Member Info for antonvb

That's the BigRisky you take ..... :-)

Adieuk32 you're definitely onto something there. He definitely struggled to keep his poker face on when asked about Kenya and very strange that he wasn't bigging that up. Almost as if the deal is done but can't divulge it yet so didn't want to say too much but at the same time knew he had to say something but can't speculate on Kenya as it's no longer speculation. They've only committed £5m to Kenya in 2022, which as you say seems unusually low given it's importance to Tullow. Also there was this statement in the section about going net zero which seems strange to include if the project is not going ahead or in doubt, plus seems quite positively worded.

"Elsewhere, as part of Tullow's re-design of its development in northern Kenya, carbon emissions from this project will be limited through a combination of heat conservation, use of associated gas for power and reinjection of excess gas into the reservoir to eliminate flaring. There are also opportunities to use the Kenyan national grid which is substantially powered by renewables and options to offset remaining emissions through local projects. In addition, the 825-kilometre-long pipeline that will transport crude oil from Turkana to the port of Lamu will be buried to further reduce the environmental impact of the project."

I agree, I've also lost on this ridiculous drop .... absolutely no reason for it but panic. However, my point is there is no point stressing over what if's, should of's or could of's. When you sink your cash in you are taking a risk, you have to accept that and if you can't, then you probably shouldn't be investing. I still believe this will be over 60p again very soon, could even see a 5 to 10% bounce tomorrow morning if the price of oil co-operates. End of the day only two shares prices matter .... the price on the day you buy and the price on the day you sell.

What you should of done is bought last nights winning lottery ticket......

Exactly what I was worried about happened. Everyone was over excited as oil is $130 a barrel so was expecting fireworks but forgets that it's the 2021 results on $80 oil with hedges agreed in 2020 when oil was worthless. Between yesterday nothing has changed to drop this over 10% except people like to follow trends, soon as it dips below 60p they start selling frantically so they can buy back in sub 55p. Happened about 6 times alreay in the past year. I'm starting to think I'm a mug for holding and need to try trade the swings too, as people always look for patterns and try follow them. Seen the same pattern here when we were in the 30's and the 40's, before we eventually broke out of both of those patterns. Just a bit too close to the Kenya announcement for me to take a chance unfortunately, so just have to sit back and keep getting abused like a loving spouse :-(

I do think travel will recover and oil will go down, but not in the short or medium term. Plus there's probably millions of people who have travel vouchers to use from cancelled trips in 2020. So there'll be bums on seats but not a lot of revenue. Dropped the Mrs off at Heathrow T5 on Monday evening.....place was like a ghost town and her long hail flight was only half full. Her ticket was bought and paid for in 2019 to travel in 2020, but cancelled umpteen times due to lockdowns and she is now finally only now using it nearly 3 years later... .strange times.

Only realistic because that's your buy in point..... sadly for you I think your tullow rodeo is over. Although in time your travel stocks may recover....but after people have filled their cars, paid their gas, electric and council tax not sure they'll be going anywhere on holiday for a while.

These results are not a surprise and hedging hasn't been a dirty little secret..... you just had to read the end of year trading statement earlier this year. Wouldn't surprise me if it's a nice little dip to flush out those who put stop losses in the 58 to 60p range yesterday. End of the day.....oil still $130, well be getting paid for our gas before the end of the year, 5k extra production almost guaranteed and Kenya moving along nicely.

Here we go........ out come the preachers to save us

Guess we need some soothing words from Rahul at 9am......

It's not like these hedges are a surprise..... unfortunate as they are with the current price of oil, these have been known about for some time and are a hangover from the refinancing. People have to remember these are 2021 results where oil wasn't $130 a barrel or predicted to go to $200.

I just hope people aren't expecting too much from the results today. Reason being is that you have to remember it's last years results and oil did ok last year but wasn't flying like it is this year. That said the asking price is showing as 70p this morning and recently it has been around 60p on mornings when we've jumped 3 or 4% on opening. Let's hope for decent results and a few gems for 2022.

A paltry 56.8p at the moment and a market cap of £815m (roughly $1,067m). Obviously this is what the market has determined, but the question is what should the share price be?

* If we got $77 a barrel for our 45,000 unhedged that's $1,265m a year ..... roughly 20% more than our market cap.
* If we get $100 a barrel average for the 15,000 unhedged that's $547m a year .... half our market cap.
* Then there is the additional 5,000 barrels of oil coming our way (unhedged)
* Plus don't forget the potential of our 60k bopd share from Kenya (at $100 oil this would be $2,190m a year and worth double our current market cap).

Obviously got to factor in costs, capex, debt and the fact that to get Kenya off the ground we probably need to sell part of our stake in it. However, even with all that the share price seems pretty low to me.

Thanks for sharing Adieuk32 ... can't read it as need to be a subscriber but looking at the headline and the diagram of how things will work this is looking very very promising indeed!

Crazy.... I need to buy £100 of Tullow shares to hedge against the next time I fill up with petrol....

A post from seekingalpha in response to our ENQ ramper (rhymes with...) got me Googling and I came across the transcript of the call with Keith Hill. Very encouraging.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/seekingalpha.com/amp/article/4491951-africa-oils-aoiff-ceo-keith-hill-on-q4-2021-results-earnings-call-transcript

"All right. And Keny. Kenya seems to be the forgotten child here in Africa Oil. And I kind don't blame investors on that. We've been at this for a long time. I keep telling everybody here, it's a great project and that we are – we're moving forward on this and we have a very good chance of moving this forward. I can't blame people for not believing me after all these years of making those promises. But I can tell you, we are quite engaged on this. I was in Kenya last week. We have a couple of interested – very interested parties, and I think the chances of getting the strategic partner we've been looking at for the past few years is getting closer and closer. I can't make any promises, and I can't disclose who it is. But I think we're actually getting pretty excited that we're finally going to get over the lump on this and actually move this project forward.

So again, the proof is in the pudding. If we have a partner we're hoping to announce sometime in the second quarter. But the stars seem like they're finally aligning on this, and I think we've got a good chance of actually putting some value into the company on this. I can tell you right now, there is no value in for Kenya in our share price. But if we're able to pull this off, I think this is going to be worth at least $1 probably more a share to the company."

To clarify.....I mean I'm glad it's not a share that's dropped back to March 2020 prices. It is of course still a bargain :-)

There's some real bargain shares out there today. A lot of shares I see are back to March 2020 lows. Sadly I dont have anymore cash to invest, but I'm just glad Tullow is not one of them.

This drop is not Tullow specific.....everything tanked this afternoon. Hell we dropped less than Shell..... in the past on a bad market day we'd be topping the loser board.

Maybe......just maybe.....it's a good omen we're not rising in the week before an update.

Well that post of mine aged well....ffs