Member Info for aprogerson

@lukey Hard to judge BH style with drilling news as last time GWMO did any drilling back in Oct-2018 BH was a non-Exec so did not call the shots. Typically juniors drill, report on visual mineralisation indication, send samples off to lab and report assay results in tranches often aiming for some sort of newsflow every 2-3 weeks.

It will be interesting to see how BH wants to play this given the 11x RC drill programme announced RNS 16-Apr-21 at Olympic licence area:
> Olympic Trafalgar Hill = 6x holes ... already underway
> Olympic West Ridge = 2x holes
> East OMCO fault = 3x holes in new licence area

PDF map @ http://www.greatwesternmining.com/home
I suspect we will get at least one RNS per Olympic drill site depending on timings et al ... then drill rig moves to RH group for next stage of drill programme. We already know planned works run into Jul-2021.
ATB APR

Steady 250k / £17.25k block buying continues into this morning.
I continue to sit on my hands & await news
ATB APR

@Techtonic Nice one ... you beat me!
ATB APR

@alyhels I think that is the MMs spread as Ask is 0.25p and bid dropped to 0.24p, no change from any other day or any other AIM share. Best wait for market close before declaring 'The End is Nigh' !

Then again you maybe right, but seems very unlikely
ATB APR

@MT Prior asset sales did not require shareholder approval so no reason that this would if that is the 'transaction' being discussed. A full takeover I'm 99% certain would require shareholder approval, but not sure AAL would want that.
ATB APR

@Ella point well made and the catalytic effect of all this work & Additional knowledge/insight should not be under-estimated
ATB APR

@Tom and Fulmar29 We all play the %chance game with Junior Explorers on AIM and yes there is a chance that AAL could walk away or NvS tells them to go away, but after 10 months of work both parties have invested a lot of time and energy to to make a deal work for both parties.

We also know that ARCM has a multi-pronged strategy comprising:
> Plan A = a prospective outline deal with AAL tabled, tested, checked & tested some more. Link to Plan B perhaps?
> Plan B = use recent placing funds to continue Zambian exploration and test mineralisation at depth
> Plan C = ARCM produce from own Kalaba plant & ore to generate £21m+ FCF per annum in 18-24m timescale
> Plan D = option on new Alvis Kalahari Copper licences, in case of full buyout to avoid cash-shell status
... and in back pocket just in case
> Plan Z = reuse deal materials & Plan B updates for next potential suitor for Zaco/Zamsort licences/projects

All of the above is now in the public domain so AAL know that any potential suitors ALSO know this; my interpretation is that this puts ARCM in a position of strength particularly as short term cash is NOT an issue for next 18-24m and revenue stream kicks in after that.

In summary NvS has really played an excellent game and a deal with AAL seems highly likely, however if a deal cannot be agreed ARCM are well funded to ride the short term market wobbles and move on to the next potential buyer whilst it continues to drill test targets and improve mineralisation confidence whilst bringing forward Kalaba production & revenue stream.
Still chilled as ARCM well positioned to go-it-alone, but will 'go faster' with a good deal
ATB APR

@techtonic, yes ASX opens around 23:00 UK, but might be 00:00 given BST. I've found HotCopper quite useful for prices (albeit delayed), but must admit II Buy Limit orders have worked a treat as RCR price does travel a lot on relatively low volumes so worth a cheeky low ball order if you are in no hurry to get your order filled. They also do partially filled orders sometimes if price rises through your limit order so you are not left empty handed as market close. II is quite happy you holding and trading in GBP and will convert for you so 'no worries mate'. and only accepts valid trades (PX * Qty)

On my weekly chart
Last week traded 23.2c to 27.7c albeit open and close was tighter at 26.5c down to 25.5
Prior week traded 23.7c to 29.8c albeit open and close was tighter at 28.8c down to 27.5
Enjoy, you may be pleasantly surprised with a cheeky buy limit as you can see lots of Aussies are obviously placing their buys and sells at market prices hence the very large range.
My average is $0,266c mid Jan-21 @0.34c to early Mar-21 @0.24c, so you should still be able to get that or better as volumes are again quite thin with 300/400k in Feb, 400/600k in Mar and back down to 200k over last 9 trading days. ASX RCR has lots of useful stats that may help.
Good luck & ATB APR

@KeepCalm keep calm & GUN will doubtless carry on
ATB APR

@techtonic Absolutely ... good isn't it?

Gold, Silver, copper and battery metals look to be building up a head of steam again with Gold breaking out over the last 2 trading days after putting in a solid double bottom. VanEk Gold Vectors (Majors) has already broken out from 6 month correction ... we just need to wait and see if it holds. Silver is an absolutely amazing opportunity if the big bullion banks shorts are forced to unwind and physical metal is becoming a really rare commodity ... try ANY mint (don't bother with Perth Mint as they don't seem to have any) and look what is for sale and what premium you need to pay vs. 'spot' price if you can get it that is!
Absolutely AIMHO APR

@Dakokuten Welcome to GUN, you'll find some really good informative posters on the BB and some strong Institutional investors with Chris Akers also a large holder.

Simply to hit 10p with 409m shares we need to grow to MCap £41m from todays £9m MCap. As GUN is an InvestCo that £32m necessary growth should come through a combination of organic growth from existing and future investments. However as GUN holds a variety of different sized stakes the largest contributions may (or may not) come from our largest holdings.

For example GUN holds 17.8% of Rincon with MCap of £5.4m my near term target is circa £24m by Q3 2021 giving £18.6m growth @17.8% or £3.3m to GUN. As the drilling programme unfolds this growth should continue as confidence in Hasties mineralisation grows leading up to the Q1 2022 where JORC 1Moz+ is not unreasonable given historic drilling and Gold/Copper grades found.

Low6 could be the REAL surprise as the appetite for high-growth, high tech scalable stocks is enormous and GUNs relatively modest £265k (Pires £235k) could be worth considerably more but highly dependent on IPO model & issue price adopted.
AIMHO & DYOR APR

@Techtonic LOL, no pressure then. RNS Operational Summary is a fantastic read and just reinforces why I invested here.

Headlines for me are REALLY simple at this point MCap = £9m & NAV = £4.9m with Cash = £1m or 'dry powder' for opportune investments which the BoD have a very canny knack for picking.

Transformational Opportunities
> Low6 IPO in H1 2021 on £265k invested expecting minimum 4x uplift & probably much more. Will be interesting to see what pre-IPO terms for further investments are made available. I am not expecting any as any new shares are very likely to be heavily oversubscribed as Low6 is very heavily growth orientated and monetisation will doubtless follow

> Rincon now rolling out maiden drill programme after completion of all heritage clearances across Laverton & Hasties prospects. New CEO appointed with 2m (2%) share options vesting if JORC MRE in excess of 1 Moz is concluded neatly aligns CEO interests to ours. Hasties MRE now expected Q1 2022 latest. Rincon sit on over 50km of strike from NCM Telfer facility in the Patterson, so I am expecting CEOs shares to vest ... the question is one of timing !

> Rogue Baron as good as their word on promoting strong organic growth. Bonus US OTC listing now in the pipeline and sales growth is multiples of 2019 and 2020 figures after recent record new stocks sold out in weeks. GUN hold 25% and SP shown 60% growth since recent IPO. I suspect RG is only just getting REAL traction in the US so now have high growth expectations.

> Empress Royalty and Eagle Mountain are both excellent investments in teh Gold/copper space and have both already grown strongly. Given recent strong bounce in Gold and what looks like Coppers pause before its next leg up, both should continue to do well.

> Pacific Nickel and Kalasori should both do well given Nickel is a prime battery metal, but this is early days in their progression from explorers to possible producers.

As you all know my main reason for being invested in GUN is RINCON and the rest for diversification, but I must say GUNs performance has been outstanding and I see no reason why this should not grow further. I continue to happily hold.
AIMHO APR

@sanboy Yes last drilling focussed on Copper prospect at Sharkstooth (M4) and this time we have multiple gold/silver targets and return to copper prospects at M2 next to M4.
Should be a very interesting few months.
ATB APR

We all know POG has been in correction mode since last August high, but Gold has now put in a convincing double-bottom @$1,677 on 8-March and 30-March. Price has since moved up through strong prior support @1,703 and $1,724 with trading then constrained between 20DMA and 50DMA since early April. POG has today popped up through the 50DMA at $1,742 to close at $1,765 major resistance from Nov-2020.

Next targets: 100DMA now sits at $1,800 with downtrend channel top sat at around $1,880 before we see a breakout proper

Incidentally the VanEck Goldminers ETF for Majors has just convincingly broken its downtrend channel top today popping from 3444 to 3595 through resistance at 3455. The Junior Goldminers ETF is a way behind, but hit downtrend channel bottom at 4323 just 3 days ago closing at 4995 today with channel top resistance to come at around 5340.

Not wishing to hex a possible POG recovery, but things look like they have not only turned but are now bouncing. Whether this is the start of the end for the now 6-month correction in Gold though is anyone's guess.
AIMHO APR

We all know POG has been in correction mode since last August high, but Gold has now put in a convincing double-bottom @$1,677 on 8-March and 30-March. Price has since moved up through strong prior support @1,703 and $1,724 with trading then constrained between 20DMA and 50DMA since early April. POG has today popped up through the 50DMA at $1,742 to close at $1,765 major resistance from Nov-2020.

Next targets: 100DMA now sits at $1,800 with downtrend channel top sat at around $1,880 before we see a breakout proper

Incidentally the VanEck Goldminers ETF for Majors has just convincingly broken its downtrend channel top today popping from 3444 to 3595 through resistance at 3455. The Junior Goldminers ETF is a way behind, but hit downtrend channel bottom at 4323 just 3 days ago closing at 4995 today with channel top resistance to come at around 5340.

Not wishing to hex a possible POG recovery, but things look like they have not only turned but are now bouncing. Whether this is the start of the end for the now 6-month correction in Gold though is anyone's guess.
AIMHO APR

Oh contraire @PommeFrite looking at the weekly chart CCZ has just put in a very convincing double-bottom @2.15p in early and late March-21.

Incidentally CCZ has also been trading range-bound between 2.15p and 2.8p since 1-Mar-21 so any daily close above 2.6p or the current 20DMA on the weekly chart is good , but a close above 2.8p signals a very bullish 'game on' to me as it also breaks the 200 DMA at 2.75p and the 50DMA at 2.8p on the daily chart.

Lots to look forward to methinks and it shouldn't take much good news for this to run up quite convincingly especially as the Weekly RSI has just moved off neutral 50 to a racy 50.7 !
ATB APR

@TornadoTony Thanks for a very useful explanation. So focusing on GEOs rather than just gold. FY2021 guidance is "Forecast total metal production for FY 2021 of 64,000 to 72,000 GEOs (FY 2020 actual production: 67,249 GEOs)"

In Feb-2021 Hardman & Co. pointed out "AAZ achieved an 8% shortfall versus the lower end of its 75k-80k GEOs production guidance in 2020" which IMHO given everything thrown at them is remarkable. Ref: Hardman Info @ https://www.hardmanandco.com/research/corporate-research/february-2021-investor-forum-2/

So FY2021 production guidance COMPARED to FY2020 actual achieved ranges from up 7% to down 5% over FY2021, which in retrospect makes todays market reaction overblown given it already knew 2020 production. What has changed is:
> mix of metals being produced to deliver the GEOs going forward into FY2021= less gold and more copper
> forward guidance for FY2021 is lower than FY2020 guidance, albeit actual 2020 production achieved is mid-range of FY2021 guidance

In summary AAZ are signalling flat GEOs in FY2021 guidance +7%/-5% compared to FY2020 actuals and indicating intent to bring forward more upside IF they can establish viability for shipping in ore from Vejnaly.

Perspective is everything and I still maintain AAZ as a growth stock with a bonus dividend.
AIMHO APR

@JTD I Concur since picking up a chunk of AAZ following the repatriation of the contested areas it looks like the market has now fully discounted any upside from that (back to 129p) and another chunk for good measure. Everything I have seen from AAZ to date implies well managed and communicated operational competence so I am getting the sense that management has dropped the ball and/or just stretched too thin to cover all that is going on.

Given what has been going on could not have been foreseen let alone planned for so this is not surprising, but a bit disappointing that Plan B could not be expressed more fully.

Still happy to hold, unfortunately no free funds to add down here.
ATB APR

On the plus side (2) ... PX just bounced smartly off support at 117p and was bought into. Hopefully cooler heads prevail.
ATB APR

On the plus side ...
> POG is definitely firming up @$1,745 although I am not expecting fireworks just consolidation
> POS is $25.5 and has recently broken out from its early Feb-21 downtrend now at $
> POC is $9,170 & has been consolidating for the last 7-8 weeks circa $8,800 to $9,100 and looks like it may have broken out

From todays RNS "The production guidance has been calculated using the following metal prices used for the 2021 budget:
- Gold: $1,650 per ounce
- Silver: $25 per ounce
- Copper: $8,700 per tonne"