (focus pages 15, 16 & 17) https://www.valuewalk.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/Valuation_of_Metals_and_Mining_Companies.pdf
(3) Check David Woods and his Copper / Scandium ratio methodology for locating copper deposits in Zambia linked to his analysis of ARCM licence soil sample results which many on the BB believe might be behind NvS's extraordinary multiple Tier 1 claims

We are no over 8 months into the EA between ARCM & AAL (from Jul-20) & we understand that DW has been involved with helping ARCM and their drilling targeting last year but can't be 100% sure. I and many others believe we are now in the end-game which will result in walk-away, JV on one or more projects and/or full partial buyout. We know AAL are flush with cash and they are looking to extend their footprint in Zambia.

We also know that NvS has stated he is looking for a 10 or 20-bagger in terms of value creation for shareholders, but is also making sure the downside is covered in case AAL walkaway with the Kalaba project Scoping Study so that ARCM can become a producer to fund future exploration without dilution by generating substantial FCF in 12-18m time (FCF of £21m+ by my calculation using $8,500 Cu vs $6,000 stated in study)

There is lots of good material on this BB but sorry you will need to trawl through a lot of posts over the last 6-8 weeks. Hopefully the above will get you started
AIMHO & DYOR APR

@04portia In the nicest possible way you should not be purporting to give financial advice. Please check LSE terms.

Please check other posters and be clear what is a quote "XXX" and what is in your opinion. Please share what you have learnt and/or uncovered in your research to help others make their own mind up.
ATB & clearly AIMHO APR

My observation is that despite CCZ doing all the right things with good newsflow and good drilling results at the Big One the market just doesn't seem to be giving them the credit for where they are let alone underlying copper price action or indeed good grades near surface.

For CCZ SP to perform drilling results and/or declared resources will be the trigger. From what I can see PS must be really frustrated by SP performance to date and seems to be driving this by sheer force of will which is commendable but I think the market can see that and is punishing the SP for it.

The last RNS was very good with the bold move to declare a JORC compliant resource at BO which is now underway and I think a response to the markets 'lack of trust' in what CCZ has said so far which I think is unwarranted. Also move to 'declare' intent to pursue local toll processing and move to produce from Big One should have moved the SP or at least 'steady the ship' but curiously had the opposite effect which suggests the market does not believe CCZ BoD.

Near-term recovery triggers = drilling proves resource continuity +better grades + decent JORC MRE

I now hold ~10% of my PF here and will look to add when sentiment recovers, if I 'miss the boat' that's on me but it is still a good £chunk so I'm happy with that as CCZ is a great opportunity.
AIMHO & GLA APR

@BP Such is investing in the mining sector ! Big swings and big roundabouts. All you can do is hope for a reasonable/good entry point and trust in your research and the reasons why you invested in the first place. I look for good solid:
> management team & strategy = Absolutely & wish I'd found AAZ much sooner!
> organic growth prospects = more than they can shake 2 sticks at with existing licence areas
> assets/resources/operations = top marks on all, so good others are approaching AAZ for help (Conroy)
> cash and cashflow = yes to both
> share structure = yes, and no one can seem to remember when they diluted shareholders last for cash
> BoD governance = surprisingly good given location
> country risk = was not brilliant but improved massively & top flight direct government support
> Transformational triggers = 3x licence areas coming back to AAZ with 'clocks' reset = mouth watering potential

Shame about the recent SP performance ... but I can't blame AAZ for POG weakness. The timing is 100% on me.
ATB APR

I'm beginning to wish I'd moved all my position in CCZ here rather than just half of it as CCZ is down 28% and ARCM is up 45%.
Hindsight is a wonderful thing don't you think?
GLA APR

@tom Don't believe everything that the MMs try to convince you of as the Price went up over 10% speaks volumes for me!

Looks like ARCM daily chart completing its cup and handle chart pattern with expected bounce after bull flag (handle). Expect to see close above 7.3p as confirmation with target 9.6p after confirmation.

Drop from 7.3p to 5p = target rise from Confirmation level of 7.3p hence 9.6p target. For those interested in details:
https://www.pinterest.co.uk/pin/833095631055233745/
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/chart-patterns-technical-analysts-used-by-buy-stocks-analysis-market-2020-5-1029263411
AIMHO APR

Personally consolidation is 'no news' item for me as it is really administrative so no change in PI value as no change in MCap. Only caveat is if the company is dodgy and PIs nervous then a consolidation may make some sell.
So to be 100% clear If it were to happen at GWMO it is no news for me!
AIMHO APR

Link to pre-admission document = https://aquis-public-files.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/aqse/pdfs/Admissions/Proforma%2BApplication%2BAnnoucement+Rogue+Baron.pdfb
> No new shares or cash raise
> IPO date = 12-Mar-2021
> Total shares at IPO = 86,185,934 Ordinary Shares

POST ADMISSION
Ryan Dolder 9,353,685 10.85%
Gunsynd plc 24,543,563 28.48%
Janon Costley 5,411,209 6.28%

I expected more than a 2 page document without a cash raise. Guess we need to wait and see
AIMHO APR

Zip on Acquis .... anyone found info on IPO prospectus, surely they are not going to 'just' list without a prospectus and/or cash raise to fund growth?
APR

@roley, Exactly what I was looking for:
> PLacing to raise cash by issuing new shares?
> Totals hares at IPO?
> GUN share% at IPO not pre-IPO as per RNS
> link to prospectus ?
Is it just me or is this RNS very light on detail other than RB will IPO on 12-Mar-2021?
ATB APR