Member Info for andypa

We should get an Eton update around the 12th Feb.

We should have the new UK clinical lab open before the end of Feb and the US lab open in April. Accreditation will take approx another 2 quarters.

From last nights presentation, it sounds like we are ready to announce contracts with pharma companies for parsortix use in pharma drug trials, testing for PD-L1. (we are only liquid bio company that can do this). We don't have to wait for accreditation to do this. This contract news could come anytime in the next 6 weeks.

The $8bn purchase of Grail by Illumina will have really shaken up the liquid biopsy space. The whole sector is now in the spotlight and getting the recognition it deserves.

I was previously definitely of the mind that only post-FDA would Angle come into play. I would now be surprised if there were not high-level discussions in many board rooms along the lines of we can't afford to be left behind who can we buy ?

" Galleri (Grail) is expected to launch commercially in 2021 as a multi-cancer, laboratory developed test for early cancer detection from blood. "

Ironically Allumina could really do with buying AGL. If they used Grail to detect cancer they could use parsortix to monitor it and test drugs on captured cancer cells. At the moment Grail is not offering a compelling test as very few places would be able to do anything for you if Galleri says we found cancer. A scan may not even be able to find the cancer.

Illumina, Abbott, Qiagen, Philips etc etc must all now be looking at us. Who is going to be the first to blink ?

GRAIL’s test can detect more than 50 cancers across all stages, with a very low false positive rate of less than one percent. When a cancer signal is detected, our test can identify where in the body the cancer is located with high accuracy.

Grail has filed to go public. The company DOES NOT have a product or revenue yet -------$6bn

Grail’s biggest investor is DNA machine maker Illumina, and Amazon’s Jeff Bezos is also an investor.

$6bn ............This is unbelievable news........................................

Just goes to show list in America, get a great name, sell a dream and get a $6bn valuation.............

For the share price to be static for so long it and not move post the good news last night it would appear that a large sell order being worked.

When it's complete I would expect the share price to quickly move up into the 60's.

A Nasdaq listing post FDA approval could well see a £1bn market cap as the potential for the parsortix platform becomes undeniable. Once you realise what the parsortix platform can do and what that means over the next 5-10 yrs for cancer diagnostics then it is very hard to put a fig on its value.

The ultimate goal for the platform is being used as a screening for all cancers just like the PSA test is now.

It is hard to imagine that a big player won't want to be in control of parsortix .

SS you just mentioned the 24k bopd from S4. I presume that was accumulative over multiple zones.

Why can't we produce now from multiple zones now ???

Even with the disaster of the last hedge if I was on the BOD I would be discussing doing another hedge.

A hedge at these levels for delivery in 2021 would secure enough cashflow to

Invest $25m in Singida
$10m divs
$15m in West Kenya
$5m in NL exploration

That is a tempting prospect

I suspect that any loan to fund Singida will have a hedging agreement attached.

Exact Sciences is an interesting comparison - Basically no sales in 2014 (FDA approval Aug 2014), 2015 $40m, 2016 $100m.

Taking FDA as a given otherwise there is no point investing here, I wonder how many more capital raises there will be and how quickly will sales ramp up. We desperately need to sign up multiple big partners post-FDA.

FDA approved blood test for cancer should be front page news around the world !!!!

Best guess is £2m sales in 2021 and £25m in 2022
Another £25m capital raise required

Thanks Dodger and Theoryman. It is clearly a lot more complicated than I thought.

The wording in the RNS for feb 2016 is then totally misleading?

Further to the KRG's Ministry of Natural Resources ("MNR") press release of 1 February 2016, this payment is being made on the basis of the Company's monthly contractual revenue entitlement under the Shaikan Production Sharing Contract ("PSC") for Shaikan crude oil exports in January 2016 of US$5.8 million gross.

Did the BOD renegotiate a worse deal compared to that in place in 2016 ?

Jan 2016 oil price $30.7, production 37k bopd and $5.8m gross received in Feb 16.

Last month similar figs produced and POO and we only received $2.7m gross ???????? Did we get part payment ??? Does not mention in RNS as per PSC entitlement.

Another poster previously mentioned we received much less than he was forecasting ????????????????

Further to the KRG's Ministry of Natural Resources ("MNR") press release of 1 February 2016, this payment is being made on the basis of the Company's monthly contractual revenue entitlement under the Shaikan Production Sharing Contract ("PSC") for Shaikan crude oil exports in January 2016 of US$5.8 million gross.

The average oil price in June was approx. $40, production 36k, so based on historic payments I’m expecting $12m net to GKP.

Anyone expecting any significantly different from the above?

The average oil price in Dec 2015 was $38, production in Dec 2015 was approx. 37k bopd and we got paid $12m net.

Jan 2016 Rns
Gulf Keystone Petroleum, a leading independent operator and producer in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq, is pleased to confirm that a gross payment of US$15 million (US$12 million net to Gulf Keystone) has been received by the Company for Shaikan crude oil export sales.

This payment satisfies the Company's invoice for the month of December 2015 submitted to the Kurdistan Regional Government's Ministry of Natural Resources ("MNR").

At this share price the KRG should buy us. We would be virtually free to them.

They could write off $73m debt, write off $400m of sunk costs that normally get repaid through oil sales, bank net cash of c $60m and in the future they not need to worry about paying GKP.

It's a no brainer.

Looks like Astaris have purchased nearly another 1.5m shares.

Everhopeful any other big changes ??

BB

You are correct there is a further $18m a year in G&A to add on.

Also $3.9 is on the high side as it is based on 30k bopd , when we are currently producing c 38k. So, I still think we will finish the year with $100m in the bank.

Anybody got a link for the price of GKP's $100m bond ? I can't find it.

Genel's bond is trading at a 20% discount, at 80.

Also I'm not a big fan of share buy backs., and hate debt. The $50m buyback should have been used to reduce the $100m debt. Companies nowadays are obsessed with gearing , debt and buybacks. Very few seem to hold any rainy day fund.

2019 half year results webcast Sami was even talking about increasing the debt !!! He was challenged about the very expensive debt from a member of the audience who said that they should be reducing the debt levels . Sami disagreed.

Where has financial prudence gone. Approx every 8-10 years we have a crisis, you can't just extrapolate into the future without due regard.

Opex per barrel $3.9

40,000 bopd * 30 days * 3.9 = $4.7m monthly operating expenses

Which were covered by last months payment of $5.9m.

Reduce capex to a minimum, approx $40m committed for the rest of the year. Should finish this year with $100m in the bank.

That's a good place to be. GKP is in a strong position to ride this out.

Has anyone been keeping a track of how much each production well is approximately producing ? Just trying to get better visibility into how we are going to reach the magic 55k bopd. The timeline for this does seem to be getting pushed every quarter.

Have ESP's been installed in SH 5, 10 and 11 yet ?

Many thanks

Surreyscot

Great post, may I also add net cash of $160m in the bank and the mkt cap is only £160m ish.

My one concern is the gas situation. I had assumed the result of SH-9 was bad news as the long term plan of gas re-injection to maintain field pressure and production rates was now defunct, Feels like we are now back to square one and have to draw up a whole new plan.

Do we now need to build a load of infrastructure to sell the gas or is this straight forward ?

I have been a buyer over the last few days and this reminds me of Dragon oil back in 2008 ish when it got hammered and was trading at cash value. It went from £1.20 to £4 in about 6 weeks when a buyer came in.

Many thanks for your thoughts.