Member Info for antonvb

As does Rahul ..... his recent award of 1,982,915 shares would be worth £1,189,749 at 60p, but is today at 46.5p now worth £922,055.

Bailiff maybe you should rather be asking him what he sold his holding for. He's one of the ones that jumped ship at 30p and went to ENQ. Hence his deramping on here.

Very interesting..... Tullow certainly fits the criteria in the article. Rahul seemed to inexplicably lose interest in exploration in Namibia....could that be because Shell are about to take over and are big in Namibia or could it be because it's another big oiler who doesn't want to compete with Shell...could also just be me overthinking.

I personally would like a take over, as it would give me an exit. Well a take over for more than £1 anyway....

Really depends how you want to play it, but the pattern of hitting 60 and dropping back is not unique. Since early 2020 this also happened between 10 to 20p, 20 to 30p, 30 to 40p and 40p to 50p. Each time in these ranges there were at least 4 to 6 times where, with the benefits of hindsight, you could of sold on the round number and bought back in 20% or more percent lower. Problem is predicting these swings.

I still think there's a lot of upside and the 15% results drop was way overdone. Ironically I think the record oil price in Q1 this year hurt us as people got carried away and expected miracles in the results. They forgot that the average oil price last year was only $70.86 a barrel and some of Tullows oil was hedged with a $67 ceiling.

When there have been these kind of swings I generally think to myself what has fundamentally changed between the high and the new share price besides sentiment. The answer tends to be not a lot, so I just hold and wait. Not good for the blood pressure though.

Can't predict the future but even if the war in Ukraine ends today, can't see the West buying Russian oil again for a while. At the very least they will still want to become less dependent on it, so $100 oil is probably here for a while. Then we have to hope the 6 new wells this year significantly increase production , they sign a sweet gas deal with Ghana, FID Kenya and find a gusher in Guyana. If the stars align, even to some degree, at some point in the future when you sell you won't even remember the drop this week.

Antonvb, ramping Tullow since 2020. Your investments may go up as well as down. Current performance is no guarantee of future returns and you may get back less than you invested.

GLA

Think there's a 90p by 3pm merchandising opportunity there for Shawz .... caps, hoodies, t-shirts .... I'd buy one :-)

Thanks TherunningMan and Stuartv ... so it is just my paranoia :-)

I the past two articles with broker ratings changes Tullow has appeared under the SMALL CAP companies rather than FTSE 250. While we fit the small cap definition would be nice to see us listed under the FTSE 250 section given we're actually in the FTSE 25o. Maybe my imagination but does seem like this company is put down by the MM's at every opportunity.

The YellowstoneAdvisory link to the presentation

https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register/4416443396245/WN_zuKrMkEKQD2ad186qYMiEg

replace the stars in the link with the following without the spaces

www. research-tree. com

There is a statement in the Tullow 2021 results about how the Kenyan asset will be treated in the accounts (full statement below). It basically says there's a binary outcome which either means they book an impairment or impairment reversal. The interesting sentence to me in the statement is that after a VIU assessment, they have determined the following "It has therefore used its judgement and assessed a probability of achieving FID and therefore the recognition of commercial reserves.". So we have the Africa Oil CEO excited about Kenya and Tullow seeming to think it's probable we'll get FID in Kenya. Then we have to look at Rahul's body language in the results presentation, definitely was hiding something when asked the question about Kenya. The million dollar question is what, however if it was bad news surely they couldn't of assessed the Kenya FID as a probability?

Seems there is another call on the 29th of March to update on company performance:

https://*********************/events/yellowstone-advisory/tullow-oil-plc-fy-results-webinar/799

"In Kenya, the Group had received a 15 month licence extension from September 2020 to December 2021 which was contingent on certain conditions, including submission of a technically and commercially compliant Field Development Plan (FDP). On 10 December 2021 Tullow and its JV Partners submitted an FDP to the Government of Kenya and fulfilled its licence obligations. The Group expects a production licence to be granted once due Government process has been completed. In line with its accounting policy, the Group has performed a VIU assessment of Kenya asset following identification of triggers for impairment reversal. This resulted in an NPV significantly in excess of the book value of $255.2 million. However, the Group has identified the following uncertainties in respect of the Group's ability to realise the estimated VIU; receiving and subsequently finalising an acceptable offer from a strategic partner and securing governmental approvals relating thereto, obtaining financing for the project and government deliverables. These items require satisfactory resolution before the Group can take FID. Due to the binary nature of these uncertainties the Group was unable to either adjust the cashflows or discount rate appropriately. It has therefore used its judgement and assessed a probability of achieving FID and therefore the recognition of commercial reserves. This probability was applied to the VIU to determine a risk adjusted VIU and compared against the net book value of the asset. Based on this there is no impairment or impairment reversal as at 31 December 2021. Should the uncertainties around the project are resolved there will be a reversal of previously recognised impairment. However, if the uncertainties are not resolved there will be an impairment of $255 million."

Anyone told Ammu yet?

Exactly, I've seen in the past two years every time we drop this board is suddenly flooded with experts telling us how bad the hedging is, how bad the strategy is, that the management should be fired, we're all doomed, etc., etc.

barhut seeing as you're so clever, how many Tullow shares did you buy at 7p .... I assume you must of bought 10's of millions given your ability to predict the future or is your ability just to criticise with hindsight?

Wasn't

I also remember Happy selling at 30p and saying Tullow was worth holding.

People are either ignorant, have very short memories or are pushing an agenda with all these negative comments regarding hedging. Everyone knows hedging was a condition needed to be agreed in order to refinance and without refinancing Tullow would have gone bust. This was all done at time when people thought the world was coming to an end due to the pandemic and the oil market was in dire straights. Easy now to say it was a mistake and they should all be fired.

We made a $86m loss and I'm thinking this is largely down to the $76m payment awarded in the HiTec Vision case. So really doesn't justify the 16% drop yesterday as was a one off exceptional payment. Also, it was known before the results.

The great news is we don't have to worry about the proposed windfall tax on oil companies profits :-)

https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/business/news/article/2001439846/kra-withdraws-sh13-billion-tax-demand-against-tullow-oil

Too much panic...... I'm sure some people on here either think it was the 2022 results presentation or that oil was $130 a barrel for the whole of last year.

I'd ignore Krakenoil.....he's one of those bitter ones who sold out his Tullow holdings in the 30's.