Ben Richardson, CEO at SulNOx, confident they can cost-effectively decarbonise commercial shipping. Watch the video here.
"1% of the 14 million US kidney/diabetes market over the next three years" I think they come up with this as a sales pitch to use when they are raising more cash.
The problem is it would not appear that they are expecting a significant sales ramp-up in this calendar year.
I'm wondering whether the barrier to PCP's ordering the test is that we need to be integrated into the hospital's healthcare software first for the PCP to easily order the test and secondly for Ki to read the patient records ? We certainly now have insurance coverage of millions, so that is not the issue.
What they need to do is half their costs and extend the runway, giving them time to prove that all the recent announcements can make a difference ie FDA, Vector, EverSana, KDIGO , Atrium/Wake Forest integration in Q4 etc
VA integration sounds like a bust.
They were only talking about single-digit millions in cost cutting though, so maybe $5m. Which takes cash burn to roughly $9m per quarter. Serious dilution is coming if they cannot start ramping up paid for testing.
Medicare sounds like it is now due Q1 2024, a year later than initially suggested.
"IT WILL BECOME STANDARD OF CARE OVERNIGHT"
It should, but there is a myriad of administrative barriers in the US that make the commercialisation difficult, time-consuming and expensive. Let's hope that the press / clamour for the AVA600 is sufficient to cut through most of the barriers quickly. The major barriers to adoption are getting medicare, insurance coverage and educating physicians to administer it.
H2 rev guidance has been dropped, now forecasting breakeven in H2 rather than profit.
Clearly the ramp-up is still progressing slower than they would like. They are running low on cash.
Q4 will be crucial to proving to the market they can deliver and either avoid raising cash or doing so at a reasonable rate / discount. Fingers crossed.
Shareholders should not underestimate the complexity and difficulty in ramping up production, particularly as we are the first company other than Brembo to do this. This complexity will help protect from competition and mean margins will stay high for a good while.
When we start to deliver, this will be a very valuable company with unique know-how.
"Customer arrears have been reduced over the past six weeks. Accordingly, the Board maintains its 2023 revenue expectations."
Since the last update in June production has continued to improve - forecasts are still in place.
Cash is obviously getting tight. They may have to take on some short-term debt, but nothing significant, as long as production rates continue to improve. This is a high-margin business, so increased sales will quickly help to improve the cash position.
Selling MRI machines is a mature slow growth market. I'm not an expert, but I imagine the machines from the big 3 are all pretty similar with their own strengths and weaknesses.
However, Xenoview allows you to differentiate your product from the competition. I imagine the Philips collaboration has sent shock waves to GE and Siemens and they will be having their own meetings with Polearean soon.
Who is going to blink first and make the first offer................
FDA approval should help with getting those partnership deals signed, national Medicare coverage and informing clinical guidelines.
Hopefully "informing clinical guidelines" means if a patient comes in who is diabetic etc then part of their treatment/assessment protocol would be to automatically have the Kidney IntelX test.
The sales figs are really poor. I had assumed £1m rev in Q1 and £4m in Q2.
Clearly, we are nowhere near the £2m per mth run rate? Producing the discs is clearly very very complex. On the plus side not something the Chinese are going to be able to copy easily.
SB I'm expecting poor Q3 sales, around 1000 test sales. However, if they can give a forecast for Q4 that is much better (>1300) then that should be a positive. Need to get FDA / Medicare in the few months resolved. I wonder how much medicare that is on a case by case basis is holding back sales?
Insurance coverage is progressing with c 20m people insured excluding the VA. Having more information on Eversana partnership and the forecast impact on sales would be good.
I don't think that the FDA can delay again, we are now at a yes or no point......fingers crossed
PF Builder
I think profit for 2023 will be approx $45-50m, with a AISC of $1250, 85k oz produced, hedges to work off and Q1 being a "steady quarter".
With no mishaps and currently a $150m market cap there is potential for the share price to double this year.