Member Info for antonvb

What you say makes perfect sense and I can see it happening if all goes well..... but for me there's a big problem. If, or should I say when, we get above £1 how do I resist the urge to sell and keep holding. If I did somehow manage that and we got to £2, the urge would be even greater. Not sure I could resist ...... interesting dilemma when the time comes.

"I strongly believe that Tullow can and will deliver substantial value to all our stakeholders in the coming years."

I want 90p by 3pm not in the coming years ... sigh

Being realistic .... it's pretty obvious the Kenya deal is not signed as news always leaks and we're still sitting at 54p today. As the deal isn't signed Rahul will not be able to give any update on Kenya. So we have to hope for some other good news and good numbers for Q1. They're probably averaging nearly 50% more per barrel of oil this year than last year, so here's hoping for 60p tomorrow.

Who is this imposter and what have you done with JMAX....lol

Let's not get ahead of ourselves......we have to make a profit first

Forget 9 months..... 1 million barrels of oil a day being released from strategic reserves will suddenly disappear from the market within the next 4 months.

Plus longer term ..... in 2023 Tullow is only required to hedge 50% and we know depending on the type of hedge the downside can ge protected with full expose to the upside remaining. If for example half of Tullows hedges for next year are of this type it would mean 75% exposure to the upside and high oil prices. I think people are forgetting this and will hopefully be pleasantly surprised on Wednesday given we're averaging nearly $90 a barrel this year.

Plus I'll start rioting if they try lock me down again....grrrr

When you Google "Tullow Oil", select news and then sort by date an article appears from 1 day ago with the headline

Tullow announces bond offering to raise $300m
Oil and gas production company Tullow Oil has announced plans to raise $300m through an offering of convertible bonds due in 2021.

At first glace this appears negative as Tullow appear to be raising cash. However, on closer inspection and clicking into the article it is an old article from July 2016. So the question is how does it suddenly make it into the sort to show as an article from one day ago. Am I crazy or could it be the shorters paying to get these negative articles ranked higher so they appear more recent. We seem to also have had several random negative articles in the past few months with not much content except for a twisting of something into a negative without really giving any detail or facts. For example:

https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/bd/economy/no-deal-in-sight-on-strategic-turkana-oil-investor-search-3816548
https://simplywall.st/stocks/gb/energy/lse-tlw/tullow-oil-shares/news/investors-in-tullow-oil-lontlw-from-three-years-ago-are-stil
https://pumps-africa.com/tullow-oils-kenya-assets-risk-depreciating/
https://www.the-star.co.ke/business/kenya/2022-04-06-tullow-oil-pleads-for-delayed-kenya-production-license/

Barhut are you on drugs ..... we have the AGM next week and Tullow is about to announce their best Q1 in a very, very long time. Plus the news on Kenya is imminent and all the signs are very positive. Short away if you want to, I'm definitely holding till the Kenya announcement. Anything is possible but the smart money is on staying in till at least the end of June and being just a little more patient.

There's no conspiracy by the shorters .... everything is down today.

Everything is down today ....

Stuartv .... if you need another pick me up and haven't already done so, watch the Africa Oil Q1 results presentation from last week Friday. Keith Hill discusses Kenya on slide 10 at around 17minutes into the presentation. Very positive too.

https://event.webcasts.com/viewer/event.jsp?ei=1549259&tp_key=fea75ba35e

https://youtu.be/wFVbUDxdJD0

Fire up the combine harvester ..... this is what Keith Hill said about Kenya on Friday last week during the Africa Oil update:

"As you heard in the press we are actively engaged in bringing in a strategic partner"
"I think we're coming to the end of that path, I think we're getting very close to signing a deal"
"But I think we've got some very interested parties and I think there's a fairly good chance we'll get this over the finish line in the next couple of months"
"Kenya we still think is a real cornerstone project for the company"
"So again the Kenya Farm Out, I think by the end of June we should probably know one way or the other"

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Oil-Prices-Surge-Past-113-As-Shanghai-Signals-End-Of-Lockdown.html

At 24:20 in he states:

"So again the Kenya Farm Out, I think by the end of June we should probably know one way or the other"

Just watching the Africa Oil presentation from Friday now and is well worth a watch (link below). Kenya is discussed on slide 10 at around 17 minutes into the presentation.

https://event.webcasts.com/viewer/event.jsp?ei=1549259&tp_key=fea75ba35e

Can't seem to get a transcript of the video, but below are some quotes from Keith Hills update on the Kenya slide:
"As you heard in the press we are actively engaged in bringing in a strategic partner"
"I think we're coming to the end of that path, I think we're getting very close to signing a deal"
"But I think we've got some very interested parties and I think there's a fairly good chance we'll get this over the finish line in the next couple of months"
"Kenya we still think is a real cornerstone project for the company"

Lazy journalism or sponsored by the shorts.... this is the actual extract from Africa Oil's statement last week:

"During 2021, the Company and its JV Partners (Tullow Oil and TotalEnergies) have completed the redesign of Project Oil Kenya to ensure it is technically, commercially and environmentally robust. The Company and its partners initiated a farm-out process for Project Oil Kenya in 2021. Advanced discussions are on-going with the interested parties. A successful farm-out is viewed by the Company as a critical step towards the FID for Project Oil Kenya being achieved over the course of next year. There is no guarantee that the Company can successfully conclude a farm-out to new strategic partner(s) on favorable terms. The Company will update the market on this process in due course."

Two key points from the statement:
* Advanced discussions are on-going with the interested parties.
* The Company will update the market on this process in due course

Well that's what I think anyway.

I think that if Kenya were going to revoke the license from Tullow they would of done it by the 10th of May, as per the deadline given by Keith Hill when Africa Oil presented their results. Therefore, I think it's probably more a case of a delay on the side of the Kenyan government in getting all the red tape in place before issuing confirmation of the license extension. Not unusual for Africa. The longer it takes the more the announcement will take the shorters by surprise, but hopefully we don't have to wait too much longer.

https://www.myjoyonline.com/free-gas-from-jubilee-fields-for-power-generation-to-cease-by-year-end/