RE: So just for fun...18 Nov 2019 09:01
Warren, I would say, without a moment's hesitation, that your second scenario is all but impossible. Partly because CEZ is 40% govt owned and this is how Babis gets around his big spiel to bring the communists into alliance with him. I suspect CEZ's 'due diligence' is mostly about checking EMH's PFS figures. And I suspect the process is already complete and final negotiations are underway. That's where I'd put my money on this aspect anyway.
As for the best possible outcome... my guess would be that CEZ become the largest shareholder (not majority) and together with EMH will use their cash and contacts to raise funds and maybe a mining partner to both fund the entire project, and also to push through all the various licences etc in record time. On the basis of this, evidenced by a formal agreement between EMH and CEZ, negotiations with offtakers will proceed apace. What will be interesting is the nature of the relationship between CZ and EMH - who does what and how they work together. I supose this is where there's most potential for stumbling blocks. But Keith's a shrewd mover so I reckon whatever emerges will be the best available and we'll be fine out of it.
I reckon... intermediate funding and licences in place by end february, provisional offtake agreements by end q1, mining partner by end q1 (although CEZ do have experience in this area themselves), fast track to production... (say 2022?).