Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
This article is dated today and implies Rahul is in Kenya this week.... interesting
https://nation.africa/kenya/counties/turkana/leaders-accuse-tullow-oil-of-illegal-disposal-of-waste-4500952
"Governor Jeremiah Lomorukai said that before Tullow Oil can embark on the commercial exploration stage, which will see Kenya extract and export crude oil, it was critical to meet again with the firm's officials to discuss their operations.
"I will this week hold a meeting with
Tullow Group CEO Rahul Dhir to discuss ways of making their operations more transparent and involving all stakeholders including the local community and the county government," Mr Lomorukai said."
Https://youtu.be/fUhP5_P4cb0?si=9MMfMHDJuC8cwRgT
https://www.tvcnews.tv/2024/01/kenya-set-to-exit-g2g-oil-supply-deal/
https://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/tea/business/how-kenya-oil-deal-is-distorting-currency-market-4497914
Kenyans aren't happy with fuel prices or the government and this hasn't turned out the way the government expected. Extracting oil in Kenya would go a long way to improving their popularity.
Looking at the 2023 numbers net to Tullow....
Jubilee 32.5 + TEN 10 + Gabon 14 + 1 Ivory Coast = 57.5 bopd which is just below the bottom of the guidance as was already stated in the November trading update. So this is no surprise.
Looking forward into 2024 if we take the Ghana production numbers for Q4 and use these for 2024 guidance we get:
Jubilee 36 + TEN 10 + Gabon 14 + 1 Ivory Coast = 61 kbopd
If there are indeed issues that have been rectified or about to be rectified and new wells coming online soon, then the guidance will be higher. That would explain Goethe's confidence to buy at 38p. I really hope we don't get the usual cut and paste update on Wednesday and get some real detail.
On another note, looks like Rahul's decision to get out of Guyana may not have been such a bad one after all....
https://www.upstreamonline.com/exploration/uk-based-junior-share-price-drops-as-supermajors-exit-guyana-licence/2-1-1586696
Another snippet out of Kenya
https://www.citizen.digital/news/residents-register-for-title-deeds-as-oil-extraction-in-turkana-nears-resumption-n335267
So I was having my daily movement and thought to myself .... is this a good time to do a little top up? I then thought to myself, well we had a director buy a good few at 38p and we're now 30p so that seems cheap to me. Also, what do we know now that we didn't when it was 38p, that could explain the drop to 30p. Well the answer to me seems to be nothing. All that has happened since than is we have had a downgrade by an institution that has never got it right in the past 2 years and probably has a vested interest, plus a lot of negativity published by institutions that even disclose in the articles they have a short position. So I've put my money where my mouth is and done a little top up (or gamble as DestituteBroker would say) with some funds I was saving for a rainy day and my holiday fund. Quite possible they will try walk this down a little more, however I think come Wednesday they will no longer able to be able to do that. Could be wrong of course and a lot is riding on the Jubilee and TEN production numbers for Q4 2023 that still remain a mystery and therein lies the gamble. However, Rahul did say quite a while back Tullow was producing 65kbopd and that was before the water injection issues were resolved and any 2024 wells come online. If all goes well I'll make a tidy little profit this week as don't plan to hold this top up very long.
Always remember ..... The value of, or income from shares can go down as well as up and you may not get back the original amount you invested.
Antonvb ..... ramping Tullow since 2020
Another obscure clue ... perhaps or perhaps not
https://twitter.com/AriongL/status/1746541131662287094
They did hold it at The Black Gold Hotel in Lokichar though :-)
(see photo 4 or pretty much any of the photos if you need the wifi password... lol).
I always look for little clues on the internet regarding what is happening in Kenya. India Energy week starts early next month, so I checked to see if Tullow are exhibiting or speaking as they did in 2023. There's no mention of them in the event brochure, however what is a little surprising is on page 23. Where it describes the Executive Club one of the photos is of Daniel Kiptoo (Director General, Energy & Petroleum Regulatory Authority, Kenya) and Davis Chirchir (Cabinet Secretary in charge of Energy and Petroleum in Kenya), which I assume is from the event in 2023. Coincidence .... probably, however I hope not.
"Executive Club
The India Energy Week Executive Club will provide an exclusive environment for government, industry, finance and technology leaders to enjoy a VIP experience with world class hospitality and an intimate, comfortable networking space Meeting suites are located within the Executive Club and will allow sponsors to host formal, private meetings away from the exhibition whilst enjoying exclusive VIP catering and hospitality."
https://forms.indiaenergyweek.com/download-event-brochure/
https://www.epra.go.ke/team-members/mr-daniel-kiptoo-bargoria/
https://energy.go.ke/cs-energy-and-petroleum-davis-chirchir
JMAX I'm afraid your petty gloating doesn't bother me in the slightest. Unlike some on here, you included, I'm honest about my position and my mistakes. However, I have no regrets when it comes to share trading, as anytime when you buy or sell you have no idea if it's the right or wrong decision. You just have to go with what you feel is right at the time. It's very easy to post on here with hindsight as you like to do.
If you don't like it sell ..... sell, sell, sell. Really don't get these negative "LTH". Sure maybe you got burnt and are deep underwater and I get that you might be bitter. However, how do you think publicly slating this share will ever help you recover you losses? It will only make them worse I'm afraid.
Would you like to buy may car? It's very old, runs like a dog, won't start on a cold morning, heating doesn't work, aircon is broken, alarm goes off intermittently, I've had it for years and hate it...... no wait don't walk away! Darn it, wish I could sell this damn car!!!
I'm afraid shares don't just do what you want them too because you want them too. Unfortunately you missed the 20's party last year. However, if that is what you believe why not short it and make a killing when it goes into the 20's .... hmmmmm