Member Info for antonvb

Let's hope it's an award for the CEO of the new strategic partner in Kenya for when they hit 120K bopd!

Judging by the sentiment in recent posts on here I think a lot of doubt is creeping into Tullow holders. Everyday I also find myself questioning my position and wondering if I should just take my money and run.

I think back to the days when we couldn't seem to stay above 30p. We'd get there and boom, drop straight back to the 20's or lower and I'd kick myself for not selling. However, that seems like a long time ago now and we seem to be consistently over 50 now. So now, holding back then doesn't seem so stupid.

The gamble now is Kenya and the Guyana drill. What are those going to do to the share price. I doubt they are priced in so there will be a decent jump on good news. If the news is bad I'm sure the price will drop, however I think it will only be a temporary drop as Rahul's Ghana plan seems to be delivering and Tullow is definitely making money, while high oil prices seem here to stay. So think the gamble is worth it and it wouldn't be prudent to sell now even if we hit 60p again, as I think Tullow must of had one of its best quarters for quite some time and don't see any signs to suggest otherwise e.g big short increases.

So let's all think happy thoughts and will this higher while we wait for good news. Surely can't be long now and surely must be good news. GLA

1gandhi I suggest you watch the Tullow Oil plc: FY results webinar, Mar 2022. Very good info in there and on the current hedges.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ei4740KFgzE

Because they can....?

Today is one of those IF days...

IF I'd sold at 60p...
IF I sold the house and went all in at 7p...
IF I sell now...
IF I top up now...
IF there's a Kenya RNS...
IF I sell next time it gets to 60p...
IF I hold till 2023...

Deeko thanks for putting the record straight so if anyone reads the thread they will hopefully get the full picture rather than just January2's nonsense. I suspect January2 is subtly trying to ramp ENQ and while deramping Tullow. They've done it in the past before.

PS: Just back from holiday doing my bit for the oil price, as did 6 flights in the process :-). All were full, so good to see people travelling again.

BumBum I do agree. It is very frustrating that we've hit 60p and dropped back about 6 times now. I'm really hoping that this time will be different and any pull back will be small. My worry at the moment is Kenya, as is it a case of buy the rumour and sell the fact or are we going to get that RNS we've been dreaming of.

As for 60p, we'll definitely see this again soon unless there is a negative RNS about something. I guess when it then dips again we'll know its you unloading your 850k shares :-)

With the size of your holding you could probably trade this share nicely, as dumping £1m shares would cause a 3 to 5% dip, at which point you could buy back in cheaper. That is basically why I think the share price isn't really rocketing, as MM's are making their money by causing the 5% swings.

You have a point Shawz007. Still think we'll be over 60p again next week though. 60p is just a psychological price point as it is a round number....for example when we drop from 58p to 56p no seems particularly bothered, but drop from 61p to 59p and the sky is falling on our heads.

Positions being closed for the long weekend.....back over 60p next week.

BloodyRedBaron thanks. I was being thick and was thinking of it from the point of view of being long on oil and long on Tullow rather than short on Tullow. Oil goes up....you make on your long oil position and lose on your Tullow short position. Hence the hedge....all clear now :-)

It has been mentioned several times here before that TLW shorts may be used to hedge a long position on oil. Can someone please explain that to me, as I don't get it. Surely if oil goes up TLW goes up and similarly, if oil goes down TLW goes down. How does that make a sensible hedge?

FlyoverE....of all your crazy posts that is the craziest but yet in the plainest English.

Damn it...... I made a typo

60p or 65p

I think yo made a type in the subject line.....should read

60p or 65pp

Well well above :-)

DestituteBroker.....am I correctly reading between the lines that you are that seller? Seems strange that you mention a randomn price of 47p for buying and a 4 week time line, when theoretically they could of bought at any price at any time.

All these articles are based on this statement from the 2021 results. Who knows what's going to happen with Kenya and read into this what you will, however I honestly think these articles are sponsored by the big shorts. There's no facts or substance in them and they focus on the negative from the statement.

"In Kenya, the Group had received a 15 month licence extension from September 2020 to December 2021 which was contingent on certain conditions, including submission of a technically and commercially compliant Field Development Plan (FDP). On 10 December 2021 Tullow and its JV Partners submitted an FDP to the Government of Kenya and fulfilled its licence obligations. The Group expects a production licence to be granted once due Government process has been completed. In line with its accounting policy, the Group has performed a VIU assessment of Kenya asset following identification of triggers for impairment reversal. This resulted in an NPV significantly in excess of the book value of $255.2 million. However, the Group has identified the following uncertainties in respect of the Group's ability to realise the estimated VIU; receiving and subsequently finalising an acceptable offer from a strategic partner and securing governmental approvals relating thereto, obtaining financing for the project and government deliverables. These items require satisfactory resolution before the Group can take FID. Due to the binary nature of these uncertainties the Group was unable to either adjust the cashflows or discount rate appropriately. It has therefore used its judgement and assessed a probability of achieving FID and therefore the recognition of commercial reserves. This probability was applied to the VIU to determine a risk adjusted VIU and compared against the net book value of the asset. Based on this there is no impairment or impairment reversal as at 31 December 2021. Should the uncertainties around the project are resolved there will be a reversal of previously recognised impairment. However, if the uncertainties are not resolved there will be an impairment of $255 million."

Also, spare a thought for poor old LordNaz and his whatever amount of shares.... sold in the 40's to go into Metro bank at around 100p if I recall correctly.

I honestly think some of these articles are paid for by the big shorts. They take a statement out of the results and put a negative spin on it. I'd suggest anyone who reads that also reads the actual statement on this in the results.

https://newsghana.com.gh/and-where-is-ghanas-oil-cash/