Member Info for andypa

At last some serious cost-cutting.

I think the plan is to reduce costs to about $5m in calendar Q1 and then reduce cash burn to around $2-3m per quarter by the year end as revenue increases.

Need to raise $15m ! Not easy in this market !

I expect Tues to be grim.

The one piece of news that could make a real difference is Wake Forest integration and uptake news. Not holding my breath though. MS testing should be ramping up as it is now fully integrated, but is still only running about 100 tests per mth? I'm guessing that a lot of costs over the last 2 yrs have been related to IT and real world evidence.

MS are big shareholders so a clever move would be to add the test to the standard care requirements for all their PCP's when a patient has xyz. That would make a big difference.

The question is have SCE been able to ramp up production this quarter ? If so debt funding or a small equity raise should be no problem or not required at all.

If not and there are still production issues then 15p is likely to come into view quickly.

Renx seems to have entered a doom loop. The simplest way to stop the loop is to announce a major cost cutting exercise,

giving them a runway to show they can sell the test. If they don't do it proactively, any raise will forced it upon them.

There are now enough things in place now to make this test a success, just need 12 mths to prove it.

MS could step in and transform the situation by using guidelines to its PCP's to start using the test.

KatStrangler - on the positive side the DNL share price was approximately 10p when the offer of 27p arrived :o)

The insurers can see the high-level benefits and savings that Ki can bring, which we all know about. Getting an insurer on board which is a difficult thing to do is now no problem for us.

I believe we are having problems gaining commercial traction due to a combination of the below

Education of PCP's on the benefits Ki and being to easily order it

PCP's knowing the test exists

Ordering the test when it is not integrated into the hospital system.

Ki reading the patient records when it is not integrated into the hospital's electronic record system

I'm surprised that MS sales have not started to accelerate now they are on a full commercial model and everything is fully integrated and set up. An RNS stating MS has now started to issue practice alerts and is part of the standard of practice, would be very good news.

Let's hope for Wake Forest news in the next few weeks.

There is a hope that one of the big pharma companies might start promoting Ki to help accelerate the sale of their Kidney drugs. "Ki leads to 4 fold increase in the prescribing of kidney drugs"

"1% of the 14 million US kidney/diabetes market over the next three years" I think they come up with this as a sales pitch to use when they are raising more cash.

The problem is it would not appear that they are expecting a significant sales ramp-up in this calendar year.

I'm wondering whether the barrier to PCP's ordering the test is that we need to be integrated into the hospital's healthcare software first for the PCP to easily order the test and secondly for Ki to read the patient records ? We certainly now have insurance coverage of millions, so that is not the issue.

What they need to do is half their costs and extend the runway, giving them time to prove that all the recent announcements can make a difference ie FDA, Vector, EverSana, KDIGO , Atrium/Wake Forest integration in Q4 etc

VA integration sounds like a bust.

They were only talking about single-digit millions in cost cutting though, so maybe $5m. Which takes cash burn to roughly $9m per quarter. Serious dilution is coming if they cannot start ramping up paid for testing.

Medicare sounds like it is now due Q1 2024, a year later than initially suggested.

"IT WILL BECOME STANDARD OF CARE OVERNIGHT"

It should, but there is a myriad of administrative barriers in the US that make the commercialisation difficult, time-consuming and expensive. Let's hope that the press / clamour for the AVA600 is sufficient to cut through most of the barriers quickly. The major barriers to adoption are getting medicare, insurance coverage and educating physicians to administer it.

Unhooked - just scroll down - $24.7m cash 30th June

Zeus 2023 rev forecast

H1 -£3.3m actual

Q3 - £3.7m

Q4 - £6m

Total - £13m

I hope they are right.

Most of the equipment to hit £50m run rate has now been installed per Zeus.

H2 rev guidance has been dropped, now forecasting breakeven in H2 rather than profit.

Clearly the ramp-up is still progressing slower than they would like. They are running low on cash.

Q4 will be crucial to proving to the market they can deliver and either avoid raising cash or doing so at a reasonable rate / discount. Fingers crossed.

Shareholders should not underestimate the complexity and difficulty in ramping up production, particularly as we are the first company other than Brembo to do this. This complexity will help protect from competition and mean margins will stay high for a good while.

When we start to deliver, this will be a very valuable company with unique know-how.

A big day today for Renx per Wan's comments on advfn.

Getting Medicare (over 65's) will be huge as it covers 2/3 of our potential customers.

"Customer arrears have been reduced over the past six weeks. Accordingly, the Board maintains its 2023 revenue expectations."

Since the last update in June production has continued to improve - forecasts are still in place.

Cash is obviously getting tight. They may have to take on some short-term debt, but nothing significant, as long as production rates continue to improve. This is a high-margin business, so increased sales will quickly help to improve the cash position.

£300k = things are now on track and production issues are being resolved.

I'm expecting a quarterly update tomorrow :o) Will show a production rate of over 25koz and debt reducing.

Debt reduction won't look so good as VAT refund was received after quarter end.

Selling MRI machines is a mature slow growth market. I'm not an expert, but I imagine the machines from the big 3 are all pretty similar with their own strengths and weaknesses.

However, Xenoview allows you to differentiate your product from the competition. I imagine the Philips collaboration has sent shock waves to GE and Siemens and they will be having their own meetings with Polearean soon.

Who is going to blink first and make the first offer................

FDA approval should help with getting those partnership deals signed, national Medicare coverage and informing clinical guidelines.

Hopefully "informing clinical guidelines" means if a patient comes in who is diabetic etc then part of their treatment/assessment protocol would be to automatically have the Kidney IntelX test.

The sales figs are really poor. I had assumed £1m rev in Q1 and £4m in Q2.

Clearly, we are nowhere near the £2m per mth run rate? Producing the discs is clearly very very complex. On the plus side not something the Chinese are going to be able to copy easily.

I'm probably wrong with the website I got the age from out of date.