Member Info for Ant1986

No idea what it didn't like. Only thought is that it's been nobbled for a complete takeover. £300m could get you a huge amount now, if you have deep pockets to fulfil the debts/commitments.

Disagree with the market.

£150m Aqua Comms

£100m Aquiva

£30m Elio

£70m cash

£5m rest of portfolio

-£35m RCF

-£30m selling fees (10%!!)

Everything priced like it's a fire sale = we trade £100m discount.

Granted if you're using the NAV, and bought in at 35p+ plus, it's toast.

Very assured about the sale of Verne, which I'm happy with. It has to begin by getting that sale concluded.

Also stressed the sale of Aquiva is NOT due to poor performance but share structure. I believe the business is still strong and growing, so no immediate concern from me.

Valuation and update by month end.

Go to DGI9 website, click the link in the webinar RNS, register. Done.

Somewhat comforted by a 33% hedge this quarter to ensure price and with production back to normal, I'm expecting Feb's update to be OK. As a result, I think this is too cheap.

Will need energy prices to return by April/May though, which I think should coincide with rate cuts and demand lifting. Happy with my low 9's.

Wasn't dovish as expected, hence cut immediately after. Retail market will get battered by the look of it, but OCDO is doing much better this financial year. Still don't think 380p is on the cards.

I mean I was being quite tongue in cheek.

It's not too difficult to place approximate figure against each business using published EBIDTA.

My worst calcs in a fire sale, assuming 10% selling fees is circa £280-£300m. Essentially, if you bought over 30p, you're not seeing much return for your £, unless you're expecting earn-out and reasonable values for remaining businesses.

I doubt you do, based on your history. 12 today, get em' closed, boyo ;)

1. How did you manage to lose £600m of shareholder value in one year?

2. How did you manage to invest £1.4bn and only return £200m in assets?

3. What are the new values the ascribe to the companies after recent review?

On the 28th too. Can't see it dropping into them. Xmas should have been strong based on last update.

Hmm, interesting posting from some here.

Just wait until dovish BOE today. 12pm we'll see it spin back up. 380p? That's a 30% drop from here. Not until the markets blow up, which isn't now, in my view.

Should touch 550p again, minimum, possibly today.

It's bonkers. My valuation is 30% lower than the worst case and still £70m higher than today.

Bought 900,000 shares in the 30's - surprised they aren't buying more now? :D

Excellent :D

There is a call on Friday, hopefully it will shed some light on proceedings and calm a few people down.

Reckon I could raise £100m, 50/50 OK? ;)

£3.1bn net assets in Arqiva and we own 48% (but owe £170m in VLN). Entire company valued at £200m. Nah.

Indeed.

I do wonder if we'll see a bid here to snatch the assets at a snip. Currently, you can get everything for £200m and just block/stop the Verne deal, if you have deep enough pockets/see the value.

It's certainly into crazy valuation area.

It’s really strong, isn’t it, and I’m booking it in at £50m, despite buying the stake for £400m+

Now valued just above £200m for everything we have (minus Verne). Nuts. Screw broker concerns, it’s too low. I recall brokers crying about Rolls Royce at 70p before it went to 300p.

Also worth pointing out, I'm absolutely not factoring in any earn-out from Verne, I haven't allowed any enterprise value for red sea cable (Aqua Comms), or the fact that Arqiva is growing/showing sizeable EBITDA.

I've priced everything below book, believing a fire sale situ. You'd be taking the pi££ to value anything lower.

I have been around long enough to know that not all deals are done transparently. It's staggering that they spent £1.4bn and have about £300m in assets. I mean, Jesus. Barely any column inches about it either.

I'm also comforted that a bigger/angrier shareholder has called the shots since before Xmas and am relieved it's being wound down.

Avg is 26.2p - so I'm not going to lose sleep. I can't see how it gets much lower, unless Verne sale derails but no mention of adversity there.

No doubt, this is utterly terrible, but it's about timing for me.