Member Info for Ant1986

£30m in costs, that's insane, and enough. They must have tax losses coming out of their ears.

I've written off more than a £400m from their valuations too.

Elio - £40m (£55m Liberum worst case book)

Aqua comms - £175m (£227m Liberum worst case book)

Aquiva - £50m (£69m Liberum worst case book)

Cash - £75m (£108m Liberum worst case book)

rest of portfolio £5m

RCF - £35m

Total = £310m (then minus £30m is disposal costs, which is eye wateringly high).

£280m (more than 20% from the price today or 32p) - not going to attract rainbow chasers but that's solid.

I think a large amount of revenue comes from Smart Meters these days.

Happy with the value on offer here.

I keep doing the most miserable calculations on assets held and the worst I can get is £300m. Even with £30m in selling fees that's £270m, £50m north from here (near 20%). I'm going to keep loading here.

Entered this again, dividend cover/yield is too good at this level.

Plenty of the sidelines will have gone for it this morning, in my view. Risk/reward says so. Might get 11p but with the oil situ it looks more likely 14/15/16p is arrive first and then we have the trading update booked in for 1-3 weeks time.

Every month oil trades above $75 this company becomes more grossly undervalued.

A bunch this morning, slightly above 550p. Hope it's a simple back test before aiming for that gap at 610p. Finger's-crossed.

Looks like the real driver is a report on jobs being shed and advertising being reduced to 2009 crash levels.

I think that might be the case but fully support their view that digital advertising will have taken up a lot of the slack. I've advertised on ITV and know some of the backroom staff, it's a decent operation and the analytics/joined-up advertising on ITVX is impressive.

Don't despair :)

And we remain unmoved. Hmmm.

With every month that passes, the risk is becoming less and less. If we hedge now for 6 months, that's our FCF secure for 2024 (pretty much).

Think these Director purchases are intending to show the bottom is in.

Should snap back to 120p pretty quickly from here.

The UK retail number (-3.2%) was dire this morning but I think we have that MORE than baked in here.

Oil price goes up, share price goes down joke. Classic.

Think someone touched on this but when the share price has risen 40%, a 10% fall isn't the end of the world. Unfortunately for us, we haven't seen any kind of rise since falling from 18p in Autumn.

I just keep remembering that number. It's insane. Share price/MCAP could be double this and not look stupid.

Par for the course in Iceland.

While terrible for that village, it’s a known area, while Verne’s site isn’t.

Jesus, that was badly written by me.

PE of 5 to cover VLN.

2025 not 2015, wishful thinking!

Arqiva Is YTD is £91.3m EBITDA or £44m to DGI9 (£88m per year).

With a PE of just 3, it covers the mcap.

Now I get the VLN is £170m but that would require a PE of just 6 and they note it was always going to be renegotiated.

Aqua Comms kicks in when the new line starts in India (2015) - but reckon you could sell that business for £100m today.

I think the share price is seriously discounted at the moment, even using the worst case for every calculation.

Is bang on still, so much will happen this year in the sport’s world and sales will be stronger here than many others.

Yup!

I've worked for 4 sportwear brands and know how big these kind of years are.

Great entry, not bothered if it hits 100p, it will storm back by Q3, as you say. 15p downside versus 40/50p upside. Ideal risk reward.

Where does it mention strong inventories?

Retail has many arrangements with the brands it stocks to avoid any major issue here. The other catalyst is that 2024 is a European Final year, which always drives sports gear sales.

This will add minimum 20p/30p a share in no time this year.

If you were still invested?

Instead, you waste more time with a pile of assumptions and calculations, around a $15m (£11m) 'discrepancy' while the market moves around £50m between weeks, regardless.

Just two weeks ago, £40m+ was added to the bottom line and no one has done the same level of calcs on the positives.

Pull the other one.

Relax.

Nothing has changed.

Stop with the conspiracy theories.

Picked up a bunch, today, I don't see 14p again...

Debt is reducing at such a rate and isn't being reflected in the SP.