Member Info for andypa

Excellent presentation - will be buying more. Well worth watching - final stages of big pharma contracts :) These new kidney drugs and our testing go hand in hand :)

Presentation 8pm tonight - https://investors.renalytix.com/events/event-details/42nd-annual-william-blair-growth-stock-conference.

Shorting makes much less sense with bio and Renalytix having already been hammered, so hopefully, shorts starting to close. The last thing the shorters want to do is close into strength.

This is a good summary of Renx

https://www.reddit.com/r/Renalytix/comments/v52jn0/rnlx_investment_thesis_nov_2021_version_slightly/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

KidneyIntelX, a bioprognostic test for assessing risk of CKD progression, risk-stratified
individuals for kidney, heart failure, and death outcomes in CANVAS.

• Individuals scored as high-risk seemed to derive more of benefit from treatment with
canagliflozin vs. placebo.

• These findings may serve to increase adoption of under-utilized therapies for cardiorenal risk
reduction in patients with diabetic kidney disease

https://kidney360.asnjournals.org/content/kidney360/early/2022/05/18/KID.0002172022.full.pdf?with-ds=yes

canagliflozin = invokana = janssen = Johnson & Johson

Thanks ShearC and Silverblade, sorry for the misleading post

Icahn school of medicine buys 9m shares in Renx - insiders buying more :) Following news a big surge in ADR price not really reflected here. US markets closed today.

https://newsfilter.io/a/f23fad5ce6cce2cc1afbcc04758cc600

“Systematically identifying high-risk patients with DKD under primary care at the earliest stages of their disease is essential for improving outcomes, quality of life, and reducing health care cost in the population with kidney disease,” said David C. Thomas, MD, Professor of Medicine, Medical Education and Rehabilitation and Human Performance and Interim System Chair, Department of Medicine, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai. “We now have the tools, including care navigation, and pharmacy and dietician support, in place to do more than manage the transition to dialysis or transplant. We believe this program will enable advanced support for our primary care teams to help improve the long-term outlook and quality of life for our patients with diabetic kidney disease.”

Obviously, Abbot knows all about AGL with the PathVysion HER-2 DNA FISH Probe kits being used for for ANGLE's ANG-002 FDA study.

Dibs61 - I did let out a purr when I read the link you provided. Let the bidding war begin. AGL gone before x mas.

No sales revenue is irrelevant as whoever controls AGL will control the future backbone all liquid biopsy testing for the next 10 yrs. We deliver the intact CTC's and everyone else can then build diagnostic tests on top......................

AGL just got FDA after a very long wait.

They submitted in Sept 2020. Renx submitted Aug 2020, so we must be getting close. If it was going to be rejected it would already have happened !! Keep the faith.

The key is whether they are now seeing a sustained ramp-up in testing and are willing to start issuing guidance.
Jan - Mar quarter is going to be around $1m. Management will obviously have a good idea of the expected rev in this quarter as we are nearly 2/3 through it. All will be revealed in about 3 weeks.

Not issuing guidance to avoid tanking the share price ship has sailed ........ and we have raised money, so I think they will start guiding this quarter hopefully.

Revenue for Jan to Mar quarter will be around $1.1m I would guess.

The key question is are they willing to provide guidance for April - June quarter ??? First VA sales have been made.

It is worth noting that something like 75% of renals addressable market is people aged over 65 so getting medicare coverage will be a big milestone.

The way the share price is falling we are being priced for failure. Likely to be some 25%+ up days over the next 6 months as positive news hits. The big question is how low do we fall to first ???

In a market like this words no longer count, until we show sales this is a jam tomorrow stock which when everything is crashing is not where anyone wants to be.

Everything I have read and researched points to this being a big winner, but sales traction is taking longer than hoped, maybe 6 mths behind analysts' forecasts.

Getting medicare, FDA and a big pharma deal over the next 12mths and an end to the bear market should transform the share price as sales start to accelerate.

https://kidney.zoom.us/rec/play/599vUwoJq8lubZgxhEIN30wj6GCHMisyBVp6W7zPil1z_uY3AnMtOLGarWF0Li9-eAqD4MRsniM8T1qy.x7ZI68ZKOuX0vLOw?continueMode=true&_x_zm_rtaid=sI_Yyhc0RR-hpnjVBH3Z4w.1651102360352.48860b7c301398ffc9c04ead9de074fa&_x_zm_rhtaid=535

SLF - you are correct POLX machine works with all brands and is independent of the MRI machine.

The point I am making very poorly is that say GE bought POLX then they may strategically decide that the POLX machine is only available to those who already own or buy a GE MRI giving them a competitive advantage. GE already have a worldwide sales force and maintenance contracts etc so would be a nice add on. Buying POLX would be pocket change for GE.

Accountant - I agree one of the big 3 MRI suppliers controlling polx would not be good for patients and limit access. I just think that strategically if I was one of the big 3 and polx receives FDA clearance I would want to own it!

Alternatively, as pjm noted Bracco are going to want to have their say as well !!

There is a fair chance one of the big MRI machine suppliers General Electric, Siemens, and Philips will buy Polarean.

WHY ??

Because whichever of the big 3 acquires us will be able to differentiate itself from the competition. Nice to able to say that they can offer enhanced pulmonary imaging etc !! I'm no expert, but I imagine that selling MRI machines is now a fairly stable low growth business., but then some new tech arrives ......

In the next 3 -6 mths there is a reasonable chance of FDA and a strategic partnership. On a 3-5 year basis a reasonable expectation of $100m plus in sales.

Down a quite astonishing 32p on no news. It would not surprise me if a big shorter got nervous as the chart had started to look better and decided to push the share price lower.

Any revenue forecasts for next year ? Q1 this year looks around $3-$4m based on MS. The big question is next years revenue - $50m ?? $50m would mean the current mkt cap was approx 8* next years revenue !!! That's still not cheap ??

Any thoughts ??

I think it was a case that POLX had a fixed approval date with the FDA unlike most other companies Renal / AGL etc and therefore they had to approve or CRL, they couldn't just ask more questions to delay. The easy option for the FDA was to kick the decision into the long grass and issue a CRL, as they had managed to do the work to approve it. Also being a small company we didn't have a team of lobbyists to help influence the decision and make us a priority.

Looking at the price action it feels like we have a bid coming.