Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
I've been following pretty much every Kenyan government minister and Turkana local government minister who has ever posted anything about Tullow or oil on Twitter for quite some time now. Plus regularly searching for articles in this regard. There has always been something posted at least weekly, however since the 31 March deadline was extended there has not been anything. The last information article suggested that the government were auditing the expenses Tullow have claimed to have incurred and if they've followed the T&C's of the contract. This leads me to summise:
1) The government are looking for a way to weasel out of the contract and are trying to find out if they can find a break of contract to use as an escape clause.
2) The government are looking for a way to weasel out of the contract and are trying to find out what it will cost them to pay Tullow off.
3) Palms have been greased, deals done and now the paperwork is being put together for the 30th of June deadline, with an agreement being announced. Perhaps with the government having a decent sized stake in the project.
My take is option 1 is probably an unlikely scenario as governments generally get shafted when drawing up contracts with private enterprise and Tullow have more than likely adhered to the conditions to avoid default. Option 2 may be a possibility, as this could be a win for both sides e.g. if Tullow got reimbursed say $500m and Kenya got the oil back I don't think many people would complain. Plus Kenya appease the green agenda and get billions of investment. Option 3 could definitely be a possibility, especially given that Tullow got a free 50% to negotiate with.
So that's just my ramblings on it for what it's worth and am very interested to see Rahul's body language when he talks about it on the 16th of May, as I'd think by then he must have a pretty good idea of how it's going to go down. Approved or rejected, one way or the other I think we're going to get a decision by the deadline this time. Not long to wait now.
Given there's less than a month till the drillship sails away, I'd imagine they must have already completed drilling and are packing up. That begs the question as to what are the production numbers currently for Jubilee and TEN? Still nothing on the Ghana Petroleum Commission website, so are we going to get a nice surprise in the Kosmos Q1 update on 7th of May or in the Tullow trading update on the 16th of May.
https://www.tullowoil.com/investors/events/
https://investors.kosmosenergy.com/news-releases/news-release-details/kosmos-energy-host-first-quarter-2024-results-and-webcast-may-07
If we assume the low estimate this drillship is costing Tullow $250k per day, which is roughly the equivalent of 3,125 bopd at $80 oil. As it is being released 9 months early, that's a saving of $67.5m ($52.5m in 2024). Enough to pay a dividend of around 3p per share, nearly 10% at the current share price. Not saying they're going to, however just putting it into context.
https://www.offshore-energy.biz/as-noble-drillship-winds-down-its-drilling-gig-new-bundle-of-opportunities-springs-up-offshore-africa/
"While disclosing that its 2014-built Noble Venturer seventh-generation Samsung 96K drillship is expected to complete its drilling campaign in Ghana with Tullow Oil in late May 2024 rather than in March 2025, as previously estimated, Noble revealed a batch of new assignments offshore Africa for the rig."
https://ocean-energyresources.com/2024/04/24/noble-venturer-lines-up-work-in-equatorial-guinea/
"The new contract dayrate has been revised slightly upwards to replace the legacy dayrate with Tullow Oil, which was recently in the mid to high $200,000s."
Good to finally get confirmation that we're over 100kbopd at Jubilee from a reputable source.
"Energy minister Matthew Opoku Prempeh told S&P Global Commodity Insights on the sidelines of an energy conference in Accra, the country's capital.
Currently, Prempeh said, Ghana is producing some 130,000 b/d of crude, most of it from the Tullow Oil-operated Jubilee field, which is pumping over 100,000 b/d after a successful 2023 infill drilling campaign. Tullow's TEN and Eni's Sankofa fields, in which Vitol is a stakeholder, make up the remainder. Almost all of Ghana's sweet crude is exported, primarily to China and the Americas, according to S&P Global Commodities at Sea data."
Https://x.com/TullowOilplc/status/1781290839970390279
If you look at photo 1 on slide "Partnering with host nations" that photo was taken in Kenya. Is that a clue that Kenya is imminent?
This is where the photo comes from:
https://x.com/GvnLomorukai/status/1681298356503543808
I know how you all love my obscure Twitter links ;-), so here's an interesting one and they don't come as more obscure than this ....
Dr. Dan Ojowa @danojowa2027
Emperor, Chairman, President & CEO at THE OJOWA EMPIRE
Posted yesterday ....
https://x.com/danojowa2027/status/1780283595044646945
"Petrojowa is exploring how to be involved in Turkana (Kenya), Mozambique, Uganda and South Sudan oil and gas development and production!"
Posted on 5th of April
https://x.com/danojowa2027/status/1776138089607401953
"Petrojowa Group is legally incorporated as Petro Ojowa Group LTD. Petrojowa deals in Exploration, Development, Production, Refining, Distribution and Marketing of Crude Oil, Natural Gas and Petroleum Products. Our journey begins officially."
There is very little info on this guy when you Google him, however there is one TikTok where he says he's running for Kenyan president in 2027. Not many views on it though.
https://www.tiktok.com/@danojowa/video/7325708710817352965
Also no info on Petro Ojowa Group LTD when you Google it. So is this legit and this is the start of a new company in Kenya in which all the relevant government ministers will have stake in order to get their gravy from the oil in Turkana or is he just as insane and deluded as JMAX aka NSVPatel/Stalinvest/etc.
Leaning strongly towards the latter.....
Been a little while since I've done one of these calculations as they've been a little depressing until recently :-)
52 Week High 39.94p
52 Week Low 21.84p
Current share price 36.58p
Shorts have lost 45.32% of potential profit since the year low
Longs have lost 8.41% of potential profit since the year high
Just filter the fool and his aliases and don't take the bait. Trust me you'll feel a lot better for it and he'll soon lose his hard on if everyone ignores him.
However this seems to suggest we'll have a pipeline in 24 months...
https://x.com/LyobaSteve/status/1779588793181339801
Recovery
@LyobaSteve
Oil&Gas , Geothermal, Institute of Ideas, Entrepreneur, The substitute for energy is poverty - it really is that simple.
"Turkana -Lamu crude pipeline coming up in 24 months. KPC financing building of 19’ pipe to Kipevu oil terminal (KOT) to optimise KPRL tankage hospitality. Work ongoing behind the scenes."
Not sure what this is all about, as besides Supercooper I just see a sea of green. Did chuckle to myself as assume it must be insulting or saying how wrong I get it, which can only mean they're rattled (ok they as it's only one with multiple accounts). I mean who in their right mind shorted this recently in the twenties .....
Oh and it is nice to know that a lot of this recent increase is being funded by Pictet buying back shares, so a big thank you to them. We've seen multiple times now that a 0.2% reduction in a short causes a 5% spike on the day they buy back. Just hope they haven't closed completely before the Kenya RNS drops, as imagine what will happen when they're forced to close 1.5% in an uncontrolled manner in a hurry. GLA
Question for you Stumpy .... in the past you've made predictions that have been pretty accurate based on your charts. Have you done a chart lately and is it following the pattern or is it going against the trend. I'm starting to think we may be on the brink of hearing a very positive development with the way the share price is going, especially if this is against the trend i.e. not in the charts.
Https://x.com/EPRA_Ke/status/1778318745968025814
Published 14th December 2023
Read Page 34 .... 5.1 Upstream Sector
https://www.epra.go.ke/energy-petroleum-statistics-report-for-the-financial-year-ended-30th-june-2023/
Published yesterday
Read Page 33 .... 6.1 Upstream Sector
https://www.epra.go.ke/bi-annual-energy-petroleum-statistics-report-financial-year-2023-2024/
When comparing the 2 reports the one released yesterday gives a lot less detail, however seems to indicate that the FDP will be approved. Not sure if it's just my rose tinted glasses though, however I'm really starting to think we'll get a positive outcome.