Member Info for andypa

I would be very surprised if Eric or Leslie would buy any more shares in the open market. I imagine already far too high a percentage of their net wealth is tied up in SHG.

Approaching $100m in total ($60m-$70m by previous owners) has been spent on drilling so far in WK and has been incredibly successful. $100m should be the start price for WK.

$40m has /is been spent at Singida. There must be approx $60m of equipment etc at NL.

It would appear that $200m should be the start price of negotiations and then it's up to Eric to demonstrate why more should be paid. It is not difficult to come up with another additional $100m. $300m valuation is very reasonable ie approx 25p.

Yes SB, James mentioned it in his opening remarks near the beginnning of the web call.

Fingers crossed for Medicare / FDA / partnership by the end of Mar. A partnership might well depend on getting FDA. Randy's questions with regards medicare were very enlightening.

Still, a long way to go, but very feel a lot more comfortable than a few weeks ago. Potentially a cash raise around May at a lot higher share price post FDA etc.

527 tests in Sept would suggest that momentum is picking up

Maybe 1800 test in Q2 (Oct-Dec) of which 80% are billable = $1.44m rev

Starting to gain traction

From H2 interims WK - NPV8% US$340m, IRR 110 %

An agreed offer of between $300-$400m for the whole company would seem to be about right

Unhooked - start from 16m 55 secs and you will hear the magic $2.9m

https://edge.media-server.com/mmc/p/y3zwhkuk

Unhooked - it's all pretty grim here. Q4 / full year results were disclosed in the last quarter conf call - approx $2.9m rev for the year. Seeing as Q1 has now finished they could easily give us a steer on these numbers. I would guess that rev will be c $1m for Q1. Q2 (Oct-Dec) is crucial to say the least.

Ki has automatically started recommending patients to the PCP's that would benefit from having the test, so that should have accelerated adoption!

I have watched the recording.

No new information. Just reiterating their focus on the areas that they have insurance coverage. It is a case of now proving the business model in these areas, ramping up sales and hoping that can be achieved before the cash runs out.

Realistically in order to achieve that they need to half their current cost base, the $2m a quarter trim is not going to make much difference. Say $8m a quarter of expenditure and $3m in sales in calendar yr Q1 would give us time to prove this is a viable growing business going forward.

$8m a quarter expenditure would still cover approx 50 employees etc etc

SB- I think Medicare is likely this year and FDA H1 next year. Medicare is more important. I listened to the Q3 results presentation again. The automation that was talked about is for an automated prompt to PCP's that a patient would be suitable / benefit from the KiX test. A patient won't want the £950 test unless their insurance covers it though. So I think medicare / insurance coverage / automation / real world evidence etc etc should all help drive much higher sales. We need to start gaining sales traction soon.

Oct/Nov/ Dec quarter sales need to be at least $2m and should be achievable with the ins coverage we now have.

SB- It is all very confusing, but per last quarter's results presentation we are hoping to get "medicare coverage, medicare payment this calendar year," Medicare covers the over 65's which is where the bulk of the potential tests are targeted.

I think there are 4 stages to go through to get Medicare - below is an extract from March 2020 presentation

Expected Events
Q1 20 • CPT code 0105U
• $950 price

Q2 20e • CMS contract & provider number
• MolDx coverage submission

Q4 20e • Draft coverage policy & public
meeting presentation

Q2 21e • Coverage policy final

SB - We ramped up sales staff numbers too quickly when there were still many administrative hurdles left to clear. I would guess we have culled the dead wood from the sales team. I'm sure I read somewhere that there were 98 employees in Renx which shocked me. At least a half of these need to go. The current cost savings don't seem high enough......

The recent RNS confirms the narrowing of focus to the areas of potential high demand and insurance coverage.
At this stage, I would cut costs to the bone and concentrate on areas where we have ins converage, get FDA, get Medicare and then raise money once we have a proven model.

Just bought some - They will need cash or a licencing deal in the next 6 mths, but I see sales doubling to about £8m over the next 12mths, which should help with any cash raise licencing deal. Sept R&D should give me more details...

Totally agree unhooked however - "This program was designed to address the evidence requirements of payers, regulators, clinicians, and guideline setting bodies" ie helps with achieving FDA approval, medicare etc etc

I'm guessing that FDA pushed back last year and requested proof that Ki has real world benefits and that has caused the delay.

The hope is that the Ki can identify high-risk patients, which in turn leads them to be automatically asked to come in for a test. Say 1 in 5 them have a high score meaning they are at risk kidney failer. We then automatically contact AZ or whomever we have signed a partnership with to potentially prescribe them some drugs to stop them from escalating to kidney failure/dialysis at a later date. BOOM everyone wins....................

SB - by the sounds of it at this stage the sales force aren't selling, but very much acting in an administrative role to remove barriers in each health care system so we can start selling tests. Clearly, the complexity of getting KI integrated into a health care system, so that a PCP can order a test involves a lot of hurdles.

The automation alluded to in the results presentation (3min.30sec)sounds good if it means that the Ai automatically selects patients that it thinks are high risk and flags them to be sent a letter to come in for a test. That would really up testing.

Wan on advfn is posting lots of useful insights into potential partnerships.

What we really need is a Telegram group for Renx.

From the Q3 results earnings call - from 6min 40 sec

"Most importantly utility data is showing that PCP's are 7 times more likely to prescribe guideline-directed therapies to high-risk patients when KidneyIntelx risk assessment was introduced into practice."

That statement seems key to signing those partnerships...........

We have currently $45m in the bank and are burning $15m a quarter. That $15m needs to come down as promised last quarter.

Sales are v disappointing. I was expecting $1m. No growth in a growth stock is a problem...............

Guidance today is required as they already know this quarter's figs ........ They are forecasting from presentation 10,000 tests this calendar year. If I'm reading it correctly 3300 tests performed to date. However, at this stage tests and revenue are not directly correlated.

I'm hoping commercialisation is 6-9mths behind schedule with the recent evidence base real-world figs helping FDA and persuading PCP's to start prescribing the test.

Medicare / FDA and potential partnerships in the next 6 mths should help drive sales....

Miavoce - good point.

No doubt AGL management have spent years plotting the commercial launch of parsortix and have investigated all potential options. An interesting question then is if we signed a deal with Abbott tomorrow how long until we could start seeing parsortix deployed and sales made.

AN seems to have actively down played any significant revenue in the next 2 years !

The question then becomes should AGL have started offering a LDT when they applied for FDA as a strategic decision to start the process of getting reimbursement codes. However, I don't think you can offer a LDT without a certified lab etc ...............

It does feel like AGL have had a primary focus on FDA which was a key milestone, but in reality, was not stopping the sale/ marketing of the test.

Also will AGL be launching a dedicated website for private payers to order the test and get results ??? I can imagine that there would be some off label use ie private payers not just with MBC sending in blood samples. The cassette would be be optimised for MBC, but I think would still catch other CTC's !!

I think the private payer market could quite quickly ramp up with the right marketing.