Member Info for Ant1986

Anyone worked out the II swindle yet?

Looks to me like...

30% stock went out on loan (nearly every ii) to a linked entity, which then pays them a set interest rate. Entity has sold shares for no gain and paid no tax. MM has a load of shares to sell below market value.

II's buy them back and then repeat.

Any advances?

Seav also thinks...

"And re CNEs long term view - CNE has cash to do sizable acquisitions - can't find any other London listed E&P who has the flexibility and balance sheet of doing an acquisition of upto $1bn and still have a strong balance sheet and market cap equivalent to cash. Current cash flows from just Egypt assets is what has got the market unexcited and hence market is pricing CNE with that boredom of cash flows of course unless CNE can get much higher FCFs.

What CNEs management team does with the north sea assets sale cash is what will define whether CNEs worth holding long term aside from the cash return side of the story. And long term for people can be over a week, month or a year. CNE has got some serious exploration prospects in Suriname and Mauritania. Lots of things to look forward to but sadly all can't be executed within a few weeks imo?"

Genl cash is £200m and trades at £413m

GKP cash is £146m and trades at £437m

Neither have the track record we do or are in the FTSE250.

Our valuation is utterly insane.

Furthermore, Pharos energy has $28.4m cash and trades at £133m!

What's the discount on their assets producing under 10k boepd?!

Ours, at approaching 40k, is 100% discount. Zero. Nothing.

And the other clever thing you managed to do was mention the incoming payments being used on Egypt without mentioning the cash out, if that's how you choose to see it.

You've also tried to say there isn't $500m cash still in the company post TO.

And you fail to mention the mcap and share price will drop in accordance with the TO but get rid of loads of stale old II's.

The timing of these ' intellectuals' giving their thoughts is very suspicious.

Thanks for not highlighting any positive.

So inflation is 7% and let's imagine we make no money and all assets are zero.

$1040 cash + $76m from north Sea +$130m on balance sheet (because in your world the drilling is worth zero too).

Senegal is $100m and North Sea future payments -let's say $80m per year too.

And if you think the oil price is coming down and those valuations above are too lofty, then your inflation argument is dead and our cash position CAN then buy assets at depressing prices.

You're ridiculous in your assessment. I'd understand caution at 270p a share because that's nearing full fat.

A buyout here assumes no value in nothing but cash. And no matter how much you hate Egypt, those assets are still worth something. Just over a longer horizon than some like.

Anyone else know a FTSE 250 company valued below cash?

It's about who sells. This TO is aimed at II's and major holders. If you're happy to sell now why didn't you sell two weeks ago?

The issue is tax and that's why we're being valued 20-30% below a fairer valuation.

India seems to have turned its back on the US, which was a huge motivation for paying us back.

Meanwhile, @1.3 dollar/pound - we're now trading below cash and near enough £1 below NAV.

Pass, not a clue. Though given the volume and price I assume they are totally clear.

And if you did only have 1,000 shares and 195p was the OK price then you're an idiot, ha-ha! ;)

I think pi's and II's see this differently.

II's with large holdings face big tax deductions and really need to sell out via tender, or pay 32% tax on dividend. After holding for years, especially as the new company mcap post will be much smaller, it's very important. If the SP is higher they would have to compete with us lot also tendering. Not to mention ESG issues.

I personally see this going on a run north post tender, especially with $200m buybacks. But the ii's would need possibly 32% from here to offset tax liability. Sort of.

Including a takeover.

A FTSE 250 company trading below cash with a track record of returning £5bn to shareholders.

Even if you fire sold the assets you could get 50/60p a share out of it with a bid of 230p. So many oil companies with massive debt holdings and declining fields get way more premium than Capricorn. I don't get it, hence buying/holding.

Most active week in a year and a half.

They have suspended buybacks until after the TO.

It hasn't really found a level since the cash landed.

We are definitely a sitting duck for a takeover though, would now suit the directors too, few million made and no selling in the open market.

That's a view I usually have but I do have to sit back and think, would we ever have got our money back without the II's being involved? Not so sure.

The price is depressing though.

Is that Aberdeen are offloading at anything over 195p, should be clear by VWAP time otherwise they will damage the TO for all. The flip slide is that someone is clearly buying in equal measure.

I sincerely hope the SP moves up to a point whereby it's possible to think about the TO but it's not worth taking down here. Even at 5% on top.

It looks like someone is offloading a big stake but that equally means a new holder has entered.

It's not all doom and gloom in my view.

Has appeared on the hourly chart, £3 is next ;)

You can tender and then the market tanks post date and you're out at whatever the VWAP is (like hell it won't be massively manipulated). Total gamble accepting tender.