Member Info for andypa

Aged 49, good experience etc. Seems just what we need. The Polx top table was not looking the most dynamic......

I'm guessing there is a big seller in the background. This will pop 1 or 2p in a week once they are cleared.

SB I'm expecting poor Q3 sales, around 1000 test sales. However, if they can give a forecast for Q4 that is much better (>1300) then that should be a positive. Need to get FDA / Medicare in the few months resolved. I wonder how much medicare that is on a case by case basis is holding back sales?

Insurance coverage is progressing with c 20m people insured excluding the VA. Having more information on Eversana partnership and the forecast impact on sales would be good.

I don't think that the FDA can delay again, we are now at a yes or no point......fingers crossed

PF Builder

I think profit for 2023 will be approx $45-50m, with a AISC of $1250, 85k oz produced, hedges to work off and Q1 being a "steady quarter".

With no mishaps and currently a $150m market cap there is potential for the share price to double this year.

I think we will need $50m more in funding to reach cashflow break even i.e. 2 yrs away.

After that, you are looking at a billion $ company in the making with no competition.

It would be much less painful if we were getting diluted at £9 not 90p....................

Once we start to produce significant positive cash flow then I think the market will re-rate us significantly.

In this risk-off market, any uncertainty results in a significant markdown. First gold pore should be the first de-risking step, the second should be the ramp-up in production and the third positive cash flow. Once we have achieved these with POG at similar levels 20p should come into sight.

SB - I do think that FDA approval is an important milestone, but for some companies, it can be a binary make-or-break decision.

However, with insures, the VA and potentially medicare in the bag before FDA it isn't of such a critical nature.

SB, I'm not too worried about FDA anymore. They have a habit of looking for reasons to delay a decision because they have such a backlog. FDA becomes increasingly less important every month. I do hope though that medicare approval is not linked to FDA approval.

I believe FDA dropped the bomb this week and those that were involved the in the placing were reassured good news was weeks away. Hence we were even able to successfully undertake a raise.

Obviously, FDA approval is important, but the longer the delay continues the less important FDA approval will become. We already have the VA and insurers signed up /signing up. Renx has always been focused on insurance coverage and not just waiting for FDA approval. Medicare news hopefully in the next 3 mths will be the big one

They will be working double time to ensure that we can RNS the first gold pour before the mth end. The ramp-up to full production will likely take another 2-3 mths, fingers crossed.

I would still expect rev to be minimal - maybe $1.4m for last quarter. With Medicare / VA / FDA that figure could be substantially higher maybe $4m a quarter by the end of this year.

Yes, 90p.

Nice to get it out of the way, otherwise post FDA approval that's all the market would have focused on and the share price would not have had the positive move we are all hoping for.

I would really like an idea of the mthly rate of tests. Post medicare approval it is likely to ramp up big time. I wonder how many manual approvals medicare is willing / can do a week at the moment ?

Hounddog you are right a proper set-up would cost way over $100m.

However, I have the feeling that we will not want to commit ourselves to that, but at the same time would need to do something. My guess is we are waiting for the right offer to come along $$$.

Potentially crippling ourselves trying to build a massive new mine could lead to disaster or being taken out at a distressed value. A "Singida 2" might just be the answer and give us enough time to discover 5m oz !!

I think that towards the end of this year (if all going smoothly) they will announce a "Singida 2" to be set up at Ramula, costing about $60m to start mining in 2026.

Shanta's hedging has always been a disaster, but seems to be a requirement of the loans.

Thank heavens it is only 15k oz.

8k at $1900 and 7k at c$1750. I imagine that we will clear half of each hedge this quarter.

Close enough to the current POG to still not be that big a deal............

Looks like the reason for the q4 miss was lower grades

The VA was proving to be very difficult to integrate into and gain traction, so this news is transformational for VA sales.
It is starting to feel as though Renx may well fulfil its promise and news like this together with FDA etc would support an equity raise at higher valuations.

I think POLX will JV and/or could get bought out by one of the big MRI players looking to differentiate their product in a mature market. Also, there is also Bracco waiting in the wings.

They are only going to focus on 100 hospitals initially so no huge expense is required to focus on them.

The key issue is insurance.

Patients will not want to have the test if it is not covered by their insurance. Hospitals will not buy the machine if patients are not covered by their insurance.

RH now needs to present a road map of how national insurance coverage is going to be obtained. This can be a very long and painful process.