Member Info for Android101

Think cpi will be pulled down with the whole market whatever. Maybe be a good short play but anything that's not growing falls into that category...

This just keeps going down no matter. FY for a bounce if fcf+. Load up under£2 imho

'Management plans to repay the 2025 Notes at maturity with a combination of cash in hand and drawings from the Glencore facility, and to refinance and simplify the Group's capital structure during the remainder of 2025'

The Group intends to set out a framework for capital returns and growth through inorganic opportunities following completion of the refinancing and appointment of a new CEO'

Paying down and servicing debt sorted. Financial gearing to support the new CEO next. Positives outweigh any negatives. Looks double bottom ish.

Shorts have less reason to stay imo

Market likes us lol

Nice

Good Cop, Bad Cop Strategy chat

In the room, the stage is set,

A dance of minds, a subtle threat.

One is kind, with gentle hand,

The other fierce, on shifting sand.

The good cop smiles, so calm, so sure,

His voice a balm, a quiet cure.

He seeks your trust, makes you feel seen,

Tells you the world is not so mean.

But lurking near, the bad cop stands,

With steely gaze and clenched demands.

His tone is harsh, his words are sharp,

His purpose clear, to leave a mark.

Together, they pull, they push, they sway,

Creating pressure, making you stay.

The good cop’s warmth, the bad cop’s threat,

A web of tension, tightly set.

But what is real, and what’s a show?

The truth is buried, soft below.

A clever play, a game of mind,

In this twisted world, truth’s hard to find.

And so, like traders in the market’s grip,

We play our parts, and never slip.

The strategies we use, the roles we play,

Are dances to help us find our way.

Ode to the Short Interest:

Oh, short interest, lurking in the deep,

With whispers and rumors, your promises creep.

In the shadows, you plot and you wait,

Hoping for panic, for stocks to deflate.

You whisper to investors, "Now is the time,

To sell what you’ve held for a dollar sublime."

But in the face of your scheming so sly,

You fail to foresee how the market may fly.

Through data and charts, your schemes you weave,

Trying to convince those who wish to believe.

“Sell now!” you urge, “Don’t be left behind,

The crash is assured, it’s all been outlined.”

Yet the price, oh the price, it refuses to fall,

In defiance, it rises, against your call.

Private hands hold steady, defiant and proud,

Ignoring your calls, standing tall in the crowd.

For each share that is sold, another is kept,

As short interest wanes, its plans intercept.

So here’s to the market, its dance and its jest,

A tale of patience, of tests and of trust.

In the end, no scheme can fully predict,

The will of the traders who stand in the thick.

For in this game, both wild and stark,

It's the long-term believers who leave the mark.

*FDP

'how long can reasonably TLW survive a low OP environment'

Think I read TLW breakeven is $48.

So $70, $80 $90 oil etc must give options for investment of free cashflow, noble drilling etc. New CEO and growth strategy is the tipping point. Whether that's the same thing as the kenya GDP and farm down process and financial gearing etc is unknown hence huge swings up and down in SP.

I got my orders and switching off for a couple of months. GLA

Ode to a Delayed Field Development Plan

Oh, plan that once was set with care,

Now stalled in papers, thin as air,

Your milestones far and dreams once bright,

Now linger long in endless night.

We charted paths with hope so clear,

Mapped out the future, year by year.

Yet here you sit, within the haze,

A tangled web of endless delays.

Oh, how we longed to see you grow,

To watch the rigs and drills below,

To watch the engines roar and hum,

But now, we wait for when you’ll come.

The meetings stack, the budgets shift,

The endless talk, the late-night lift.

Yet time is fickle, and so too is fate,

And so we wait, and wait, and wait.

Yet still, within this quiet pause,

Lies hope, though tangled in the laws.

For when you rise, as rise you must,

We'll break the chains and stir the dust.

So here’s to you, oh delayed plan,

May you yet stand, and boldly span

The dreams we’ve forged, the roads we’ll pave,

For in your wake, the future’s brave.

Trump needs $64 wti to breakeven on drill baby drill.

Saudi need $91 fiscal breakeven in 2025 (was $98 in 2024).

Think TLW nicely positioned imo

Oh mighty plan, so bold, precise,

A blueprint drawn beneath the skies,

Through geological depth you weave,

To find what earth would dare conceive.

In caverns dark, where oil resides,

You map the land, where treasure hides,

With seismic pulse, with data clear,

You guide the way, dispel the fear.

From drilling rig to pipeline's grace,

You chart the course, you set the pace,

The pumps that rise, the drills that spin,

All fall in line, as you begin.

Through rocky plains and desert wide,

Your vision cuts through rock and tide,

With engineers and workers skilled,

Each task you set, they will fulfill.

O plan, so steadfast in your scope,

You bring to life what once was hope.

A bounty deep beneath the crust,

In you, we place our faith and trust.

To capture power, force, and light,

To fuel the world through day and night,

You, oilfield guide, lead with might,

You are the spark, the future bright.

'we live in hope :)'

Think oil is a good place to be. Look at the battle commencing between the fed bureaucracy, media branded fascist oligarchs and puff coin. Could see your money disappear in flash in puff coin

A takeover or something similar could explain it.

Or the FDP and some regulatory collar.

Might have new ceo anytime soon?

By accident or design, the january 'delayed' lift will get $80 oil prices. RD is managing a free cashflow glide path up and to the right imho

Crikey Super, RG couldn't be any clearer. Bought the bonds and the equity. Not even sure how he was allowed to do that but that's ballsy communication in my book.

Hope Rahul leaves well and surprises to the upside on fcf end of month and FDP and new ceo with the growth strategy will speak very loud and clear.

I think TLW is preparing to pay a sustainable dividend. The story here is finally moving away from debt security imho

Yeah, huge spread on opening. Mechanics maybe lol. Someone at screwfix and option expiries I suppose

*$81 oil

Good find Gord

'The Kenyan government is currently evaluating the Final Field Development Plan (FDP) submitted by Tullow Oil. This comprehensive FDP outlines a strategic roadmap for the development of resources within Block 10BB and 13T license areas, as well as additional appraisal and exploration activities aimed at optimizing resource extraction within the designated development zone. The development strategy revolves around a well-structured, phased infrastructure-driven approach, commencing with the most sizable and technically advanced reservoirs. In order to achieve the production of first oil and support the initial production plateau, the Ngamia, Amosing, Twiga, and Ekales fields, collectively referred to as “NEAT,” will be developed within the first five years of the production period. The development aims to tap into a discovered Stock-Tank-Oil-Initially-in-Place (“STOIIP”) range spanning from 1,620 to 4,573 million barrels and anticipates the recovery of an estimated 240 to 971 million barrels of contingent resources over the course of the 25-year contract period.

In this paper, TLWs interest sits with how Kenyan demand picks up for energy products versus oil export/ international demand over 25 years against a growing kenyan budget deficit year on year