Member Info for antonvb

Deals going through ... You know it, I know it and everyone knows it that 50p is too cheap and we all know this is a temporary drop that is way overdone. Be back up to 55p tomorrow or next week. Also got to remember that by the time comes for the merger vote we'll have had our HY results, 1 million barrels of oil per day artificially pumped into the market will have gone overnight, we're more than likely have had a positive Kenya RNS, we'll have almost finished 2022 with mandatory hedges about to reduce for 2023 and it'll be winter.

What is happening is very, very frustrating but one thing is for sure, It can't go on indefinitely.

I think the merger is to avoid an issue in 2025 when the bonds are due. CNE's cash and 35k bopd removes a major headache for TLW in terms of refinancing. And why not create a major player in the African oil market at the same time. I really don't know what is going to happen but look at things very simplistically...... after the merger 100k bopd at $100 is revenue of $3,650,000,000 a year. Almost double the current value of both companies put together. Seems like an exciting prospect to me :-)

I really can't see TLW being lower than 60p after the HY update on 13th of July and could even be in the 70's by then. That's without taking into account the possibility of a Kenya or Guyana RNS before then. I'm pretty sure that by crunch time when it's time to vote on the merger this deal will be a no brainer for CNE holders. They're just *****in at the moment as the way things stand today they will lose a few percent when converting to TLW shares. Rahul has proven he's not stupid .... he wouldn't be attempting this merger if he didn't know what he was doing or have a good plan to get it over the line.

Glad to hear you're getting over it.

We need to get the defibrillator out to wake this baby up.....flat lining at 55p

The fundamentals have still not been updated with the 21 financial results, however every other company seems to have been updated. This isn't shown on the https://www.londonstockexchange.com/ website either whom say the data is provided by FTSE Russell Data Solutions. I looked at the FTSE Russell website but their contact us page just seems to give you the option to subscribe to their mailing list. Does anyone have an email for FTSE Russell Data Solutions or want to drop an email to Tullow investor relations, as this is getting ridiculous. When investors look at Tullow they should be able to see the turnaround in results from 21 compared to 20 instead of just the old abysmal fundamentals data from 2020.

I might be wrong and hope I'm not, however to me it looks like now the shorts have stopped frantically reducing in CNE that the parity between the two share prices is starting to head towards the 3.8068 multiple.

Adieuk32 if you watch the AOI Q1 results presentation from last month Keith Hill talks about Kenya again and is very bullish about it. In this presentation during his update he states that we should know either way by the end of June (almost his exact words). The problem with Africa is things often take a little longer than they should, so deadlines can be easily missed as was the case with his 10th May deadline given in the AOI FY end results presentation. Rahul alluded to this fact again during the merger presentation stating that it'll happen when it happens. So we just have to be patient.

Got a response....

Hi Anton,

Thank you for your email. We'll reach out to the data supplier and ask why that's not been updated.

Kind regards
Craig

I emailed them and asked them to update the fundamentals. Will see what happens.

I think Odey is just trying to wait it out till oil drops at some point in the future or 2025 when the bonds need to be repaid. Honestly think this merger must be giving them sleepless nights, as if it happens they will make huge losses. Serves their greedy a**s right for not closing when TLW went below 10p. Just shows their character that they're not happy unless it's total annihilation.

Anyone know why this website hasn't updated the "Fundametals" section for TLW with the 2021 results info. Seems to have been done for every other share I've checked on here but not TLW. Perhaps me just being a bit paranoid, but almost like there is a concerted effort to suppress anything positive about this share.

Sorry, I'll rephrase that....

No1plasterer how's that bet against the TLW share price rising doing?

JMAX I despise shorters. They are like a cancer that should be eradicated and don't give me that bull that they bring balance to the market, blah, blah, blah. Short selling should be banned. If you want to gloat about your short on a down day as No1plasterer did then you need to be able to take a bit of stick on an up day. Oh by the way..... did I mention that we're up 5% today.

No1plasterer you're very quite today..... how's that short doing?

Don't know what you lot are going on about ..... Rahul has said many times they are farming down Kenya...... was even mentioned in the AGM Statement on 25th May (RNS Number : 6737M) and in the AGM presentation. Very much doubt the merger will change this and Kenya will probably be used as a sweetener for the Capricorn vote to approve it.

"· In Kenya, our team worked closely with our Joint Venture Partners to revise the development plan. Our new plan targets more resources, delivers higher production and significantly reduces the project unit costs. This plan has restructured a commercially difficult project into an investible opportunity, and we are working with potential strategic partners to reduce our stake in the project to be more in line with a company of our size."

It'll state your short is on fire.....

Looks like Shell are in town too...

https://twitter.com/AmbMonicaJuma/status/1534446284911874048?cxt=HHwWgMC4sYWxucsqAAAA

Thanks ..... looking good .... RNS must be due very soon!

All this talk of the merger has taken the focus away from Kenya. Keith Hill said at the the Africa Oil Q1 results presentation that we should know by the end of June (either way). So can't be long to wait now and even if Tullow sells half its stake that should add another 30k bopd to our production in the near future. Suddenly the merger will make a lot more sense to CNE holders as that is nearly equivalent to their daily production being added to the 65k bopd TLW are already producing.

No....I think TLW and CNE holders both vote. This is in the CNE RNS:

"The Capricorn Directors, who have been so advised by Morgan Stanley as to the financial terms of the Combination, consider the terms of the Combination to be fair and reasonable. The Capricorn Directors have also received financial advice on the Combination from Rothschild & Co. In providing its financial advice to the Capricorn Directors, Morgan Stanley and Rothschild & Co have each taken into account the commercial assessments of the Capricorn Directors.

Accordingly, the Capricorn Directors intend to recommend, unanimously, that Capricorn Shareholders vote in favour of the Scheme at the Court Meeting and the resolutions to be proposed at the Capricorn General Meeting, as the Capricorn Directors who hold Capricorn Shares have irrevocably undertaken to do in respect of their own beneficial holdings of Capricorn Shares, representing approximately 0.2 per cent. of Capricorn's issued share capital as at 31 May 2022 (being the last Business Day prior to the date of this Announcement)."

TLW @ 53.2p a share
CNE @ 213.60 a share
CNE Share value @ 53.2 x 3.8068 = 205.77p

People have been wondering why the CNE share price hasn't been tracking TLW. Well the answer is the big (and small) shorts don't want this deal to go through, as they know it has the potential to really cost them big time. So what do they do, reduce short positions in CNE and do everything in their power to drive the CNE price up, while at the same time doing everything in their power to drive the price of TLW down. That way this merger looks less and less attractive to a CNE holder and the hope is they can get the difference big enough that the deal would be rejected by CNE shareholders.

We really need that positive Kenya RNS ASAP now!!!!