RE: Opinions on the bull market timing28 Apr 2021 22:25
@Shorn Like you I am a Copper/Gold follower and I have a mix of junior explorers and producers after exiting GGP Sept-20 & recycled profits into ARCM, CCZ, Rincon, AAZ, GWMO and GUN (for variety) which I hold for a number of reasons:
> Inflation/deflation suits gold with negative 'real' interest rates due to financial repression driven by need for many governments to inflate away central bank debts rather than 'open' default
> Commodity price rises driven by need for lots of copper & specialist metals for EVs, windfarms and charging infrastructure
> Commodity price rises also driven by supply side constraints and weakening dollar (recent DXY bear flag broke down 19/4)
> Hedge vs. possible monetary reset backed by fractional gold reserve holdings. Central banks dissing gold/silver, manipulating the price down, gold repatriations and banks stocking up ... I follow the actions not the words!
> Silver is most shorted metal with prices below those 2010/2013 which for a predominantly industrial metal makes very little sense. Just try buying some coins or bars for yourself with huge margin over spot if you can source them ... good luck!
> If inflation really takes off large amounts of institutional money will cycle out of growth into value stocks with a hefty allocation to gold and PGM producers especially those paying dividends. Move is already underway
> If governments continue to talk tough on or worst still regulate crypto then smart money will want a new home
I do think Majors now have much stronger balance sheets and will be looking to grow both their production and reserves , via JVs, buyouts & mergers of well advanced juniors/mid-tiers with good assets. Copper is a HUGE challenge due to the often 15+ year mine development cycles and a dearth of big projects.
I don't know about you, but I have a 3-10 year investment horizon and look for juniors with a transformational opportunity so I can recycle profits into dividend paying smaller producers that have decent growth opportunities themselves.
PGM explorers have recapitalised over the year and lost maybe 20-30% without discoveries in the gold/silver pullback whereas producers have been hit hard losing 30-55% in some cases especially those with high AISCs. Already declared JORC resources priced at $1300 gold or $20 silver or $6,500 copper will be revised upwards and more investment will trickle down.
I suspect copper producers/explorers will lead the way out of this over the next 6-18 months followed by silver and then gold ... but what do I know!?
Clearly AIMHO & woefully deranged
ATB APR