This is massive for Tullow1 Jun 2022 15:09
Although I'm no expert, however in my humble opinion Rahul has pulled off a blinder. He's basically secured Tullow's future with this merger. If it weren't for this merger, we'd of had another crisis come 2025 when the bonds needed to be paid back. If the price of oil was low in 2025, e.g. $50 a barrel, refinancing would be a struggle. This way come 2025, the debt/debt refinancing is no longer an issue. Putting Tullow's production aside, if we just look at the extra 35k bopd from Capricorn in simplistic terms that equates to:
at $50 oil = $638,750,000 p.a.
at $80 oil = $1,022,000,000 p.a.
at $100 oil = $1,277,500,000 p.a.
at $120 oil = $1,533,000,000 p.a.
At $50 in one year that is almost our current £778m market cap and at $80 that is more than our current market cap. Crazy to think but the new company could almost buy back every every share if it sold Capricorns 35kbopd for three years at $50. At $80 oil in just 2 years.
I think the shorts will start winding up here as now way too risky to be short and they no longer can afford to take a gamble on Tullow's position being precarious in 2025 or buying Tullow's bonds to try force it into administration. Plus if you listen to this mornings call Kenya is still on the cards and just a matter of when and not if. This share has a very, very bright future.