Member Info for Ant1986

10% down on 5% tender offer.

I didn't expect £3 but £2.30 / £2.40 wasn't exactly a dream. Especially given the opportunity cost.

If you get £2 or less tomorrow you've an absolute steal. There is zero premium for cash in bank now. Nothing for assets. Nothing for exploration. Nothing for management or skilled work teams.

I cannot work out what's going on from a holdings perspective but some mighty real games going on. Even if the II's wanted to avoid tax they don't want a hugely depressed share price. In fact, neither does the MM, because it becomes less and less likely any of us will accept it. That means the price can go north quickly!

$130 a barrel and £1bn cash - now cheaper than no cash confirmed and $85 oil.

Haha, nothing to see here.

My view is that the MM sold a whacking great load they didn't have and borrowed from II's looking for tax advantages. It's now massively in the MM's interest to hold the price down and find the exit for those shares via the company. Utter *******s. Hold and don't tender here.

We all understand what a NAV is, especially based on cash. All they had say is: "Here is the offer, 5% above the current SP, which is 30% below nav (which is important for investors staying). Take it or leave it"

But no, now it's open to completely crazy manipulation, who's going to benefit from a low take out? The MM! Everyone who bought since the money arrived was north of what number? Around 214p!

MM will stamp on this, knowing all 214p plus entries will be sold to Cairn. Every sale they made in recent weeks above 214p is profit to them.

Watch.

I don't think the company had factored in a $125 oil price, no. The TO plan has fallen apart. The mechanism is shambolic. Unless the SP goes significantly north, why would you tender? Not even a good idea for an institution at 208p +/-5%

How this is testing 205 and back to 214 is beyond me on those numbers. All you have to do is tick it over and do next to nothing for 2-3 years and you'll make $500m profit!!

I removed my limit sell and expect something to happen here. Bid of £2.40 would probably take it out.

I knew they had missed that and would bury it in end of year. I have zero on value on exploration and still think the price is nuts.

Crazy valuation. Buy us.

Yeah, decent trades popping up.

The issue with this tender is, whereby you have to choose (if you're accepting) spuds, 1% 3% 5% or whatever the other point means, it's like golden balls.

Steal or split.

Naturally you want 5% premium but it's easy to get undercut and miss out. Guess it depends on valuation but the MM is a total joke. 206p - 221p range just today. More than a hundred million went in seconds when it's in cash!

Chomsky is good and most follow the underlying financial reasoning, including US/UK war crimes against UN/NATO agreements, but at no point were nukes being waved around. Nor did anyone threatened flattening an entire continent. Nor did we blanket out coverage or deny free speech.

As Chomsky alludes, while our democracy isn't great, it's better than others have.

Bugger, said I wouldn't talk about the war.

Bloody hell Baysil, had only just seen how strong the dollar is! That makes a big difference. How on earth are we tracking at 213p...

I was wrong, apologies.

If the deal was based on today.

I've no idea now, the results tomorrow will have a big bearing, hopefully we'll see better than 210p!!

Results tomorrow should really highlight the value here. No more back of cigarette pack calcs.

Apologies, yes I see now, it's just the VWAP between now and close. So basically you could get 5% on a number north or south of here.

Christ, surely it has to go higher from here?!

Unless you got a horrible buy (like 224p) you shouldn't be selling at 208p. The VWAP is 216p at present. That's then the lowest price you'll be offered. Up to 225p (ish)

Not taking it.

Sits way behind NAV.

Takeover looms.

Basically.

Using Whitbread as a basis our TO will be 238p as of today (10% over VWAP)

I'm going to avoid talking about the war this morning.

I agree with Basil, the price looks held down significantly. Undoubtedly there is a game afoot.