Member Info for aprogerson

Yep all lined up for this mornings CC at 1100
ATB APR

I'm also in Aussie copper/gold Explorer Rincon that IPO'd in Dec-20 dropping from 0.49c to 0.19c at its worst on no news over rainy season. They announced exploration start 26-Apr-20 @0.26c and bounced up 30% over the week to 0.34c yesterday.
All about newsflow for these junior explorers
ATB APR

@F&H Agreed, the only unknown is where best to put that extra drilling effort ... good job first round is running ahead of schedule
ATB APR

@Marco Abso-ruddy-lutely !
ATB APR

@BushyTailed If you like Tailings try Jubilee Metals who focus on converted other producers muck/tailings into metals.

Thanks @BushTailed ... a very useful table but surprised Anglo Asian Mining AIM:AAZ producing Gold, Silver copper is not on CHIPs list.
With regards to GWMO I am invested and I have run the calcs myself and not sure where Bamf gets £26m from, but £2.6m to £3m would be a reasonable assessment of revenue.
ATB APR

@BushyTailed My answer is wholly dependent on:
(1) where you think metal prices will be in 6-12 months time given current Gold weakness as DXY strengthens
(2) relative leverage to metals price given underlying AISC and debt

By my rough calcs HUM forward guidance (AISC and metals produced) indicates free cashflow multiple of 2x to 2.85x current MCap whereas another of its peers Resolute Mining sits at around 3.4x FCF on last quarters production albeit RSG carries a large amount of debt vs. HUM with next to nothing. RSGs AISC currently stands at $1,239 vs. HUMs $1,494 although forecast FY AISCs are not dissimilar.

If someone has the time to work through HUMs peer group my guess is it would still sit towards the bottom end of the peer group on FCF to MCap basis but accept that there maybe better ways of valuing these producers.

I hold GWMO and also rate it as a pure Explorer as it has no production.
ATB APR

@ F29 I point was that CASA and any deal are NOT connected, but the availability of additional cashflow coming from any confirmed deal 'may' influence the type and terms of any deal (or not) entered into IF CASA deal is confirmed in good time given AAL discussions are still ongoing.

Bottom line is it reinforces NvS ability to walkaway if any AAL deal is not good enough as he has other viable options and does not HAVE to accept ANY deal offered..
ATB APR

@Graham Not sure I would sell 20% of ARCM to AAL for £25m if Kalaba plant FCF of £30m+ gives a modest valuation of £90m without exploration potential which we know is huge.

I'd rather 50% JV a 'project' from within one of our licences on the basis that we co-fund the development from Kalaba FCF which as part of ARC parent company is 100% our own revenue. If CAPEX/OPEX was split and (say) ARCM contributed £20m pa that is £40m pa exploration pot for a seriously accelerated shared drill programme. If you look at what GGP has also done with NCM is secure a project financing loan of $50m so that they can meet their 25/30% share of the mine build costs ... something to consider?

I think the maths is now starting to seriously shift in ARCMs favour as NvS has already stated that Kalaba plant can be funded separately using 'plant debt financing' at a reasonable rate so no cash calls or Placings required.
ATB APR

@akhter If CASA goes through that will be £3.6m ($5m) in ARCs bank by 31-Dec-2021 independent of anything else AND in addition to cash already held. This now puts ARCM in a stunning strong negotiating position as it has multiple options backed by a decent overall £5/6m cash-pile.

2 very good uses for this money come to mind:
(1) Drill baby drill ... prove up & confirm Tier 1 status of at least 1 resource
(2) Get Kalaba plant up & running PDQ ... copper pushing $10k/t and £30m+ FCF beckons within 12-18 months. At 3x FCF that would value ARCM at £90m MCap from copper production without anything else

IMHO thinks are looking very good indeed
ATB APR

RNS just issued for conditional sale of CASA to "Golden Mining will be a subsidiary of TSX-V-listed Rackla Metals Inc. (TSX-V: RAK) ("Rackla"), an acquisitive mineral exploration company."

Deal Summary:
> US$750k or £540k on transaction close
> US$750k or £540k on 90 days after transaction close
> US$3.5m or £2.5m loan note payable 31-Dec-2021 & Secured on 3.5m shares of Blackrock Petroleum company @US$2.95/share (£2.1m value)
> Cash of $1m on production of first 30koz within 5 years
> Golden Mining have 24m to produce Technical Report of Resource and pay ARCM $1/ounce gold between 1Moz and 5Moz within 90 days
> 1% NSR up to $25m
Good deal for ARCM and better than the last one!
ATB APR

Yes @x54v RCR is now up 31% from $0.26c on 26-Apr-21 when Laverton drilling programme was announced. Will be very interesting to see how the market reacts when we start getting drill results from Laverton let along South Telfer.
ATB APR

IMHO GWMOs 2021 exploration programme with funded optionality for additional drilling later in the season is a binary bet on hitting something substantive with risks skewed to the upside given prior years geophysics surveys to direct the drill bit.

Absolutely not a 'done deal' but I really like the improved odds especially with copper back in the mix and a path to small scale gold/silver tailings production.
ATB APR

@Dave / Edgar BH acknowledged on todays Proactive interview that an explorer with no revenue needs to raise shareholder funds to continue exploring; no one likes a placing but that is the reality with Junior Explorers!

What I am hoping is that this years exploration programme will:
(a) hit at least one gold/silver veins and/or
(b) extend the Copper JORC resource by increasing size, grade and/or confidence levels

If this can be done then the potential for establishing a JV becomes a real possibility where GWMO can 'swap' equity in a 'project' for a 3rd party to fund all CAPEX/OPEX up to DFS stage. Whilst this seems like giving away the 'crown jewels' in reality (say) 50% of something is much better than 100% of nothing funded by more dilution.

GGP is a fantastic example of this working out very well once they had drilled their now famous HAD005 in Nov-18 with "275m at 4.77g/t gold and 0.61% copper (275m at 5.75g/t gold equivalent*)" which set them up for the JV with NCM albeit conceding a 70% share by the time they get to DFS ... a fair swap for a MCap circa £800m !

My point is that GWMO still needs to prove up at least one 'project' to give a JV partner enough confidence that the cost is worth their while balanced against GWMO giving away too much of the upside in the process.

Alternatively most of the historical mines are very high grade vein type mineralisation which require relatively modest CAPEX/OPEX to mine directly using a 3rd party operator and then push the ore through GWMOs own processing facility to create a wholly owned revenue stream to fund further exploration and avoiding dilution.
ATB APR

@Damocles Since the strategy reset of Nov-2018 GWMO has only stated that they will consider to sell or JV for the JORC copper asset, but I've seen nothing stated more recently on the gold/silver prospects.
ATB APR

On the plus side you 2 have struck gold ... comedy gold !
Insightful, perceptive , knowledgeable and constructive posting at its best ... congratulate yourselves you both deserve it.

@Techtonic Yes Rincon SP hit a low of $20c 10 weeks ago on no news with a slow rise to A$26c @26-Apr and then a decent bounce up to to $30.5c last night following confirmation of Laverton 5km drill programme start and a comprehensive programme including IP, GAIP and drilling at their Paterson prospects across Hasties, South Telfer and Westin projects.

Looks like decent renewed interest ahead of news flow across 4x licence areas over the coming weeks.
ATB APR

Thanks Troajan excellent interview with BH
Trafalgar: Excellent progress with 5 of 6 drill holes now completed and can expect first assays back mid-May with balance end of May-21. Confirmation that drilling has hit expected shallow and deeper targets, but await assays for grades

Cash position: BH confirmed current programme as announced is fully funded and also funds available for secondary programme late summer dependent on drilling results

Olympic Grades: BH confirmed GWMO chasing historic Olympic grades circa 35g/t gold at both Trafalgar and OMCO extension
Looks like lots to keep GC busy over the summer
ATB APR

@riseagain Very perceptive as always
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@techtonic Yes just looking at RCR chart this morning as SP popped up to $30.5c from $26.5c on 27-Apr when RCR announced drilling start at its Laverton project.

Looks like the market is responding very favourably to the news, so will be very interesting over the next few weeks as Hasties near NCMs Telfer plus nearby South Telfer and Westin prospects newsflow starts up namely:
> Helicopter VTEM surveys 200m spacing for 1,100 line km at South Telfer and Westin prospects
> Hasties GAIP IP survey to commence end of April to identify deeper copper/gold mineralisation & successfully used at neighbouring properties
> Hasties drill contractors being procured for maiden RC Drill programme. Target start May/Jun-21
> Westin trial ultra-fine soil sampling programme planning underway
ATB APR